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Today I discuss Tiger Woods‘ falling following at the British Open, and how the death of legend George Steinbrenner has affected the Yankees‘ game. Plus, the Miami Heat is on fire with the sign-and-trade of Lebron James to fill their hot line-up, and, finally, I glance at the dwindling hopes of the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight.
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A recap of the 2 NFL games played Saturday. The New York Jets defeated the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys eliminated the Philadelphia Eagles. In action today the Baltimore Ravens have jumped on top of the New England Patriots and later this afternoon the Arizona Cardinals host the Green Bay Packers. I would take the Cardinals in this one. In college football Alabama defeated Texas for the National Championship. Washington Wizards Gilbert Arenas suspended indefinitely for brandishing fire arms in the locker room. A discussion of other NBA games in action today and about the Detroit Pistons struggles. Also an update on today’s NHL slate. In boxing the Floyd Mayweather – Manny Pacquiao fight is officially off.
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A discussion about the biggest sports rivalries in the US is brought on by the Thrilla in Manila documentary and the rivalry between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier. A blast from my past as we talk about Julius Hodge who is playing basketball for the Melbourne Tigers. He is playing in Australia as he tries to get a chance to return to the NBA. A discussion on the NBA action this week as the Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing good ball, Andrew Bogut is injured, the Nets are winless, the Hornets have won a couple and the Knicks pass on Allen Iverson. The NASCAR season comes to an end today, Marcos Ambrose should be very happy with the year his team had. The NFL Week 11 is underway with the New York Giants facing a near must win against the Atlanta Falcons. The pressure is on Eli Manning and his receiving corp to produce. The 2-7 Oakland Raiders take on the 7-2 Cincinnati Bengals, I give the Raiders a shot and definitely would take the 9 points. The Minnesota Vikings are threatening to leave town, they can’t leave winter is depressing enough in Minnesota.
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Tiger Woods wins the Australian Masters with huge crowds in Melbourne there to see the great one. Milwaukee Bucks rookie point guard Brandon Jennings scores 55 in a game. In other NBA news, Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets beat the LA Lakers and Lebron James is planning on a jersey number change. The NFL is in full swing with the big game on the board the New England Patriots at the Indianapolis Colts later tonight. A shout out to Manny Pacquiao on his incredible performance in defeating Miquel Cotto.
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Wow, another full slate of action across many sports. I am going to pick 3 college football games and the championship fight tonight.
USC Trojans (H) vs Stanford Cardinal (USC by 10.5, opened 11.5)
I am going to take USC -10.5 at home in the LA Coliseum. I really like USC quarterback Matt Barkley and expect him to have a big game today. When these teams played two years ago at USC, Stanford won as a 40-point underdog. I’m sure USC head coach Pete Carroll has used that this week for motivation.
California Golden Bears (H) vs Arizona Wildcats (Cal by 3, opened Arizona by 1)
I am going with the home team in the Pac-10 again and Cal -3. I am going with the line move and I don’t think the public is on this one. Nearly 2/3 of those picking on ESPN picked Arizona to win outright. Arizona is ranked 17th in the country, Cal is unranked. California will be without their dynamic running back Jahvid Best who is out with a concussion.
Florida Gators (H) vs South Carolina Gamecocks (Total 43.5, opened 42)
I am going to stay with the Under 43.5 in the 3:30 SEC game on CBS. Tennessee and Mississippi play at noon on CBS, but I am not taking that under. Nor am I taking over in the Grand Salami in the NHL, scoring has been down of late.
Manny Pacquiao vs Miguel Cotto (Pacquiao -300, opened -250)
Manny Pacquiao is attempting to become the first fighter to win 7 world titles in 7 different weight classes. I still can’t believe what he has done so far and have doubted him as he has fought bigger fighters. Miguel Cotto is ranked 7th in world pound for pound and is naturally much bigger. I think Cotto +250 has a real shot tonight and I am going to take the odds.
