NFL Playoffs- Wild Card Weekend
I was very surprised by the quarterback play yesterday with Mark Sanchez out playing Carson Palmer and Tony Romo besting Donavan McNabb. We have some great quarterbacks playing today, I wouldn’t expect too many surprises.
New England Patriots (H) vs Baltimore Ravens (Patriots by 3.5, Total 43.5, opened 4 and 44)
This is a very tough game to handicap. I have really liked the Ravens all year, even though they haven’t been great. They are a very balanced team, but their defense hasn’t been as dominant as it has in previous years. It is hard to go against New England here, they are 8-0 at home this season and 8-0 in home playoff games in the Belichick era. I do not want to buck this trend and am going with the Patriots -3.5. This is a very tough line to lay and may be worth buying the half point to 3. The Patriots will be without wide receiver Wes Welker, that is a big loss, but they have a similar player in Julian Edelman who they will plug into that role. Edelman isn’t nearly the player Welker is, but at least the Patriots won’t have to change their game plan much. I am also going with the Over 43.5. I said earlier the Ravens defense is not the same and the Patriots don’t have that shut down defense either. Both teams have strong offenses and Baltimore’s run game is good in the red zone. The Patriots throw the ball a lot which stops the clock often. The weather will be fine in Foxboro, cold but with only light winds.
Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals (H) (Packers by 2, Total 47.5, opened Cards by 2 and 48)
This is some line move with the favorite flipping and more and more Packers money coming in. Media opinion and fan polls all show incredible support for the Packers. Eleven out of twelve ESPN experts have picked the Packers along with 70% of the fans polled. Being the contrarian that I am, I will be going with the Cardinals +2 at home. There is definitely too big an overreaction from last week’s game. The Cardinals had nothing to play for and Matt Leinart was in at quarterback most of the game. I like the Packers, but think they are very overrated. They played such an easy schedule this year and only have a couple of standout wins. They had to travel from Green Bay to Arizona and back and now are making that trip again, while the Cardinals have been home the whole time. I like the Cardinals defense and think they will play a strong game today against Aaron Rodgers and company. The Cardinals will be without wide receiver Anquan Boldin, he is tough to replace, but the Cardinals have some young receivers tight ends that can step up. Reports are surfacing that Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner will retire after the playoffs, I don’t think today will be his last game. In this game, I am going with the Under 47.5. I think both defenses are strong and the Cardinals are an under team with 6 out of 8 home games and 11 out of 16 games going under.
Patriots -3.5 (2 out of 5)
Over Patriots/Ravens 43.5 (2 out of 5)
Cardinals +2 (3 out of 5)
Under Packers/Cardinals 47.5 (2 out of 5)
