American Football Archives

Feb
2016
04

A Sports Fans Argument Against Donald Trump

As the domain name suggests since starting this blog in the summer of 2009 I have written almost exclusively about sports. Starting in September of 2015 I decided to venture into the world of politics. The plan was just to provide color on the various different wagers offered on the Betfair.com exchange on the 2016 US Presidential election and stay out of the political discussion. Though it was impossible not to observe the campaigns and watch the debates without having an opinion. Quickly I realized that this race wasn’t about who I wanted to see win, but who I didn’t what as our next Commander-in-Chief. I’m 39 and the United States is the most divided it has been in my lifetime and I believe will become only more fractured if Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump were to win.

trumpclown2

Mrs. Clinton is a criminal and is despised by a very large portion of this country. Senator Sanders is a communist (socialist I guess), but I can’t believe we have to defend capitalism in America. Mr. Trump is a clown that has hijacked the Republican Party using hateful rhetoric and his celebrity. Trump is by far the most divisive of the candidates and the one that I fear the most for the future of this country (Congress won’t let Sanders abandon capitalism). I think Donald Trump is vastly unqualified to be the POTUS.

Trump is one of the most overrated business men of all time. He is fooling his conservative supporters and true conservatives have spoken out against him. “The Donald” says he will put together a great team of people, but has Sarah Palin stumping for him. He is a phony and a fake that has flipped-flopped on his positions countless times. The whole campaign is a charade and he consistently insults his base of support and they are too stupid to even realize it. He is a brilliant showman and a gifted politician, but it would be an embarrassment if he were elected President of the United States. I will use just his interactions with the sports world to demonstrate this.

Donald Trump is an Overrated Businessman

Fred (“KKK”) Trump may have been a brilliant businessman, but his son Donald Trump inherited his money. Forbes magazine estimated Donald’s worth at $200 million in 1982. Had he invested that money in the S&P 500 he would be worth $8.3 billion today instead of the $4 billion currently estimated by Forbes. He has lived lavishly and had to pay for a couple of divorces, but he has made a lot of money in Reality TV and by selling his “brand”. The Kardashian family has made a lot of money in “non-scripted” television and branding as well. With all this money and the zest for fame you would think Donald Trump would own a sports franchise. He once did. In 1983 he purchased the New Jersey Generals of the newly inaugurated USFL (United States Football League). Trump encouraged the league that played in the spring to compete directly with the NFL and move to the fall. He was hoping to force a merger as a way to get into the NFL. This decision and the impending failed law suit sunk the upstart football leagueand that was his only foray into ownership of a professional sports team. There is an ESPN “30 for 30” documentary titled “Small Potatoes: Who Killed the USFL?” As you can see from this trailer we know who the filmmaker thinks is the culprit.

Virtually any purchase of a sports franchise in one of the big 4 US team sports leagues in the early 1980’s would have outperformed Trump’s real estate returns and it would have been much harder to go bankrupt, especially if he bought in his native New York City. Trump said he was interested in buying the Buffalo Bills when they came up for sale in 2014. He said he could have bought them if he really wanted them, but wasn’t going to pay the “ridiculous” price of $1.4 billion Terry Pegula paid. Self-made billionaire and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said Trump wasn’t liquid enough to buy the Bills on his own while calling him a “paper tiger”. I would be shocked that even if Trump had made the highest bid 24 of 31 other NFL owners would have approved the purchase as required by league rules. By pushing the USFL to the fall the “great dealmaker” blew his opportunity to ever buy into the exclusive NFL club that is seemingly a license to print money. Now he is on to bigger and better things, but I think Trump’s current political rhetoric would not make him welcome with any major sports league. As a huge horse racing fan I am thrilled that the billionaire has never been involved in any capacity in the “Sport of Kings”. That probably is a smart business decision, but what is the point of being a billionaire and not having a Kentucky Derby horse every year?

