David Alcaro: The CHieF

Merry Christmas Eve! What a wonderful gift we have in the NFL as we enter the penultimate week of the 2011 season. Sorry no video this week, wasn’t able to get it done with all of the holiday craziness. However I will give out 8 picks for today. They are listed in order of strength. I like my top pick (Seahawks) significantly more than the others, then the next 4 (Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Bucs) are top picks while the final 3 (Bills, Jags and Cards) are lesser picks, but still official selections.

Seattle Seahawks +1 over the San Francisco 49ers Nice trifecta of scenarios here with the 49ers coming off a Monday night win combined with a line move from 3 to 1 and 73% of the public on the Niners. I love taking home dogs less than 3 points and the Seahawks at home. Clear cut best bet.

Cleveland Browns +12 over the Baltimore Ravens On my scrappy Browns again with their solid defense and low scoring games. Really should have had an outright win last week in Arizona. I like them better with Seneca Wallace under center and Patrick Willis in the lineup. Line opened 13.5 while 70% are on the Ravens.

New York Jets -3 over the New York Giants Jets favored by 3 here yet it is pretty much a neutral site game and public is 67% on the Giants. The Giants defense is in shambles and their injuries are just too much to over come. I think the Giants will have a very hard time scoring on the solid Jets corners.

Miami Dolphins +9 over the New England Patriots Another nice combination of line move from 10.5 with public 65% on the Pats. I like the Dolphins on the road. Patriots are coming off big win in Denver and I still think their defense is very weak and the loss of their best pass rusher Andre Carter is big.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 over the Carolina Panthers You wouldn’t think that most popular percentage play by the public would be the Panthers, but it is at 81%. However this is more of a bet against the disgusting Bucs who have lost 8 in a row. Line going the wrong way from 7 to 7.5, but I like that extra half here could come into play.

Buffalo Bills +3 (-120) over the Denver Broncos Line has inched in a bit moving from +3 to +3-120 while 72% are on the now popular Broncos. I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos after that hyped Pats game at home. They have done well as road dogs, but I can see them losing as road favorites.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 over the Tennessee Titans Line opened 7.5 68% of the public is on the Titans. Not much to say about this game. I just see this as a value play that I think hits at around a 55% rate. I think these are the games that make NFL betting.

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals Cards are hot with John Skelton at QB line opened 5.5, 62% is on the Bengals. I think this is another solid value play.

Two suggestions tonight on the NFL game (I do like Arizona State tonight +14 over Boise State, I would take the money line as well (+450 or 9/2 or 5.5).

Indianapolis Colts +7 over the Houston Texans Public is on the Texans pretty heavy here (79%) yet line has only moved from 6.5 to 7. Colts off a win could continue that momentum. T.J. Yates doesn’t look like he is ready to be an starting NFL quarterback just yet. Texans seem like they are going to be locked into that 3rd seed so might not play too hard.

Over 40.5 Colts/Texans Public is not on the over in this nationally televised game, but it is on NFL network which a lot of cable viewers do not get, so the public might just be willing to go under because they won’t be watching. I still like the over in Colts games their offense scores points and their defense is bad. I could see special teams and defenses scoring tonight on that fast track in the dome.

Finally had that big underdog week. The small time bookies cleaned up as did the smart money players this week, long over due. Just a suggestion here tonight. Should be a good game.

San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers Still unsure of Ben Roethlisberger’s status. I think everyone assumes he will play. No real line analysis because the injury is a huge factor. More of the public is on the Steelers tonight, but not by much. I think Jim Harbaugh has received a nice scouting report from his brother John, the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens play the Steelers 2-3 times every year and have beaten them twice this season. It is a key game to decide the AFC North and the Ravens will certainly be rooting for Niners tonight.

Fading the pubic heavy again this week, going with the absolute ugly games.

Washington Redskins +6 over the New York Giants Line has gone from 7.5 and now approaching 5.5 yet the public is on the Giants. Giants are coming off an emotional win and the Redskins have been tough in the division.

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 over the Tennessee Titans I think this is the spot for the Colts to get their win. They have veterans with pride and have looked better with Dan Orlovsky under center. Line opened 7 has come in even with 80%+ on the Titans.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 over the New York Jets Line move from 2 to 3, yet public is on the underdog Jets. Again I think the Eagles veterans will show pride against the loud mouth New York Jets. Eagles got a big boost from the return of Michael Vick last week and he should have a another strong game this week.

These next 4 picks are very tough to make, but I am believer in going against these very popular teams. I think over time you will get value for these plays even if you go through a bad stretch where these big favorites cover.

