The most exciting day of football of the year is upon us as we have two solid match ups that will determine who will be in Super Bowl 46. I am in Park City, Utah for the Sundance Film Festival which marks my 3rd anniversary of my first appearance on SEN 1116 which laid the roots for this website. I am back at Sundance as an executive producer of documentary, just as I was in 2008 (Trouble the Water in ‘08, The House I Live In in ‘12). That year, I had a screening in the morning and then the New England Patriots hosted the AFC Championship game early (that year against San Diego) and the New York Giants went on the road in the late game (to Green Bay) in terrible weather conditions. Sunday I have a 9am screening, Pats host the early game and the Giants go on the road in bad weather. I hope the similarities between leap years will continue as Trouble the Water won the Grand Jury Prize and went on to be nominated for an Academy Award and the New York Football Giants went on to win the Super Bowl and deny the Patriots a 19-0 season. I am not going to be making any predictions on the film festival, but will take a stab at the games. Good luck! Go Giants!
Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.
Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.
San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.
Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.