Donald Trump and Eminent Domain Abuse

The conservative magazine National Review published an article titled “Conservatives against Trump” in their most recent issue (that I am realizing that I am ripping off a bit). They filled two football teams of conservatives, 22 who tried to convince fellow conservatives that Trump is not one of them. They seemingly didn’t come close to succeeding as Trump support has only been stronger after the issue was released. One of the issues repeatedly mentioned is Trump’s support of eminent domain (resumption or compulsory acquisition for you Aussies). They either mentioned the issue by name or talked about previous bullying tactics while developing properties. I thought the government seizing land without adequate compensation was a major conservative ideal. The Trump supporters are seemingly blind to his support for eminent domain abuse. Can you imagine how much land the government would have to seize to build his “Great Big Beautiful Wall?” To illustrate Trump’s ideology it is easiest to just watch this short segment from HBO’s Real Sports.

Unfortunately I am not able to find the full clip, but there is a full-length documentary titled “You’ve Been Trumped” by Anthony Baxter about the saga of Michael Forbes and other residents of Aberdeenshire, Scotland. Forbes was a major holdout not willing to sell his land to Trump so he could develop a golf course. As you would expect it illustrates Trump’s bullying tactics like cutting off water and electricity and surrounding a man’s home with a wall of bulldozed earth. Could you imagine if he had the power of the Presidency how much land Trump would have the government seize for his projects?

Donald Trump is the Brain Damage Candidate

Donald Trump now claims he is happy he isn’t an owner in the NFL and says he barely watches the sport any more. He uses the NFL player safety rules as a metaphor for how America has become soft. This is actually quite sickening to listen to considering what we know now about the dangers head injuries.

I am certain that the play he is referring to was this clearly illegal hit to the head of Pittsburgh Steelers superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown in the AFC Wild Card round by Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Brown suffered a concussion and was unable to play the following week against the Denver Broncos. Trump also gets the details of the game completely backwards. Football fans listen clearly at the 1:14 mark of Trump’s speech. Somehow the penalty on the “great tackle” didn’t allow the Steelers to kick the field goal?

As you can see this hit never would have been considered a “great tackle” as Trump put it. It wouldn’t have been penalized back in the “good old days” of football, but we have learned the damage these types of hits have caused. This hit along with other actions in that game and a history of dirty play earned Vontaze Burfict a 3-game suspension by the NFL. I guess Donald Trump hasn’t read or watched “League of Denial” or the fictionalized version “Concussion”. This is an example of Trump not caring about the facts, science and most importantly the health of professional football players. He has been dubbed the “brain damage candidate”, which certainly explains Sarah Palin being part of Team Trump.

I’m sorry but I couldn’t resist. She really is too good to be true for the comics out there in America. I am not a fan of Stephen Colbert but calling former Alaska Governor Palin “The Original Material Girl” is dead on. This is another reason to be scared of Donald Trump, the potential for Sarah Palin to be part of the federal government. Trump has had a lot of athletes endorse him. Another clown in former NBA star Dennis Rodman is pro-Trump. A real team player (tongue firmly in cheek) former NFL wide receiver Terrell Owens has backed “The Donald”. Trump also has the support of a convicted rapist in former heavyweight boxing champ Mike Tyson and a confirmed racist in former MLB relief pitcher John Rocker. Rocker’s hate speech made him infamous and hated especially here in New York with us Mets fans as a member of the Atlanta Braves. Here are a couple of Rocker’s quotes: “The biggest thing I don’t like about New York are the foreigners. I’m not a very big fan of foreigners… How the hell did they get in this country?” and riding the 7 train in NYC is “like you’re [riding through] Beirut next to some kid with purple hair next to some queer with AIDS right next to some dude who just got out of jail for the fourth time right next to some 20-year-old mom with four kids.” John Rocker is the quintessential “Trumpeter”, I would consider him “right wingin” and “bitter clingin’”.

