David Alcaro: The CHieF

Just a suggestion, terrible game.

Cleveland Browns +14 over the Pittsburgh Steelers Straight public fade here, 72% on the Steelers yet line hasn’t moved much from 13.5 to 14. Pittsburgh will try to shorten the game and shouldn’t run up the score. I think the Browns are scrappy, but they haven’t been coming through for me of late. There defense isn’t that bad and they should keep the game within 2 TDs.

Just a suggestion tonight well actually 2 suggestions.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over the San Diego Chargers Just basically a public fade here. I always like the Jags at home and think they get a kick in the pants after the firing of head coach Jack Del Rio this week. San Diego’s offensive line is in shambles and their defense has been pretty awful as well. I think it could be a higher scoring game than expected as well with points coming on defense and special teams.

San Diego Chargers/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 39.5 Only a suggestion because I don’t like taking overs when 2 bad teams are playing each other, but the total has jumped from 37.5 to 39.5 yet public isn’t heavily on the over.

Seven picks today with so many divergences between the line and public, we are going to try to follow the smart money and avoid those square plays.

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 over the Dallas Cowboys Huge divergence between the line move (from 6.5 to 4.5) and the public action (84% on the Cowboys). Kevin Kolb will be starting at QB for the Cardinals who should get a boost from that. The Cardinals have been making a lot of plays in the special teams and see that being a big factor today.

Miami Dolphins -3 over the Oakland Raiders Another big divergence here with the line opening 2.5 and now approaching 3.5 while the squares are on the Raiders. Matt Moore has been really solid at QB for the Dolphins and their defense has been playing much better as well. Oakland has the long trip and a 1pm eastern time start to deal with as well.

Washington Redskins +3 over the New York Jets Again the line opened 3.5 and is approaching 2.5, yet Joe Public on the Jets. Redskins are starting to look better with Rex Grossman back at the helm. They have Santana Moss back and seem to have found their running back in Roy Helu. The Jets are still having a hard time running the ball.

Cleveland Browns +7 over the Baltimore Ravens I have liked the Browns as a dog recently, they play tough and are pretty scrappy. They are getting healthier and keep games close. Public heavy on the Ravens here (83%). Always like getting points at home in a division game.

Houston Texans +1.5 over the Atlanta Falcons The week of divergences continue here with a slight line move from 2.5 to 1.5 yet the public is betting against T.J. Yates and the Houston Texans. Houston still has that strong run game and the really good defense and even though Yates is a rookie QB was a very experienced college QB at UNC and think he can manage the Texans to a win.

New York Giants +6.5 over the Green Bay Packers Line opened 7, 78% of the public on the Packers. I think the Giants have to bounce back after that poor defensive performance Monday night. I think even without Osi Umenyiora they will get that pass rush dialed up and pressure Aaron Rodgers. I think Eli Manning has a big game even with some injuries to the wide receivers.

Minnesota Vikings +1 over the Denver Broncos Only game I picked where the line hasn’t moved my way but from Minny favored by 1 to Denver favored by 1 isn’t too big a deal. The Broncos are 5-1 with Tim Tebow at QB, but still aren’t scoring a lot of points. Their defense has been great, but stud rookie LB Von Miller is injured and may not play. I think Christian Ponder has a solid outing today.

No official pick tonight, but 2 suggestions.

Seattle Seahawks +3 over the Philadelphia Eagles Seahawks are usually a strong home team and I think the Eagles give up here in a tough spot on the road in a short week. The public is on the Eagles here, but the line move from 2.5 to 3 doesn’t show any smart money on the other side.

Philadelphia Eagles/Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5 Public is not on the over, which is odd, I think the over is a play with the Eagles poor defense and even with injuries some offensive weapons. I see the defenses or special teams scoring as well.

Tough day yesterday, had some great chances to cover, but neither the Colts or Vikings could get TDs late. I like the game tonight (unfortunately because of the team on going against) and it is an official pick.

New Orleans Saints -7.5 over the New York Giants The Saints are home off their bye week and should be the healthier of the two teams. Also with extra preparation time Sean Payton should give Drew Brees a game plan to avoid the Giants pass rush and take advantage of the the soft middle of their defense (Michael Boley is out). The Giants also don’t have much of a running game and that will limit their offense in what will be loud and rocking Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The line opened 6.5 and has moved out to 7.5, yet the public isn’t that heavy on the favorite.