USC Trojans -10.5 (3 out of 5)
California -3 (4 out of 5)
Under Florida/South Carolina (3 out of 5)
Miguel Cotto +250 (1 out of 5)
A live update on the 1 o’clock NFL games that are in the 3rd quarter. At 4 o’clock, I like the Cincinnati Bengals over the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. I like the Seattle Seahawks at home over the Chicago Bears. I am taking the Buffalo Bills over the New Orelans Saints, the San Diego Chargers over the Miami Dolphins convincingly, and in a game that has us all very excited, the Denver Broncos to beat the Oakland Raiders. In the Sunday night game I am tipping the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Indianapolis Colts. I am looking for more pomp and circumstance as Monday night’s game is in the new Cowboys Stadium. Also a question about Shaun Hill and an injury update on Frank Gore. Major League Baseball enters its final week with not a whole lot of drama in the playoff races. Tiger Woods goes for $11+ million at the Tour Championship as Phil Mickelson is right near the top of the leaderboard. A recap of the Vitali Klitschko/Chris Arreola heavyweight bout.
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I am incorporating some of my fans ideas this week in my picks.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Virginia Tech Hokies (H) (Miami favored by 3, opened Va Tech by 1)
I am going with Virginia Tech +3. The line move (hate going against it, even though I think it is mostly public driven) is tempering my excitement on this one. Check out the question from Kevin in NYC for more detail on this game.
Stanford Cardinal (H) vs Washington Huskies (Stanford by 9, opened 6.5)
I think this is a pretty good one as I like Stanford -9. Washington is coming off of an emotional win against USC to go on the road to play Stanford. I like the line move, I don’t think it is driven by public action, even though a lot of people probably are predicting a let down.
USC Trojans (H) vs Washington St Cougars (USC by 45.5, total 55.5, opened 43 and 53)
I am going with both Washington State +45.5 and Over 55.5.
If Washington State can score 5 points you cannot lose both bets and would only lose the vig. USC will probably crush them, but there is a very small window in which you would lose both bets. USC gets quarterback Matt Barkley back from injury which will help them, but he is still a freshman and can make mistakes. Washington State has been able to score some points this year and USC doesn’t seem to have that dominant defense after losing many starters to the NFL.
Vitali Klitschko vs Cristobal Arreola (Klitschko favored by 6-1)
I would take a shot on the underdog Chris Arreola at 6-1, if you could better odds on a KO victory, I would do that as it would be almost impossible for Arreola to win a decision. Check out the question from Cossy the Aussie for more info on this fight.
Virginia Tech +3 (3 out of 5)
Stanford -9 (4 out of 5)
Washington State +45.5 and over 55.5 (2 out of 5)
Cristobal Arreola 6-1 (.5 out of 5)
Chief,
I want to direct your astute attention towards boxing.
Cristobal Arreola vs. Vitali Klitschko Saturday night
The undefeated Mexican heavyweight, thats right Mexican HEAVY weight is 6/1 to win and more importantly is massive odds of near 50/1 to win by knock out in the early rounds say 3 to 6, the kid won’t go the distance but these odds for an undefeated boxer to win via knock out whom can also knock out his opponents with either hand against the overrated Klitschko must be a price to dabble with. Anyway I for one have been waiting a year for this bout, what does your boxing analyst say on this match up Chief?
giddy up
Cossy Khancoban, New South Wales, Australia
Well you never have to convince me to take a shot on an underdog especially in a heavyweight fight. I do see some very juicy odds for a Arreola KO in those early rounds. I don’t usually like to be involved in round betting, but would prefer to bet a fighter just to win by KO in any round. If you were to bet KO in rounds 3-6 and get 50-1 on each round then you have him 12.5-1 to win by KO in those rounds. It would really hurt if he were to KO Vitali late in the 2nd round or early in the 7th. I do see odds greater than 50-1 for some of those rounds and you may be able to create a “portfolio” that pays more than that 6-1 for rounds 1 thru 8. In 27 career fights, Arreola has had only one fight go to a decision (in a 6th round fight) and has never fought past the 8th round. So you can take a chance that he gets to Klitschko before round 9. Chris Arreola has a lot going for him in this fight. He is 10 years younger (however Vitali had 4 years of inactivity during a “retirement”) and he will be fighting in front of huge home crowd at Staples Center in Los Angeles, where he was born and raised. He certainly has a punchers chance, but it will be very tough and the odds seem appropriate.