Donald Trump always says he has great judgment. I will have to respectfully disagree that 3 marriages, 4 bankruptcies and leaving the house with that ridiculous second base to home plate orange-dyed comb over is good judgment. On a side note the three top Republican candidates all rock the comb over. Trump goes from second to home while both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz go the more traditional first base to third. Anyways Donald Trump also has been quoted that he has a great memory. I would have to question if Trump has suffered some brain damage. After the tragic terrorist attack in San Bernardino, California President Barack Obama said in a speech that “Muslim-Americans are our sports heroes”. To which Donald Trump tweeted:

trumptweetmusath

I listened to President Obama’s speech live and I hiccupped at first, but within a second or two figured out exactly who the POTUS was talking about. How Donald Trump could write this whole tweet out without scanning his brain of the great athletes he has met that could have been Muslim. Meeting “the Don” as he likes to call himself should equate to greatness and how could he forget about these two guys.

trump ali

Alonzo Mourning Charities

I could see Mr. Trump not knowing that Shaquille O’Neal is Muslim, but not to immediately think of Muhammad Ali? Then once your mind goes there how do you not think of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar? Ali is “The Greatest” and was ranked number 2 in the ESPN SportsCentury: Top 100 American Athletes of the 20th Century. Kareem, the NBA’s all-time leading scorer was 26th on that list. If that list were to include the last 15 years certainly both Shaq and former NBA Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon would be added to it. Considering that Muslim-Americans make up only about 1% of the US population they are easily over represented on this list. Especially when the list contains just 97 humans that can even have a religion. Three thoroughbreds: Secretariat (35th), Man O’ War (84th) and Citation (97th) made the list. If we did add the last 15 years we certainly would lose Man O’ War and Citation, but we would pick up American Pharoah who would probably be around 75th with Secretariat dropping to about 50th. Sorry another aside from a horse racing enthusiast which directly leads into my next sports fan argument against Donald Trump.

Donald Trump and the Proposed Muslim Ban

Donald Trump has called for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on.” When pressed on this Trump has said it would apply to “everyone” including “tourists” and didn’t list any exceptions. The fact that he won’t back down is just another example of hateful rhetoric that would be impossible to enforce. How would this work? Indonesia is a country of 260 million people of which 95% are of Muslim faith. You would ban virtually the entire country from traveling to the United States. Would they not reciprocate and ban travelers from the US to travel to Indonesia? I have a small investment in some real estate in Bali and I would like to travel there some time. This plan would shut down much of the world to American citizens and I am not going to get bogged down in the ripple effects as I want to get back to sports. There are a total of 1.6 billion Muslims in the world the vast majority living in peace with no gripe with America. Muslims are more likely to be victims of fundamental Islamic terrorism and are our allies in fighting Islamic extremism in the Middle East. Only one of the main stage GOP Party candidates has stood up to Trump and that was Jeb Bush. He has made the argument this policy makes it harder to fight ISIS and the former Florida Governor is 100% right. Sadly it has not helped him in the polls, I guess having a brain AND a heart is a negative for right-wing voters. In one of the undercard Republican debates the best argument against the Muslim ban was made by South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham.

The worst part is that Trump doesn’t believe in this policy and knows he can’t enforce it. As Jeb Bush said “it is another example of how he (Trump) is not a serious candidate”. It is all part of riling up his crowd and saying whatever they want to hear. So odd that a man who “owns” all these golf courses and hotels he would want to ban all those tourists and all that cash from visiting America.

