Baseball Archives

Sep
2016
09

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

Definitely the longest I have been on radio consecutively without a break, I hope the guys were able to get all the ads in. Feel like I covered just about everything aside from Major League Baseball which is right now in its home stretch (except for the New York Mets signing Tim Tebow to a minor league contract !?!). I started with NFL and last night’s opener and few picks for Sunday. I then moved on to the Tebow signing, then Ryan Lochte’s suspension for being an idiot in Rio followed by some U.S. Open tennis. We discussed the business end of the PGA tour season as the FedEx Cup is up for grabs. Then we had a surprisingly a pretty comprehensive discussion on the 2016-17 NBA season. Then I was totally shocked when ice hockey became the topic of discussion, both the NHL and the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. Then my favorite part of any show answering some SMS questions which were expectedly about the NFL. I thoroughly enjoyed that, just wish we had more time!

Jul
2016
13

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

Start off with a quick recap of Euro 2016 then a question on UFC 200 that I was able to somewhat answer. We then talked a little golf both Olympic and the British Open. Then on the NBA Summer League and Thon Maker and Ben Simmons performances. We continue to chat NBA and the major free agency moves and Tim Duncan retiring. Finally a recap of the Major League Baseball All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby.

Starts at the 36:30 mark!

Apr
2016
06

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

Jam packed show with both a Men’s and Women’s College Basketball Championship recap. I discuss the night in the NBA and the shocking overtime loss the Golden State Warriors suffered at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves. I pick a few of tonight’s NBA games at the 31:20 mark. I give a quick update on the NHL as the regular season is nearing its end. Major League Baseball had their Opening Day(s) as the long season gets underway. Lastly I talk some golf and pick Rory McIlroy over Phil Mickelson in the Masters.

Starts at the 23 minute mark.

Mar
2016
08

MLB World Series 2016 Preview

I am very sorry this site has been devoid of sports. Well not really, if you listen to my radio spots they are chocked full of sports, but not much has been written about my bread and butter. I will go right into my wheelhouse and write about Major League Baseball and the Betfair market on the World Series winner. The market isn’t very liquid with at most $100 up and most markets around $30-$50. Not even $10,000 total has been matched so far in this market. The markets aren’t very tight, but I feel they are providing a fair and accurate prediction. There is one clear cut favorite which is an incredibly ironic choice. Then there is such parity and reason for optimism in baseball cities across America.

Team Best Odds % to win WS
Chicago Cubs 8 10.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers 12.5 6.4%
Washington Nationals 13 6.3%
Houston Astros 14 6.3%
San Francisco Giants 13 6.2%
Boston Red Sox 13.5 6.2%
New York Mets 13 5.9%
Toronto Blue Jays 16 5.4%
Texas Rangers 18 5.0%
Kansas City Royals 16 4.9%
St Louis Cardinals 16.5 4.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates 20 3.8%
New York Yankees 21 3.2%
Cleveland Indians 25 3.2%
Detroit Tigers 29 3.1%
Seattle Mariners 29 2.7%
Los Angeles Angels 26 2.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks 24 2.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 49 1.5%
Field (11 unlisted teams) 9 9.5%

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It is crazy to me that the team that hasn’t won the World Series since 1908 are favorites to win this year by such a large margin.  The gap between the Cubs and the rest of the league is staggering.  They are 4.2% more likely than any other team to win it all this year.  The second choice Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t 4.2% more likely to beat 16 MLB teams or more than half the field.  Just .5% separates the Dodgers at 2nd and the New York Mets, the 7th most likely team to win the Fall Classic.  The defending World Champions and two-time American League Champion Kansas City Royals are the 10th choice overall.  They are just ahead of perennial title contenders and interstate rivals the St. Louis Cardinals.  There are eleven teams that don’t have a 1% or better chance (or odds clearly shorter than 100-1), but a bunch of those I wouldn’t completely discount.  The Miami Marlins are expected to win 80 games and have only made the playoffs twice in their 23 year existence, but both of those appearance resulted in championships.  The Baltimore Orioles, Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox all have had moments of recent success and have had some magic.  There are only a handful of teams in complete rebuilding mode that have virtually no chance at October glory.

It is hard to find a lot of value in this market, but my bias has me looking at the defending National League Champion New York Mets.  The Mets swept the Cubs 4 games to none in last year’s NLCS and I don’t think the Cubs improved that much more than the Mets have.  New York did lose the MVP of that series, Daniel Murphy and the Cubs added pitching, but the Mets still have a huge edge in that department.  A couple of nice omens is that the Royals won the World Series in 2015 after losing the year before and their last championship was exactly 30 years prior in 1985.  The Mets last WS championship was in 1986.

When looking at recent history, the other team that is hard not to like is also in the National League, the San Francisco Giants.

2009 Missed Playoffs
2010 World Series Champions
2011 Missed Playoffs
2012 World Series Champions
2013 Missed Playoffs
2014 World Series Champions
2015 Missed Playoffs
2016 ?????

The Giants made the requisite off-season moves as well adding two top notch starting pitchers in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to go along with ace Madison Bumgarner.

