Unfortunately if you know I analyze games I won’t be picking the Giants to win. I also will be taking the over, along with a bunch of props that follow along those same lines. Here they are. Go G-Men, bring that trophy home.

New England Patriots -3 (Even) over the New York Giants It is astonishing to me just how much support from every element of the public the Giants have in this game. I know I am in New York and their is a lot of local bias, but so much of the national media is in support of the Giants. The bet percentages are only 60-40 in favor of the underdog, but that is a significant about considering how big the Super Bowl is bet. The line has trickled in a bit from -3 to -3 even money, -120 if you take the Giants +3. I do think that casinos and sportsbooks are going to be rooting very heavily for the Pats. It also surprises me how many people think the Giants should be favored in this game and would take the Giants if the line were pick ‘em. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady with two weeks to prepare against a defense that has shown major vulnerabilities is very scary. The Patriots having lost earlier this year to the Giants and in Super Bowl 42 I think makes them even more dangerous. Tom Brady coming off a subpar game last week and motivated by the Giants defense talking all week also does not bode well either. As for the Rob Gronkowski injury, I think he will play and be somewhat effective, but mostly as a decoy. I think that Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch will all have big games attacking the middle of the Giants defense with a short quick passing game designed to neutralize the Giants pass rush. I think that the Patriots will also spread the field and attack that same soft middle using their running backs with draws and screens. I also think that there will be some creativity in the red zone that will result in touchdowns for the Pats and not field goals. On the other side of the ball I expect the Giants to move the ball well and score too, expect some turnovers. The Giants haven’t been turning the ball over, but again this where I think Bill Belichick excels. With two weeks to prepare I fear him using coverages that will confuse Eli Manning and force a mistake or two. I also think that the Patriots have an advantage in the special teams as well.

Giants/Patriots Over 54 Again fading the public here, who actually is backing the under. Not usual to see that especially in a Super Bowl where the public usually likes taking overs. When you here all of those media score prediction almost none of them have the winner breaking 30 points. I think there is a chance that both teams exceed 30 points. I think both teams have excellent offenses and weaker defenses. As well as the Giants defense has been playing I think the Pats will pick them apart. In 2008 both teams moved the ball well, but there were no big plays. I would expect to see both teams make big plays down field with the passing game. I think both teams will be efficient in the read zone and I think that there will be some turnovers creating points and short fields. The total has come down from 56 to 54 which isn’t the best sign, but still the number is “high” for most of the square bettors.

As for prop bets, I have a few general thoughts. First it seems the Giants will have the ball first. When the Giants win the coin toss they usually take the ball. They took it 30 times in row until they didn’t in week 17 and then again last week in NFC championship game. If the Pats win the coin toss they almost certainly will defer. That could be useful information in some props (Giants to score first, Giants first in red zone, etc.). I also like the over and a lot of the over props: Brady’s passing, Welker and Herndandez receiving. I think taking the under in the Gronkowski props are a good play as well with him hurting and a lot of concerns of his second half play. Here are some other plays.

New York Giants Score First -115 I think the Giants will get the ball and have a successful first drive with their script and at least pick up a field goal. Another good bet is team to score first loses at +140.

Tom Brady 20-1 and Eli Manning 25-1 to score the first TD of the game I always like taking the QBs to score the first touchdown in big games. I think that they trust themselves more than any of their teammates to score such an important TD in an important game. Tom Brady is more likely being a QB sneak master.

Aaron Hernandez longest reception over 19.5 yards I like all of the overs in Hernandez, but this one especially. I see him making a few big plays down the field with this speed and the weak Giants defensive middle.

Wes Welker Over Recpetions 7 I think with the Gronkowski injury Wes Welker becomes the main target for Tom Brady and he will have a lot of short receptions that will move the chains for the Pats.

Victor Cruz longest reception Under 28 yards I think the Patriots defense will not allow Victor Cruz to break any long plays. I think he has a decent game but most of his stuff comes short.

Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.

Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.

Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.

Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.

Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.

Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 over the Houston Texans Public was split on this one 50-50, but now is at 57%. Line hasn’t moved off of 7.5. Don’t feel so strongly about this one. I really like the Texans defense and running game, but I think rookie T.J. Yates will have a tough time at QB against that Ravens defense. I think the Ravens run the ball well and make a few plays in the passing game. I talked last week about Jonathan Joseph’s move from Cincinnati to Houston in the offseason. I like the addition of Vontae Leach at fullback for the Ravens from the Texans. I think Ray Rice is just a little better today than the incredible Arian Foster. Seven and a hook is a tough number, but it is one that usually scares the public away from the favorite.