What does this have to do with horse racing? I can’t think of sport where foreign Muslims play a bigger role in the economics and history of the industry. I do again remind you horses can’t have a religion. If they did the foundation bloodstock of the Thoroughbred horse breed would be Muslim. Thoroughbreds were developed in England after importing three foundation stallions from the greater Middle East. The Byerley Turk (1684) was stolen from the Ottoman Empire. The Darley Arabian (1704) purchased from Aleppo, Syria. The Godolphin Arabian (1724) was born in Yemen then traveled from Syria to Tunisia then on to France before finally ending up in England. To be honest if I saw a military aged male who followed that same travel path, Donald Trump and I would be in agreement. Currently some of the biggest players in Thoroughbred racing around the world are Muslim. Darley Stud, Darley Stables, Godolphin Stables are all owned by Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai. Venerable US based auction house Fasig-Tipton is owned by a Dubai based company. There are significant owners in another one of the Emirates, Abu Dhabi and neighboring Qatar. One of my favorite sporting events I have traveled to is the the Dubai World Cup. I would hate to think I could travel back to one, but much more importantly if there was a reciprocal ban then an American owner, trainer and jockey couldn’t travel with their horse to Dubai to compete for a share of the biggest purse in the sport. The big race has a $10 million purse and the total for the night is $27 million. It doesn’t seem very American if our policies wouldn’t allow a citizen to compete for that kind of prize money. It also wouldn’t be American either if Godolphin couldn’t bring their trainer if they have a horse racing in the USA. Here is a shot I took as part of the press corps as the sun rose over Meydan Racecouse in Dubai.

dubai

I said I didn’t want to mention the ripple effects of the Muslim ban, but I actually am as sports are a big part of that ripple. Toronto Maple Leafs center and natural born Canadian citizen Nazem Kadri, is a practicing Muslim and would be subject to this ban. You know how loyal hockey players are and if one is banned from a country the other 19 aren’t going to be going either. Edmonton Oilers right winger and 2012 number one overall NHL draft pick Nail Yakupov is a Russian citizen and also of Muslim faith. He is from Tatarstan which is a peaceful Russian Republic of 3.8 million people of which 55% practice Sunni Islam. The most beautiful woman (inside and out) I know is a Muslim from Tatarstan, another reason why Trump’s ban is terrible idea. Yesterday it was announced that Mexican Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will fight Amir Khan for the WBC Middleweight title on Derby Day May 7th. Khan is a UK citizen and of Muslim faith with his family roots from Pakistan. This bout will be a huge money making event on Cinco de Mayo weekend for Las Vegas. Think about it Donald, a Mexican and Muslim are going to beat the crap out of each other and it will be a huge boon for the Vegas economy why would you want to ban that? The sport that would be affected most in our global standing is in soccer. Many of the world’s soccer stars are of Islamic faith. Mesut Ozil of Germany, Franck Ribery of France, Edin Dzeko of Bosnia, Yaya Toure of Ivory Coast and Marouane Fellaini of Belgium are just a small diverse handful of Muslim soccer stars. City Football Group own Manchester City Football Club, New York City F.C. and Melbourne City F.C. Their primary owner is Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi. These three clubs on three different continents share a color scheme and I personally think is one of the cooler ownership groups in the world. As a New Yorker who hates Red Bull and correspond in Melbourne, Australia for 7 years it is only fitting I support the three teams in this group.

nycmel

Donald Trump and the WWE

I have been trashing Donald Trump, but I would be remiss not mention he has been inducted into a national “sports” hall of fame. I put the word sports in quotes as Trump was inducted into the World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE formally WWF) Hall of Fame in 2013. Wow! What an honor to be inducted into the Hall of Fame of a fake sport that has a terrible history of abusing their entertainers/athletes. I have no real problem with professional wrestling, but I think it is very unbecoming of a Presidential candidate. More importantly it represents what the Trump campaign is about. Phony manufactured scripted entertainment, but unfortunately unlike in wrestling, the “fans” don’t know it is all a fraud. He really should be a WWE HOFer as there isn’t a professional wrestler who does a better job insulting their opponent or “laying the smack down” verbally. Here is the billionaire’s performance in Wrestlemania 23.