I don’t think Vitali Klitschko is overrated. He has the highest percentage of knock outs of any heavyweight champion (36 KOs in 39 fights). He has never been KNOCKED DOWN in a professional fight. There are reports of Vitali getting knocked down a couple of times sparring, once in amatuers (knocked out) and a couple of times when he was a kickboxer. So if you are right it will be quite a feat for Chris Arreola. Vitali has lost only 2 fights. Both fights he lost were due to injury, a shoulder injury against Chris Byrd after the ninth round in which Klitschko dominated the scorecards. The other was after an awful cut near his eye against Lennox Lewis that was stopped after 6 rounds with Vitali ahead on all 3 scorecards. He doesn’t have a lot of impressive names on his list of victories, but no heavyweight does as the division has been void of big name fighters for years. Certainly Cristobal Arreola doesn’t have much of a resume either as he has amassed his undefeated record.
If you believe in any conspiracy or collusion in sports, you could make a case for the powers that be (the sanctioning organizations, HBO, the promoters) making a push for Arreola. A Chris Arreola win would be great for the heavyweight division and the sport of boxing. He is American and seems to have a lot of personality, which is the exact opposite of most of the fighters at the top of the division.
Another reason to bet Arreola, Vitali Klitschko appeared in studio on ESPN SportsCenter (the LA studio). He and his brother Wladimir introduced the Top 10 plays (after some lame fake arguement between the two), which included a cricket highlight and a rugby highlight. It’s not too big of a distraction or “jinx”, but I never like to see this from fighters.
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I don’t want to be a homer, but the only 2 large line moves in tonight’s NFL preseason action both involve the New York Jets and New York Giants. In both cases the line has moved against the New York team. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6 point favorites at the Giants in the new stadium, the line opened at 1, but moved after both of the Giants’ first and second string quarterbacks Eli Manning and Jim Sorgi were ruled out of tonight’s game. Ben Roethlisberger will play for the Steelers at quarterback, it is not known if he will start, but would have to play with the first team, so the Steelers are going deeper into the game with their regulars on offense. Head coach Mike Tomlin indicated starters would go around 24 snaps. Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon are both very capable quarterbacks as well. Rhett Bomar will start at quarterback for the Giants and see almost all of the action. I think this is a lot to ask of a young player, I think the Giants will be very conservative on offense and want to get out of this game with a healthy quarterback. The Giants have a win under their belt in the preseason, even though not a home game it was at the new stadium. I think the Steelers win this game easily 23-10. The total dropped from 36 to 33.5 with the Giants quarterback news, I am not suggesting taking either the under or the over.
The Carolina Panthers are now 1 point favorites over the New York Jets after opening as 2 point home underdogs. The Jets who played 5 days ago are planning on playing starters only in the first quarter. It is expected that the Panthers will go deeper with their starters. It is interesting commenting on the Jets as viewers of HBO’s Hard Knocks get such an inside look at the team and coaching staff. I didn’t seem that the Jets were worried so much about losing that first preseason game, though I’m sure they want to sure up that second team defense that was called out. With the Panthers going deeper with starters and I’m sure wanting a win at home I expect the Panthers will win 19-13. The total hasn’t budged and wouldn’t go either way.
There is a third game worth taking about and that is Cleveland Browns who is now a 4 point favorite at home against the St. Louis Rams after opening 2.5 point favorites. I can’t pick up anything news related on this line move and think this is an the public showing just how badly they want to bet against the Rams. I think the conventional wisdom is that St. Louis is so lacking of talent that it doesn’t matter which units are matching up. I have to agree with public here. The Browns won their first preseason game 27-24 over the strong Green Bay Packers while the Rams lost 28-7 to the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams were completely dominated in that game at home and would expect the same to happen tonight as the Cleveland Browns will roll 25-9. As you can see I’m staying away from totals in this weeks games.
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