Texans/Ravens Under 37 I really like this under. Total opened 38.5 and has dropped, yet 70% is on the over. I would expect a very conservative game plan by both teams. The Texans have an excellent pass defense and a rookie QB. Should make for lots of run plays and clock movement. The only thing that scares me are both defenses abilities to make plays that could result in defensive points or short fields. Weather shouldn’t be that bad, a bit windy not too cold.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 over the New York Giants Again the public is starting to support the home team, but still 60% of their action is on the Giants. Line has moved in a bit from 9 to 7.5. I think there are some short memories, the Packers have been dominant all year and they took the Giants best shot at their place and still got the victory. I think at home off the bye the Packers should play an even better game. I feel the Giants bandwagon is getting a little too full and they are getting a little overconfident.

Giants Packers Under 53 I don’t feel very strongly about this one, total has jumped from 51 to 53. Public is 79% on the over but they have been getting paid all year as the rules in the new NFL is making for lots of shootouts. It will be cold and windy today in Green Bay. First game was very high scoring, I would expect a slower paced game today. Just hard to imagine there won’t be big plays with the offensive talent on the field.

San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over the New Orleans Saints This is my best bet of the weekend as I like the 49ers to win outright. If you have read my picks before you know how often I have supported the 49ers and how I am consistently picking against the Saints (how ever I did have them last week where the public wasn’t all over them). 64% of the public is on the Saints this week as the line is approaching 3 in some places. The 49ers have that excellent defense and offensive line and I think the home field advantage will be a big factor for the 49ers.

Saints/49ers Under 47 Not too confident on this pick, public is only 57% on the over with San Fran being a very low total team. The 49ers are a field goal making team and have a shut down defense. They aren’t going to completely shut down the Saints and I do expect the Niners to win so I think they will find the end zone a few times today. I really expect the score to be right around this total. I would still take the under as I expect the 49ers to work the clock and force Drew Brees and the Saints to punt. The O/U opened 47.5 and is approaching 46.5 in some places another reason to lean toward the under.

New England Patriots -13.5 over the Denver Broncos This is a tough one to take because as I have said Tim Tebow has made the Broncos the hardest team to handicap. I amazed last week at the Broncos ability to score on the Steelers defense, I don’t expect the same today against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. They played earlier this year with the Pats winning 41-23 and holding the Broncos to only seven 2nd half points. Public is split down the middle, I always like the favorite in this case. Line has come in a half since opening 14 another reason I am not as excited about this selection.

Broncos/Patriots Under 50 Public is 65% on the over after the Broncos exploded past last week’s low total (which I actually had right because I faded my own opinion) and every one remembering that 64 point total score in Denver. I think this will be a much lower scoring game. I talked about the Pats and Belichick ability to game plan against Tebow and this week I expect Denver shut down. It will be a cold and windy night and I don’t see Tebow connecting on the deep ball. I expect the Patriots to run the ball, run the clock and tire the Broncos defense. Total opened 51 and is approaching 49.5, when people start to see the weather conditions before game time I think you could see this total drop. I would take it ASAP.

Atlanta Falcons +3 over the New York Giants Not much to go on here public is 60/40 on the favorite Giants and the line hasn’t moved. The Giants are an inconsistent team and you never know the effort you are going to get. They have played 2 strong games in row and this playoff game could actually be a let down after beating two huge rivals in the Jets and the Cowboys. Atlanta might have the slightly better overall team, but playing outdoors on the road in the playoffs could be tough for them. The Giants have the edge at QB and could see another 4th quarter comeback. I expect a very close game and I think the 3 points could be a factor with these teams so even.

Falcons/Giants Under 47.5 I have been getting burned with NFL unders, even though this seems like one that lines up pretty well. Total opened 49 and has dropped yet 73% of the public is on the over. I would expect the Falcons to try to run the ball a lot and that should work the clock a bit. The Giants defense has played a lot better and they have been getting their pass rush going. The weather conditions should be pretty good, so there isn’t support for the under there. Also the way these games are being played no under is safe, we saw that last night the Lions/Saints game after a slow start big plays are prevalent in this era of the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 over the Denver Broncos I have been going back and forth on this game all week. The Steelers injuries are really curbing any enthusiasm for the this pick. I just don’t see how the Broncos are going to score points against the Steelers defense. Just seems to be a perfect match up for them even without safety Ryan Clark. Again no info gleamed from line moves or the public as the line hasn’t moved off 8 and public is 56% on the favorite. I do fear the Broncos pass rush and worry about the health of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger as he is going to get pressured with a makeshift offensive line in front of him.

Steelers/Broncos over 33.5 I really don’t want to pick this one and I am actually fading my own thoughts as just obvious public opinion. Total has dropped from 35.5 to 33.5, but it is the public dropping it as it just seems so obvious this will be an extremely low scoring game. I suggestion a 13-3 score earlier, but something tells me there will be some surprise scoring. I think the defenses will get TDs and good field position as the game will feature a lot of turnovers. Weather is going to be cold, but no wind or precipitation. I think that maybe Tim Tebow will connect on a long bomb for a TD as will Roethlisberger with his talented wideouts. Also if Denver is trailing in this post-season game they will try to throw suggesting points for the Steelers D, similar to the Buffalo Bills in that 40-14 loss.

