American Football Archives

Oct
2016
24

Pick for MNF

Not a good day for the picks going 2-3 and losing my best bet.  Very disappointed as the late line moves only confirmed the Jacksonville Jaguars as they went out -2 from -1.5 with 75% of spread bets on the Oakland Raiders.  The Tennessee Titans were 4-point favorites (3.5 on Saturday) with 52% of spread bets on the Indianapolis Colts.  The most confounding of all are the New England Patriots who again cover as massive public favorites and yet again the line doesn’t move.  The Pats were -7 and didn’t budge in the face of 82% of the spread bets.  Since Tom Brady has returned the Pats have seen 82%, 76% and 82% of spread bets and have covered each of those games.  Though yesterday’s game was the toughest to swallow as the Steelers moved the ball just as well as New England, but couldn’t execute in the red zone while the Pats did.  The pool picks did much better going 5-2-1 with the Arizona Cardinals -1 a tough beat in the 6-6 tie against the Seattle Seahawks last night.

Tonight’s game is the weakest of suggestions.

Denver Broncos -7.5 over the Houston Texans  The line opened up 6, but quickly went out to 7 and as far out as 9/9.5 and now back into 7.5 and I would think might come in to 7.  It does seem surprisingly high considering the Texans are coming off a comeback win on primetime and the Broncos are off two bad losses.  62% of spread, 58% of moneyline and 72% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Broncos.  As 7.5-point favorites they are prime to be put in a 2-side teaser taking them down to -1.5 and then moving the total to take under 46.5 or over 34.5 (the latter being the more popular one).  I really should be taking the Texans, especially if the line comes in as this can’t be that “fishy” a line if the bets are coming in on the Broncos at this current rate.  There is not much else to go on, but I’ll go with my gut and take the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler will be returning to Denver and I’m sure they know his weaknesses.  That is very dangerous with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, Jr. lurking in the Broncos secondary.  As for the total it opened up 41.5 and is down to 40 with bets split right down the middle.  That would have me leaning towards the under, but weather should be fine and there is plenty of offensive talent on the field.

Oct
2016
22

Picks for NFL Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 over the Oakland Raiders  

New York Jets -2 over the Baltimore Ravens  

Tennessee Titans -3.5 over the Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia Eagles +3 over the Minnesota Vikings  

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over the New England Patriots

Oct
2016
22

Picks for NFL Week 7

It didn’t start well with a loss on Thursday night as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense got right against the Chicago Bears.  I have 5 official selections and the rest of the games are all pool picks that I will list in rotation order.

Official Selections (In order of strength of opinion):

Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 over the Oakland Raiders  The best bet week is a huge public fade as 78% of spread, 74% of moneyline and 85% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Raiders.  The line has moved slightly towards the Jaguars as it opened up 1 and is now at 1.5.  This is a 10am body clock start for the west coast Raiders.

New York Jets -2 over the Baltimore Ravens  Very nice market divergence as 74%/76%/85% of spread/moneyline/combo bets are on the Ravens (really betting against the Jets and QB Geno Smith), yet this line has gone from pick’em to Jets by 2.  I think the quarterback switch for the Jets to Smith from Ryan Fitzpatrick will give New York a one week spark.  There a lot of injuries to the Baltimore defense and the wind will we require Smith to use his legs.  I don’t think the Ravens will have much success against the Jets defense in the high winds as it is their secondary where they are weak.  Jets get linebacker David Harris back whose loss was evident on Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 over the Indianapolis Colts  Line has gone from 2 to 3.5, but it isn’t public driven.  Injuries seem like a bit of the factor, but this move into “fishy” territory feels like “wise guys”.  Not much else to go on, but the market.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 over the Minnesota Vikings  I don’t like going against teams that are off bye weeks, like the Vikings, but I think the week off could slow down their momentum.  The public loves the purple with 76% of spread, 58% of moneline and 88% of multi bets on Minnesota.  The line has edged out from 2.5 to 3 which I don’t like to see, but happy to get that half-point.  It should be a low-scoring game as high winds are expected in Philly.  This is a tough bet to make as the Vikings are on a great run of winning against the spread.  The Eagles know QB Sam Bradford’s weaknesses and the Philly crowd should make him feel very uncomfortable in the “City of Brotherly Love”.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over the New England Patriots  Another very very hard bet and a massive public fade as 88%/77%/87% of SPD/ML/PRLY bets are on the popular Pats and against Pittsburgh QB Landry Jones.  Ben Roethlisberger is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  Jones doesn’t excite me, but the Steelers are creative and they have an excellent running back and a special wide receiver in Antonio Brown.  New England struggles on grass going just 5-12 against the spread in the last 17 games on natural stuff.  The Heinz Stadium field is usually a mess which should frustrate the Pats and favor the home squad.

