Sep
2016
15

Pick for TNF

Tonight’s pick is just a suggestion and a weak one at that.

Buffalo Bills -1 over the New York Jets  This is a straight public fade as 74% of spread, 75% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Jets.  The point spread has moved accordingly as it opened up at 2.5 and is into 1 with many books having it at pick’em.  Both teams have injury concerns as will always be the case on these awful Thursday night games.  The Jets have important defensive players banged up and the Bills have a lot of question marks and a suspension on their offense.  The Bills have won 5 straight and 6 of 7 in this series both outright and against the spread.  Not much more to say on this game as it truly is a tossup.  I do prefer the home team on Thursday’s although homeys are just around 50% on these TNF games.  As for the total it opened up at 42.5 and is down to 40.5 with 72% of the bets on the over.  That is really a big move in contrary with the public and it seems like the sharps are taking on the squares.  I don’t understand why this total has dropped so much as SportsInsights sportsbooks are reporting that 86% of the money bet is on the over.  The weather should be perfect and the injuries seem like a wash as they are to Bills offensive players and Jets defensive players.  The last 3 matchups have been unders, but just barely 39, 39 and 41 points were scored with totals of 41, 42 and 42.  The market is telling you to take the under, but the value was getting it at 42.5, 42 and 41.5.

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