Conclusions

If I can’t support a “criminal” a “communist” and especially not the “clown” Donald Trump that doesn’t leave a lot of other viable options. I don’t think Florida Senator Marco Rubio will do a terrible job. Most importantly I think the majority of Americans can stomach him. That is a ringing endorsement! As I am posting this Rubio has 55% chance of the nomination and a 25% chance of being elected President. I like Ohio Governor John Kasich he is a moderate and has tons of experience, but is a 500-1 chance to become the next Commander-in-Chief. I also am a big fan of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg who still may enter the race at is a 75-1 chance to be elected to the hardest job in the nation.

trump golf

I will leave you with maybe Donald Trump’s worse crime in sports. He has been accused of being a golf cheat. In September the Washington Post quoted three different people that alleged Trump cheats at a game based on honor. Rock star Alice Cooper said “The worst celebrity golf cheat? I wish I could tell you that. It would be a shocker. I played golf with Donald Trump one time. That’s all I’m going to say”. Jumping on as well is actor Samuel L. Jackson who has been in a golf feud with Trump. Sorry this ended up being a lot longer than originally planned, but the evidence continued to pile up.

Feb
2016
04

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Darren

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

I start of with a little US Presidential politics. With the recent moves in the market it doesn’t look like I will have to seek political asylum in Australia. At the 3:00 minute mark I get to Super Bowl 50. At the 9:20 mark we jump to the NBA and I recap last night’s action. At the 13:25 mark I pick a couple of tonight’s NBA tilts. We finish the podcast going over the playoff standings in both the Eastern and Western Conferences.

Feb
2016
03

Super Bowl 50 Update

Carolina Panthers -5.5 versus the Denver Broncos (O/U 44.5/45)

There have been the slightest of changes in the point spread and a small move in the total. I was very wrong on the over/under as it looked like it was going to go up after opening 45. Many books had it at 45.5 and some even 46. Initially 3/4ers of the wagers were on the over and through all of last week it was 73%. With the weather forecast near perfection I was expecting the total to continue to climb. It has gone the other way with most books moving it 44.5. The bet percentage has leveled off to 2/3eds of the bets on the over, but the injury news is what has forced the O/U down. Both of the Broncos starting safeties were hurt and couldn’t finish the AFC Championship Game. That allowed the New England Patriots to be able to attack down the field with the best tight end in the NFL Rob Gronkowski. Both T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart have been upgraded to probable for the Super Bowl. This is huge for the Denver defense as the Panthers biggest weapon in the passing game is their tight end Greg Olsen. Carolina had three defensive players questionable one from each of the 3 position groups. Defensive end Jared Allen, linebacker Thomas Davis and safety Roman Harper have all been upgraded to probable for Sunday. This group provides the Panthers with a ton of experience with each player having played 10+ NFL seasons. There are only 5 players on Carolina to have played in a Super Bowl with just backup tight end Ed Dickson and Harper earning a ring. I was not expecting all 5 of these defense players to play and that was where my mistake was in suggesting that the over would continue to go higher.

At last check books were split between 5.5 and 6 points, now the line is a clear consensus 5.5. The bet percentage is starting to level off further at this level. 72% of spread bets and 60% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Panthers. The moneyline continues to drift in as well with 55% of the outright win bets on the underdog Broncos now. Reports are that there is still is a lot more money bet on Carolina straight with the spread, but the books are awaiting late Broncos money. The “traders” that took the Panthers -4 early and want to get out of some or all, of their bet are still on the sidelines. As are the once a year bettors that are mostly going to go with their heart and the sentiment. I would think we may already have seen the high point in the line at 6 points.