Pool Picks (In rotation order):

New York Giants -2.5 over the Los Angeles Rams  Could go either way with this game, the spread hasn’t moved as it is between 2.5 and 3 and bets are split.  I will go the closer team in the Giants as Los Angeles has a really long trip to London.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 over the New Orleans Saints  Andy Reid extended his record to 16-2 after bye weeks last week and I think he keeps the roll going.  Bets are split and line is in a half-point, nothing interesting in the market.  Though I’m not feeling very confident and weather should be perfect for the dome Saints.  Bad feeling this will be a Chiefs win, but no cover.

Detroit Lions -1 over the Washington Redskins  The Redskins are seeing a little more of the action with the line not having moved at all.  I will side with the home team, but there really is nothing to go one with this game.

Cleveland Browns +10 over the Cincinnati Bengals  The Browns have been competitive and I think they try not to embarrass the city as Indians and Cavaliers have made them so proud.  I think Cleveland keeps it close against the rival Bengals, who are struggling team.  The line is unchanged with the Cincy seeing more of the action.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 over the Buffalo Bills  Line hasn’t moved with the red hot Bills seeing a small edge in wagers.  I will go with the home team with some heat and humidity in the forecast.  It’s not as last week, but the Bills are shorthanded and their star running back LeSean McCoy doubtful.

San Diego Chargers +6 over the Atlanta Falcons  The market is providing nothing as the line is unchanged and bets are split.  I’ll with the Chargers who are good on the road against the Falcons who have struggled recently against the spread at home.  This is a 4pm ET time game which should make the Chargers feel comfortable.  The Falcons have to be exhausted after trips to Denver and Seattle.  The week after playing the Seahawks is usually very tough for teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over the San Francisco 49ers  I am going against the market here Tampa Bay is seeing a little bit more action, yet the line has moved from Bucs by 2.5 to Niners by 1.  I really should be tipping the Niners, but I feel the Bucs off their bye week will take advantage of the poor Niners defense.

Arizona Cardinals -1 over the Seattle Seahawks  This line opened up Cards by 2.5, but the move in seems publicly driven.  I feel that Arizona has got the ship righted and should win this huge rivalry game at home.  Though as the odds suggest this should be a battle.

 

 

 

Oct
2016
20

Pick for TNF

Chicago Bears +7.5 over the Green Bay Packers

Oct
2016
20

Pick for TNF

I promised on Twitter to make picks this week and I will start off with a pretty strong suggestion for Thursday night.

