Oct
2016
24

Pick for MNF

Not a good day for the picks going 2-3 and losing my best bet.  Very disappointed as the late line moves only confirmed the Jacksonville Jaguars as they went out -2 from -1.5 with 75% of spread bets on the Oakland Raiders.  The Tennessee Titans were 4-point favorites (3.5 on Saturday) with 52% of spread bets on the Indianapolis Colts.  The most confounding of all are the New England Patriots who again cover as massive public favorites and yet again the line doesn’t move.  The Pats were -7 and didn’t budge in the face of 82% of the spread bets.  Since Tom Brady has returned the Pats have seen 82%, 76% and 82% of spread bets and have covered each of those games.  Though yesterday’s game was the toughest to swallow as the Steelers moved the ball just as well as New England, but couldn’t execute in the red zone while the Pats did.  The pool picks did much better going 5-2-1 with the Arizona Cardinals -1 a tough beat in the 6-6 tie against the Seattle Seahawks last night.

Tonight’s game is the weakest of suggestions.

Denver Broncos -7.5 over the Houston Texans  The line opened up 6, but quickly went out to 7 and as far out as 9/9.5 and now back into 7.5 and I would think might come in to 7.  It does seem surprisingly high considering the Texans are coming off a comeback win on primetime and the Broncos are off two bad losses.  62% of spread, 58% of moneyline and 72% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Broncos.  As 7.5-point favorites they are prime to be put in a 2-side teaser taking them down to -1.5 and then moving the total to take under 46.5 or over 34.5 (the latter being the more popular one).  I really should be taking the Texans, especially if the line comes in as this can’t be that “fishy” a line if the bets are coming in on the Broncos at this current rate.  There is not much else to go on, but I’ll go with my gut and take the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler will be returning to Denver and I’m sure they know his weaknesses.  That is very dangerous with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, Jr. lurking in the Broncos secondary.  As for the total it opened up 41.5 and is down to 40 with bets split right down the middle.  That would have me leaning towards the under, but weather should be fine and there is plenty of offensive talent on the field.

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