Oct
2016
22

Picks for NFL Week 7

It didn’t start well with a loss on Thursday night as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense got right against the Chicago Bears.  I have 5 official selections and the rest of the games are all pool picks that I will list in rotation order.

Official Selections (In order of strength of opinion):

Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 over the Oakland Raiders  The best bet week is a huge public fade as 78% of spread, 74% of moneyline and 85% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Raiders.  The line has moved slightly towards the Jaguars as it opened up 1 and is now at 1.5.  This is a 10am body clock start for the west coast Raiders.

New York Jets -2 over the Baltimore Ravens  Very nice market divergence as 74%/76%/85% of spread/moneyline/combo bets are on the Ravens (really betting against the Jets and QB Geno Smith), yet this line has gone from pick’em to Jets by 2.  I think the quarterback switch for the Jets to Smith from Ryan Fitzpatrick will give New York a one week spark.  There a lot of injuries to the Baltimore defense and the wind will we require Smith to use his legs.  I don’t think the Ravens will have much success against the Jets defense in the high winds as it is their secondary where they are weak.  Jets get linebacker David Harris back whose loss was evident on Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 over the Indianapolis Colts  Line has gone from 2 to 3.5, but it isn’t public driven.  Injuries seem like a bit of the factor, but this move into “fishy” territory feels like “wise guys”.  Not much else to go on, but the market.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 over the Minnesota Vikings  I don’t like going against teams that are off bye weeks, like the Vikings, but I think the week off could slow down their momentum.  The public loves the purple with 76% of spread, 58% of moneline and 88% of multi bets on Minnesota.  The line has edged out from 2.5 to 3 which I don’t like to see, but happy to get that half-point.  It should be a low-scoring game as high winds are expected in Philly.  This is a tough bet to make as the Vikings are on a great run of winning against the spread.  The Eagles know QB Sam Bradford’s weaknesses and the Philly crowd should make him feel very uncomfortable in the “City of Brotherly Love”.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over the New England Patriots  Another very very hard bet and a massive public fade as 88%/77%/87% of SPD/ML/PRLY bets are on the popular Pats and against Pittsburgh QB Landry Jones.  Ben Roethlisberger is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  Jones doesn’t excite me, but the Steelers are creative and they have an excellent running back and a special wide receiver in Antonio Brown.  New England struggles on grass going just 5-12 against the spread in the last 17 games on natural stuff.  The Heinz Stadium field is usually a mess which should frustrate the Pats and favor the home squad.

Pool Picks (In rotation order):

New York Giants -2.5 over the Los Angeles Rams  Could go either way with this game, the spread hasn’t moved as it is between 2.5 and 3 and bets are split.  I will go the closer team in the Giants as Los Angeles has a really long trip to London.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 over the New Orleans Saints  Andy Reid extended his record to 16-2 after bye weeks last week and I think he keeps the roll going.  Bets are split and line is in a half-point, nothing interesting in the market.  Though I’m not feeling very confident and weather should be perfect for the dome Saints.  Bad feeling this will be a Chiefs win, but no cover.

Detroit Lions -1 over the Washington Redskins  The Redskins are seeing a little more of the action with the line not having moved at all.  I will side with the home team, but there really is nothing to go one with this game.

Cleveland Browns +10 over the Cincinnati Bengals  The Browns have been competitive and I think they try not to embarrass the city as Indians and Cavaliers have made them so proud.  I think Cleveland keeps it close against the rival Bengals, who are struggling team.  The line is unchanged with the Cincy seeing more of the action.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 over the Buffalo Bills  Line hasn’t moved with the red hot Bills seeing a small edge in wagers.  I will go with the home team with some heat and humidity in the forecast.  It’s not as last week, but the Bills are shorthanded and their star running back LeSean McCoy doubtful.

San Diego Chargers +6 over the Atlanta Falcons  The market is providing nothing as the line is unchanged and bets are split.  I’ll with the Chargers who are good on the road against the Falcons who have struggled recently against the spread at home.  This is a 4pm ET time game which should make the Chargers feel comfortable.  The Falcons have to be exhausted after trips to Denver and Seattle.  The week after playing the Seahawks is usually very tough for teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over the San Francisco 49ers  I am going against the market here Tampa Bay is seeing a little bit more action, yet the line has moved from Bucs by 2.5 to Niners by 1.  I really should be tipping the Niners, but I feel the Bucs off their bye week will take advantage of the poor Niners defense.

Arizona Cardinals -1 over the Seattle Seahawks  This line opened up Cards by 2.5, but the move in seems publicly driven.  I feel that Arizona has got the ship righted and should win this huge rivalry game at home.  Though as the odds suggest this should be a battle.

 

 

 

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