Chicago Bears +7.5 over the Green Bay Packers  The line opened up 9 and is into 7.5 with 68% of spread, 69% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets on the Packers.  The line move in is mainly due to the injuries on the Packers side.  They are without their top two running backs and are extremely thin in the secondary.  The injury news on the Bears side is a little bit better, but as is usual in Thursday night games Chicago will be missing some key players.  The fact that Jay Cutler will be out again is probably a plus as Brian Hoyer isn’t as mistake prone.  Trends are terrible here for the Bears as the Packers usually are great against the spread at home and in October while the Bears have a terrible ATS run in the division.  The favorite is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups in this series (which is also Green Bay’s record).  This is a different Green Bay Packers team and very different looking Aaron Rodgers.  He doesn’t have the same confidence and is making terrible mistakes turning over the football.  The fact he is going to be without running backs he is comfortable with makes me think tonight might not be the night he gets right.  I rarely like road teams on Thursday night’s but this is such a short trip for the Bears.  As for the total it is down from 47 to 46/46.5 with 54% of the bets on the over.  The market isn’t indicating anything with trends leaning towards the under.  I would stay away my instinct would be to take the under, but the Packers lacking a running game while having a good rush defense and poor pass defense means both teams will be looking to throw the ball.

Sep
2016
19

Pick for MNF

Chicago Bears -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles

Sep
2016
19

Pick for MNF

I still am not sure about the future of the website.  I am going to at least finish up Week 2 with my 5th official selection which will determine whether the week is positive or negative (2-2).

Chicago Bears -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles

This line opened  up at 1 and it is out to 3 with 53% of spread, 62% of moneyline and 59% of parlay and teaser bets on the Eagles.  It will be the 2nd career start for Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz.  He looked good in his first start, but that was at home against the lowly Cleveland Browns.  It won’t be as easy in Soldier Field for the Bears home opener at night.

Sep
2016
18

Picks for NFL Week 2

I don’t know if I will be making picks after this week.  I have picks for today, but with little explanation.

Official Selections (In order of opinion strength):

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 over the Green Bay Packers  Today’s best bet as linover e is in from 2.5 to 1.5 with 80% of bets on the Packers.  It is the first game at U.S. Bank Stadium.  Sam Bradford will be getting the start for the Vikings at QB.

Washington Redskins -3 over the Dallas Cowboys  Line edging out with public on the underdog.

Los Angeles Rams +6 over the Seattle Seahawks  Line is in a half-point with 3/4ers of the bets on Seattle.  First NFL game in Los Angeles since 1994.

New York Giants -4 over the New Orleans Saints  Bets split with line out from 3.5 to 4.  Looked better last night when Giants were 5-point favorites.

 

Clear Cut Pool Picks (In order of opinion strength):  

Denver Broncos -6 over the Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions -6 over the Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans -1 over the Kansas City Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 over the Arizona Cardinals

 

Coin Toss Pool Pick (In rotation order):  

Miami Dolphins +6.5 over the New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns +5 over the Baltimore Ravens 

Cincinnati Bengals +3 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers -13 over the San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta Falcons +4 over the Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers +3 over the Jacksonville Jaguars

Sep
2016
15

Pick for TNF

Buffalo Bills -1 over the New York Jets

Sep
2016
15

Pick for TNF

Tonight’s pick is just a suggestion and a weak one at that.

Buffalo Bills -1 over the New York Jets  This is a straight public fade as 74% of spread, 75% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Jets.  The point spread has moved accordingly as it opened up at 2.5 and is into 1 with many books having it at pick’em.  Both teams have injury concerns as will always be the case on these awful Thursday night games.  The Jets have important defensive players banged up and the Bills have a lot of question marks and a suspension on their offense.  The Bills have won 5 straight and 6 of 7 in this series both outright and against the spread.  Not much more to say on this game as it truly is a tossup.  I do prefer the home team on Thursday’s although homeys are just around 50% on these TNF games.  As for the total it opened up at 42.5 and is down to 40.5 with 72% of the bets on the over.  That is really a big move in contrary with the public and it seems like the sharps are taking on the squares.  I don’t understand why this total has dropped so much as SportsInsights sportsbooks are reporting that 86% of the money bet is on the over.  The weather should be perfect and the injuries seem like a wash as they are to Bills offensive players and Jets defensive players.  The last 3 matchups have been unders, but just barely 39, 39 and 41 points were scored with totals of 41, 42 and 42.  The market is telling you to take the under, but the value was getting it at 42.5, 42 and 41.5.