Kansas City Chiefs +11.5 over the Green Bay Packers Line has moved from 14 and is now approaching 11. Some of that is due to Greg Jennings not playing, but I can’t imagine he is worth 3 points. This is a very tough one, but I think the Chiefs play a spirited game under new head coach Romeo Crennel and QB Kyle Orton. 83% of the public is on the Pack.

Minnesota VIkings +7 over the New Orleans Saints I like the home dome dog, line opened 7 went to 8 and now back in to 7. Looks like Vikings will have Christian Ponder under center and Adrian Peterson in the line up. 86% of the public is with the Who Dat Nation.

St. Louis Rams +7 over the Cincinnati Bengals Line has barely moved from 6.5 to 7 even though Kellen Clemens will get the start at QB for the Rams. Not sure how they will pull this one off, but the Rams had a nice home win against the Saints. 86% of the public is betting against the home dome dog.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over the Arizona Cardinals I have been on the Cards bandwagon for awhile now and have done well, now the public has jumped on and I’m jumping off. Not sure how they will get it done, but the Browns will keep this one close.. 81% of the squares are on Arizona yet there has been no movement in the point spread.

First Saturday night game of the season, just a suggestion.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 over the Dallas Cowboys Going against the public (76% on Dallas) here on the prime time game. Line hasn’t moved too much from 6.5 to 7. Dallas has found a way to lose games or make easy wins close at the end. Tampa Bay has been one of the most disappointing teams of the season, but I could see with the pressure off a better performance.

Just a suggestion tonight, but I feel pretty good about it.

Atlanta Falcons -13.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars Line moved from 10.5 and now approaching 14, yet public isn’t overwhelmingly on Atlanta (58%). I never like Jacksonville on the road and love Matt Ryan and the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. I think Jacksonville will have a hard time scoring today and Atlanta will run all over them with a trio of running backs.

Awful Monday night game. Just a suggestion.

St Louis Rams +9 over the Seattle Seahawks Line opened 10 and has come into 9 yet 66% is on the Seahawks. That being said there is nothing nice I could write about the Rams and I usually like the Seahawks at home. It is pretty amazing to see the Seahawks favored by 9 points over any NFL team.

Another large slate of games. We are taking on the public today big time, think it will be a big day for Vegas and the books. I think at this point in the season especially there is a lot of value betting against the popular teams (i.e. Saints, Patriots and Packers)

Tennessee Titans +3.5 over the New Orleans Saints A lot lining up nicely here to make this the best bet of the day. The line move from 4.5 to 3.5, yet 78% of the public is on the always popular Saints. Saints are coming off back to back home prime time games and now have to go outside on the road in a loud home crowd in Nashville. I see Chris Johnson and the Titans running the ball and the Saints without Mark Ingram struggling in the ground game.

Washington Redskins +8 over the New England Patriots 84% on the Pats yet line has come in from 9 to 8. I still don’t think the Pats have the defense to secure large leads. The Redskins offense has been better of late since settling on the QB/RB duo of Rex Grossman and Roy Helu. The return of Santana Moss has helped, but the loss of TE Fred Davis and T Trent Williams does hurt the Skins here, but still like them to at least keep it close.

Chicago Bears +3.5 over the Denver Broncos Line opened 4 and is now approaching 3. The public is on the now popular Broncos. Bears are without Matt Forte, but now have the whole week to prepare without him. I think Caleb Hanie has a much better day throwing the ball for the Bears. The Bears defense should shut down the Broncos offense, it will just be a matter of will Tim Tebow do something late to get the win and cover.

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over the New York Giants I hate to say this, but this is right up there with the Titans and Redskins as a top pick of the day. Line opened 3.5 and has moved to 4.5, yet 73% of the public are on the underdog Giants. Even with that moral “victory” last week against the Packers the Giants are in a free fall. These teams seem pretty even on paper yet the line is begging the public to take the G-men. The Giants still have major weaknesses on defense and the Cowboys offense should have a big night in Big D.

Oakland Raiders +11.5 over the Green Bay Packers Line hasn’t moved much yet, public is all over the Packers as usual. It is amazing not only the percentage of the public that bets the Packers, but the number of bets placed. As you would expect, this week the 3 most bet games are the Packers, Patriots and the Saints. The Packers defense has shown some weaknesses and they are coming off that very emotional win in New York. I would be shocked if they lose, but I expect the Raiders to be in it late.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over the San Francisco 49ers This is sad as now I am starting to go against the 49ers each week. They used to be so undervalued by the public, but now I think are getting overvalued. 82% are on them this week yet the line is holding firm at 3.5, it did go up to 4 and then I presume smart money knocked it back in. The Cardinals have been much better of late and the 49ers have locked up the division are without their defensive leader Patrick Willis. I think the Cards win this game.