Mar
2016
02

Spot on the BS Show with Bob Sansevere

bsshow

I update the Betfair Presidential market after Super Tuesday. I also discuss the odds on the World Series winner as the Chicago Cubs are significant favorites, then half the league has odds that indicate they have a legit chance. Unfortunately the Minnesota Twins aren’t one of them, but you never know in Major League Baseball.

Brought to you by Liquid Ice Energy Drink!

Starts at the 18:45 mark!

http://thebsblog.com/2016/03/02/164-neither-rubio-nor-twins-in-contention-this-year/

Feb
2016
26

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

As we almost always do we start with Golden State Warriors and recap the rest of the action in the NBA. We discuss Ben Simmons and LSU chances at the NCAA tournament. I talk about the Brooklyn Nets hiring a Kiwi, Sean Marks, as General Manager. I pick 4 of tonight’s NBA games, all small underdogs. Then segue to the Academy Awards. Then talk a little golf and give a Tiger Woods update. A little Davis Cup tennis as it will be US versus Australia, which is news to me. I get a New York Yankees question to end the show.

Starts at the 32:50 minute mark, at the 42:20 minute mark I pick a few of tonight’s NBA game.

Feb
2016
17

Spot on the BS Show with Bob Sansevere

bsshow

I update the Betfair Presidential market after Super Tuesday. I also discuss the odds on the World Series winner as the Chicago Cubs are significant favorites, then half the league has odds that indicate they have a legit chance. Unfortunately the Minnesota Twins aren’t one of them, but you never know in Major League Baseball.

Brought to you by Liquid Ice Energy Drink!

Starts at the 18:45 mark!

For podcast CLICK HERE

Nov
2015
03

Recap of the World Series Games 4 and 5

It has been a little over 36 hours since the Kansas City Royals won game 5 and with it the World Series 4 games to 1 and it is starting to get a little easier getting over it as a New York Mets fan. It is always disappointing and depressing when your team is eliminated, but especially when they are so close to a championship. What is even worse is when they lead in every game and lose three of those leads in the 8th or 9th inning. Where I was most wrong in picking the Mets was assuming that closer Jeurys Familia would be automatic. He blew 3 saves in the series after being nearly perfect in the postseason and not having blown a save since July. He didn’t pitch that poorly, but made a couple of mistakes and got some terrible fielding behind him that was the main contributor to his failures. Even with the errors both in the field and on the bases by the Mets, the Royals won this series. They refuse to lose and are never out of a game. To think KC trailed 6-2 in the 8th inning down 2 games to 1 in the ALDS against the Houston Astros. Congratulations to the Royals! Last year I took pleasure in their shocking run to the World Series as it gave me hope that the Mets could compete for a championship with a core of young players. After being runner ups last year, Kansas City ended a 30-year drought having last won the World Series in 1985, the Mets will try to do the repeat the exact same feat having last won in 1986.

Kansas City Royals 5 – Mets 3 (Game 4) The Mets got the scoring started in the bottom of the 3rd with a home run from rookie Michael Conforto and a sacrifice fly by Curtis Granderson off of starter Chris Young. Young the game 1 winner in relief only pitched 4 innings giving up those 2 runs. KC got a run back in the top of 5th, but the Mets get it a 2-run late with another Conforto solo shot. I think that Terry Collins probably stuck with starter Steven Matz an inning too long as he gave up a double and run scoring single without retiring a batter in the top of the 6th. Matz’s final line was exactly what I had predicted 5 innings, 2 runs allowed. The Mets bullpen got out of the 6th inning jam and pitched a perfect 7th to take that 3-2 lead into the 8th. Reliever Tyler Clippard retired the first batter, but walked two straight batters and was replaced by closer Jeurys Familia. Familia got Eric Hosmer to hit a slow ground ball to second that went under Daniel Murphy’s glove for an error. Familia didn’t handle the adversity well giving up back-to-back singles though only the second a 2-RBI hit by eventual series MVP Salvador Perez was hard hit. The Perez hit gave the Royals a 5-3 lead and they responded by bringing in closer Wade Davis for a 6-out safe. He pitched a 1-2-3 bottom of the 8th, but gave up back-to-back singles in the ninth that brought Mets power hitting first baseman Lucas Duda up as the potential winning run. Duda barely made contact sending a soft flare to the 3rd baseman, who caught Yoenis Cespedes wandering off of first base to complete the double play and end the game. It was an extremely boneheaded play by the free agent to be Cespedes who had a terrible World Series and postseason in general. It was also a very tough loss if you had the under as the starting pitchers hung in well, but the fateful 8th inning sunk the Mets and under players.

