Pick for TNF

I promised on Twitter to make picks this week and I will start off with a pretty strong suggestion for Thursday night.

Chicago Bears +7.5 over the Green Bay Packers  The line opened up 9 and is into 7.5 with 68% of spread, 69% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets on the Packers.  The line move in is mainly due to the injuries on the Packers side.  They are without their top two running backs and are extremely thin in the secondary.  The injury news on the Bears side is a little bit better, but as is usual in Thursday night games Chicago will be missing some key players.  The fact that Jay Cutler will be out again is probably a plus as Brian Hoyer isn’t as mistake prone.  Trends are terrible here for the Bears as the Packers usually are great against the spread at home and in October while the Bears have a terrible ATS run in the division.  The favorite is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups in this series (which is also Green Bay’s record).  This is a different Green Bay Packers team and very different looking Aaron Rodgers.  He doesn’t have the same confidence and is making terrible mistakes turning over the football.  The fact he is going to be without running backs he is comfortable with makes me think tonight might not be the night he gets right.  I rarely like road teams on Thursday night’s but this is such a short trip for the Bears.  As for the total it is down from 47 to 46/46.5 with 54% of the bets on the over.  The market isn’t indicating anything with trends leaning towards the under.  I would stay away my instinct would be to take the under, but the Packers lacking a running game while having a good rush defense and poor pass defense means both teams will be looking to throw the ball.

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