I still can’t imagine switching off of Denver, but it is a really hard bet. The experience factor is really the only thing they have going for them. The Broncos have 16 players that have played in a Super Bowl and this will be the 4th start for quarterback Peyton Manning (1-2). Carolina does have a lot of veterans that even though they are playing in their first Super Bowl aren’t going to get too distracted and should be able to keep the young players in line. I was hoping it would be a Panthers player making news for an off the field incident, but it was a member of the Broncos who got himself sent home. Rookie practice squad safety Ryan Murphy was detained by police in a prostitution sting. It doesn’t even sound like he did anything wrong, but when you aren’t even going to play in the game they aren’t going to keep you around. This isn’t a big deal, but there is nothing negative coming out of the Carolina camp at all. I just have a feeling that the Panthers and QB Cam Newton are going to have an off game. I think he may try to do too much and make some mistakes down the field. The Panthers really did have an easy schedule this season as the rest of their division was substandard (especially on defense) and they played the two worst divisions in the NFL. Carolina played 8 games against the AFC South and NFC East lighting up papier-mache defenses in those two garbage divisions (51-77 combined record). They did beat the Seattle Seahawks twice and lit up the Arizona Cardinals defense, but the Broncos are the best defense they have faced all season and I think that cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. are the stars.

That leads me into the world of props. On the first scan there is nothing that really jumps out at me. I love the “contest” props like player to score first touchdown or the MVP, but the odds are usually terrible. I looked at the odds on the two former Kansas Jayhawks cornerbacks for MVP. Talib was 50-1 initially and now down to 45-1 with Harris Jr. 100-1. That is due to the fact that Talib has a much higher interception and touchdown rate. Chris Harris Jr. doesn’t put up stats, but he is key player and his absence was one of the many reasons I like the Seahawks to win Super Bowl 48. Harris Jr. tore his ACL in the AFC Divisional round and was absent from the Broncos defense along with top pass rusher Von Miller. It is just a gut feeling, but I think Chris Harris Jr. really gets noticed as a star after Super Bowl 50. Expecting the Broncos defense to have a big game I saw Cam Newton over 1.5 interceptions at 2-1, that is one I would suggest. Especially with this total dipping I would look to take a lot of unders in individual player’s stats. I would expect Peyton Manning to try to slow the game down and use the entire play clock. I think the Panthers will rely on the running game which means the clock will be running for most of their possessions. I will have specific suggestions later in the week, but in general props are bad bets for the gamblers and very profitable for the sportsbooks. I know they are hard bets to make, but I will reiterate I would take the unders in most of the players on both team’s individuals stats expecting a very low number of total plays.

Feb
2016
02

Spot on the BS Show with Bob Sansevere

bsshow

I report on the big “win” for Marco Rubio in Iowa and how the results from the caucuses affected the Betfair market on the US Presidential election. Then I give a quick update on the Super Bowl 50 wagering market.

Brought to you by Liquid Ice Energy Drink!

Starts at the 18:10 mark! At the 27:30 I discuss Super Bowl 50!

CLICK HERE to listen

liquidice

Feb
2016
01

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Benny

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

To paraphrase Benny Jones we start by giving the Pro Bowl about 4 and half minutes of too much time, but truthfully it was probably good to spread the word around the world that this game has become useless. We move on to talk about a game of tackle American football, Super Bowl 50. Of course an obligatory Jarryd Hayne discussion and his future with San Francisco 49ers. Then on to the NBA and the Golden State Warriors big win here in NYC over the Knicks. At the 43 minute mark I pick a bunch of tonight’s NBA games.

Starts at the 25:40 mark!

Jan
2016
30

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Darren

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

I was shocked to wake up to the news that Serena Williams had lost in the Australian Open Women’s Final. I discuss Super Bowl 50 from soup to nuts, actually quite literally. I recap the action in the NBA last night and pick a couple of tonight’s games.