Kansas City Royals 7 – New York Mets 2 (12 innings) (Game 5) If game 4 wasn’t enough of a roller coaster of emotions for the home fans, game 5 trumped it. Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey had the crowd in a frenzy pitching as big a game as any Mets pitcher has ever thrown. With their backs against the wall Harvey pitched 8 scoreless innings allowing just 4 hits and a walk while striking out 9 Royals (I didn’t think that was possible). The Mets got the scoring started again with a leadoff homer by Curtis Granderson. Grandy was huge for the Mets in this series and in the postseason as he has proven to be a fantastic free agent signing. The Mets added a run in the 6th http://thechiefsports.com/2015/11/recap-of-the-world-series-games-4-and-5/to give the Mets a 2-0 lead going into the 9th inning. Harvey had thrown just over 100 pitches and just retired the Royals 1-2-3 in the 8th when manager Terry Collins had to decide to leave Harvey in or go his closer Jeurys Familia. His head was saying to go with Familia, but his heart and the 45,000 fans chanting “we want Harvey” is what he based his decision. The Dark Knight of Gotham came sprinting out of the dugout to an explosion of cheers. I was one of those fans who thought that Collins should stick with Harvey. Familia had pitched the last two nights and had already blown two saves in the series. Where Collins was wrong was not pulling Harvey after he allowed a leadoff walk to Lorenzo Cain. Harvey has great control and leadoff walk in that spot cannot happen and indicated big trouble.. Allowing a home run would have been better. Eric Hosmer was up next, he only gets hits with runners on base another reason a home run would have better than walk, and he hit a double over the left fielders head to score the Royals first run and put the game tying run on 2nd base. That is when Familia came in. He got a ground ball out to first base that moved Hosmer to 3rd base with 1 out. We got another weak ground ball hit to the shortstop position, but it was cut off by 3rd baseman David Wright he looked Hosmer then threw to first, that’s when Hosmer bolted for home. He would have been easily out, but first baseman Lucas Duda airmailed the throw and the game was tied. It would have been an awesome way to end a World Series game on a double play with the last out at home, but alas we were headed to extra innings. It was Familia’s third blown save of the series, but he deserved better as he pitched 2 perfect innings with a pair of strikeouts, he just didn’t strike out the right batters. The Mets awful night at the plate continued as they didn’t threaten in the 9th, 10th or 11th. In games 4 and 5, Mets players not named Michael Conforto went 6 for 58 (.103), Conforto was 4-8 with a pair of home runs. In the top of the 12th the Royals scored 5 runs all charged to Addison Reed with again a Daniel Murphy error breaking things open. This series was eerily similar to the loss the Mets suffered in the 2000 World Series to the New York Yankees. That was a 4 games to 1 series with the only Mets win in game 5. Just as in 2000 the Mets lost game 1 in extra innings after taking a 1-run lead into the 9th. Game 5 was also very similar in that it was Bobby Valentine criticized for staying with his starter, Al Leiter into the 9th inning (Leiter threw 142 pitches that night). The game winning hit by the Yankees was a pinch hit by light hitting backup middle infielder Louis Sojo. The Royals game winner was on a pinch hit by light hitting backup middle infielder Christian Colon. This game was a killer if you had the under. It was 2-0 going into the 9th and 2-2 threw 11 innings. The Royals 5-run 12th put the game over the 7 run total. Sickening for under players who got great games out of the two starters and strong bullpen performances aside from Reed.

Nov
2015
01

Pick for World Series Game 5

New York Mets -145 (1.69) over the Kansas City Royals (game 5)

Nov
2015
01

Pick for World Series Game 5

I am usually good at managing conflicting sporting events and Breeders’ Cup weekend has always been a juggle. Having to write NFL picks and racing picks while going to the track was difficult especially with couple of full days of drinking. This World Series/Breeders’ Cup combo has kicked my butt. I have decided write a more this year which certainly as added to the exhaustion. What has really got me is going to the World Series games. That takes twice more out of you than a full day at the track. Either way, I just have pick for game 5 now. I will recap both games 4 and 5 and the Breeders’ Cup sometime tomorrow (along with a crazy day in the NFL already).

New York Mets -145 (1.69) over the Kansas City Royals (game 5) If anything this market favors the Mets as the odds opened up -140 (1.71)/+125 (2.25) and how is -145 (1.69)/+130 (2.35) with moneyline bets split. 77% of runline and 60% of parlay bets are on the Mets. This is a rematch of the game 1 starters. These two pitchers pitch almost identical games: 6 innings, 3 earned runs, 7 base runners, 1 home run allowed with Volquez having a 2-1 strikeout edge (Harvey threw 80 pitches, Volquez 78). Harvey will have to out pitch his counterpart as the Royals advantages in everything other than starting pitching played itself out last night. Volquez is mourning the loss of his father who passed away just hours before he pitched game in game 1. He traveled to the Dominican Republic for the funeral. I don’t think this will be a factor, if anything it may inspire him to pitch a great game. Volquez does have an 0-3 record with a 5.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in CitiField. I do expect Harvey to have a great effort tonight with the Mets season on the line and I do think the Mets will score enough. As for over/under that has crushed me the past couple of nights again the public is on the over, this time 83%. Every game in this series has gone over most of time needing runs very late in these games. Again there is divergence as this total opened 7 and is now 7 -120 (1.83) on the under, +100 (2.00) on the over. This is probably the best pitching matchup of the bunch, though it will be a little warmer tonight with winds again blowing in from left. I think third time will be the charm in this string of significant divergence between bet percentages and movement in the total. I think sharps have gotten crushed the past couple of nights and get it back tonight.