Houston Texans -4 over the Cincinnati Bengals I really like this one a lot, a bunch of factors combining to make for a solid selection. Line opened up 3 and has moved to 4, yet the public is on the underdog Bengals (slightly). Houston has known their playoff fate as the 3rd seed for a few weeks and have taken it easy to end the season. I liked their effort last week in losing to the Titans and think they will be primed for the franchise’s first playoff game. I think Houston has the slightly better defense and the departure of Jonathan Joseph from the Bengals to the Texans will be a big factor. I think Andre Johnson makes a play or 2 down field while A.J. Green struggles. On top of the Texans having an advantage on D, they also have the better running game with superstar Arian Foster. Both teams start rookie QBs and Andy Dalton is the more experienced, having been the starter all season, and very experienced in college. but so was T.J. Yates. He seems like a capable place holder that get them through this first game, but probably not further.

Bengals/Texans Under 38 I like this one as well, not as much as the Texans because the public is split on the total. About 60% on the over is par, so usually I like to go over when it is 50-50, but not here. I think that both coaches will be very conservative with rookie QBs and will run the ball a lot and defenses will key on that. Both teams have excellent defenses and I see a lot of punting and field goals. With two young teams with limit postseason experience, I do fear some mistakes resulting in defensive or special teams TDs.

New Orleans Saints -10.5 over the Detroit Lions I don’t like this one as much, but you still have a scenario where the line has moved from 9.5 to 10.5 yet only 59% are on the favored Saints (about par). I think the Saints are virtually unstoppable offensively at home as Drew Brees is on top of his game. I think that their playoff experience, especially losing in this round last year will be a big advantage. I could see the Lions being a bit nervous in their first playoff game in a decade in the craziness of the Superdome. Having played their earlier this year and playing in a lot of domes does lessen that a bit. I think the Saints defense will make some plays and the Saints will win the turnover battle. I think the Saints advantage with the running game will be a factor as well.

Lions/Saints Under 59.5 Total opened 58 and is climbing, would think you will see 60+ by game time. 80% of the public is on the over and I think a lot of the “wise guys” are sitting this one out on the under. It is hard to believe these teams won’t put up a lot of points, but I am still going to wait until game time and go under. I think in the playoffs you could see some early nerves and maybe a slow start. I think the Saints will run the ball well and will work the clock down a bit. This is a scary one, and betting unders in these teams games have been ugly of late, but I think you could get some value taking a NFL playoff game under 60.

One note on props. The odds for players to score 1st touchdown, I like taking QBs, so if you can get good odds (20-1 or more) on T.J Yates, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford go for it. I think especially in playoff games QBs trust themselves around the goal line to get that first score.

Miami Dolphins -3 over the New York Jets Line has moved from 2 to 3 yet the public is on the underdog Jets. Jets need to win this game while it is “meaningless” for the Dolphins. I am going with the bookmakers here who are expecting a big effort from Miami against their division rivals.

Arizona Cardinals -3 over the Seattle Seahawks 77% of the public is on the underdog which is extremely rare even with the point spread this low. Cardinals have played well with John Skelton under center.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers Public heavy on the Steelers, line has moved to 7 which scares me a bit. I have been on the Browns a lot and they have disappointed, I’m looking for a big effort in this rivalry game.

St Louis Rams +10.5 over the San Francisco 49ers Straight public fade here, hoping the Rams can have one good performance in front of their home crowd and in support of their head coach Steve Spagnuolo who is on the hot seat.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 over the Atlanta Falcons Why not? I’m taking one more shot with the Bucs, the line has moved from 10.5 to 10 so I’m not the only “wise” guy taking them again. Public is obviously on Atlanta.

Minnesota Vikings -2 over the Chicago Bears Line has moved from Bears favored by 1 to now Vikings favored yet public not pushing it. Going to go with the home dome team in the season finale for both teams.

Atlanta Falcons +7 over the New Orleans Saints Line is moving from 6.5 towards 7.5 as the Falcons have clinched a playoff berth and seem locked into a wild card spot, while the Saints are battling for a first round bye. I still like the Falcons though, I think they are the better overall team. New Orleans has the advantage at QB, but Matt Ryan has been hot and he is good in the dome. The Saints also have the advantage in coaching and I have experienced that dome first hand on a Monday night and it is a tough place to play. Public is on the Saints, but not overwhelmingly.

Falcons/Saints Under 53 You know I am going this way, everyone is heavy on the over. Total hasn’t moved off 53 (though probably will go up, I don’t think too much smart money will come in to offset the public barrage on the over. Saints haven’t been the best in the red zone and they are without Mark Ingram and maybe Lance Moore. I expect the Falcons to try to run the ball with their talented running backs.