Jan
2016
29

Super Bowl 50 Weather Update

Carolina Panthers -5.5/6 versus the Denver Broncos (O/U 45/46)

I should have documented the weather reports I saw when looking out at 14-days for the city of Santa Clara, California. There was rain for most of next week and high winds and possible rain on both Sunday February 7th and Monday February 8th in the forecast. I have mentioned potential wind and to a lesser extent rain in both posts about the Super Bowl and how I thought that it was holding down the total at 45 points. Now that we are 9 days out we have more reliable forecasts and it looks like it will be beautiful weather for the entire week and near perfection on Super Bowl Sunday. The most successful sports league in American history will almost certainly get blessed with sunshine, warm temperatures and light winds for the 50th anniversary of this game. I think the over/under will pop up now that weather looks good. Already I am seeing offshore sportsbooks like CRIS moving the total to 45.5 and other more “square” sites up to 46. 73% of the bets are on the over and I would assume that the once a year bettors are over players and they will hit the market late. If you can get over 45 now I would take it as a trade. If you want to take the over I would jump on now as I only think it is going up. I think by kickoff 46.5/47 is possible. There has been no change in the line or moneyline since my update yesterday, but I do feel much more comfortable fading the public on Carolina considering that the weather should be near perfection. The fade isn’t as big as the bet percentage isn’t as lopsided now that the line is out at 5.5/6 with 76% of spread and 72% of parlay and teaser bets on the Panthers. Peyton Manning will need to have perfect conditions with the condition his condition is in.

Jan
2016
28

Super Bowl 50 Update

Carolina Panthers -5.5/6 versus the Denver Broncos (O/U 45)

The overwhelming early action on the Panthers have forced the books to move this spread out to 5.5 with many already making it 6. I thought it would take a little bit longer for it move out and now I think it is possible that it could even get to 6.5. I think at that price you could get a lot of Denver action, especially looking to buy that half-point and get the Broncos at +7 (-120). With a lot of money already backing Carolina at -4 and -4.5, the books have a huge risk of getting middled. Even with the line pushing out, 79% of spread and 75% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Panthers. ESPN.com had a report from Vegas titled “One-sided action on Panthers helps move Super Bowl 50 line” that included this quote “I can’t remember a more one-sided betting Super Bowl,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US. As I wrote on Monday this was obvious late into the NFC Championship game and immediately backed up on Monday with the early bet percentage stats. I still am very lukewarmly backing the Broncos, but unlike the AFC Championship game it doesn’t look like there is any “sharp” action on board yet. I am obviously waiting for some indication that this line won’t go out further, but that doesn’t look like that is happening anytime soon. The Denver bettors will come in late, but they may just be sentimental once a year gamblers wagering with the heart and not head. That will also be me as I am a huge Peyton Manning fan, but really fear his performance could be dreadful in the Super Bowl. I’ve been monitoring the weather and there is a high chance for wind and rain which would really hurt Manning’s chances of throwing the ball well. I think the threat of wind is holding down the total which is unchanged at 45, even with 73% of the early bets on the over and the expectation that more public over action will come in late when the novices place their bets. The moneyline has pushed out from -200 (1.50)/+1.70 (2.70) to -240 (1.42)/+200 (3.00) in the wide market in the Americas. Only 54% of these bets are on the Panthers as the public generally likes the underdog with the odds. There is nothing new on the injury front with the same key defense players on each team still listed as questionable.

Jan
2016
27

Spot on the BS Show with Bob Sansevere

bsshow

I’m back on with longtime Minnesota sports radio host Bob Sansevere, but today I’m talking the US Presidential Election market on Betfair. A small group of guests discuss many aspects of the election and I give some input on what the market thinks. I also give some local NYC knowledge on how Michael Bloomberg was as the Mayor of the Big Apple. I do have to throw in a little sports talk at the end. Enjoy!

Starts at the 20:55 mark! At the 43:45 I talk some Super Bowl and pick an NBA game (Minnesota Timberwolves +7 over the OKC Thunder)

CLICK HERE for the link to the podcast!

Jan
2016
27

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Benny

on SEN 1116 AM Melbourne, Australia

I start by discussing Super Bowl 50 and all of the fun surrounding it. Then any talk of the NBA has to start with the Golden State Warriors. Then discuss the Cleveland Cavaliers and Matthew Dellavedova. I also pick a couple of tonight’s NBA games.

Starts at the 27:45 mark!