David Alcaro: The CHieF

he most exciting day of football of the year is upon us as we have two solid match ups that will determine who will be in Super Bowl 46. I am in Park City, Utah for the Sundance Film Festival which marks my 3rd anniversary of my first appearance on SEN 1116 which laid the roots for this website. I am back at Sundance as an executive producer of documentary, just as I was in 2008 (Trouble the Water in ‘08, The House I Live In in ‘12). That year, I had a screening in the morning and then the New England Patriots hosted the AFC Championship game early (that year against San Diego) and the New York Giants went on the road in the late game (to Green Bay) in terrible weather conditions. Sunday I have a 9am screening, Pats host the early game and the Giants go on the road in bad weather. I hope the similarities between leap years will continue as Trouble the Water won the Grand Jury Prize and went on to be nominated for an Academy Award and the New York Football Giants went on to win the Super Bowl and deny the Patriots a 19-0 season. I am not going to be making any predictions on the film festival, but will take a stab at the games. Good luck! Go Giants!

Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.

Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.

Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.

I like the home teams again today, but a lot of the public is starting to jump on after yesterdays performance by the hosts.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 over the Houston Texans Public was split on this one 50-50, but now is at 57%. Line hasn’t moved off of 7.5. Don’t feel so strongly about this one. I really like the Texans defense and running game, but I think rookie T.J. Yates will have a tough time at QB against that Ravens defense. I think the Ravens run the ball well and make a few plays in the passing game. I talked last week about Jonathan Joseph’s move from Cincinnati to Houston in the offseason. I like the addition of Vontae Leach at fullback for the Ravens from the Texans. I think Ray Rice is just a little better today than the incredible Arian Foster. Seven and a hook is a tough number, but it is one that usually scares the public away from the favorite.

Texans/Ravens Under 37 I really like this under. Total opened 38.5 and has dropped, yet 70% is on the over. I would expect a very conservative game plan by both teams. The Texans have an excellent pass defense and a rookie QB. Should make for lots of run plays and clock movement. The only thing that scares me are both defenses abilities to make plays that could result in defensive points or short fields. Weather shouldn’t be that bad, a bit windy not too cold.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 over the New York Giants Again the public is starting to support the home team, but still 60% of their action is on the Giants. Line has moved in a bit from 9 to 7.5. I think there are some short memories, the Packers have been dominant all year and they took the Giants best shot at their place and still got the victory. I think at home off the bye the Packers should play an even better game. I feel the Giants bandwagon is getting a little too full and they are getting a little overconfident.

Giants Packers Under 53 I don’t feel very strongly about this one, total has jumped from 51 to 53. Public is 79% on the over but they have been getting paid all year as the rules in the new NFL is making for lots of shootouts. It will be cold and windy today in Green Bay. First game was very high scoring, I would expect a slower paced game today. Just hard to imagine there won’t be big plays with the offensive talent on the field.

This is always a very interesting weekend of games to handicap. I am a proponent that teams are much better coming off a bye and I also value the home team more than most of the average NFL bettors. Since I have been following public bet percentages it always amazes me how the public is almost always on the road team this week. I feel that gamblers have short memories and everyone who bet the Saints, Broncos, Texans and Giants are all off wins and the squares will ride them and those who bet against them were burned badly and will likely stay away. The rest versus rust issue is also a big factor, I still think rest is better as is extra preparation time for the coaches. I think there is a lot of value in taking the home teams this weekend against the spread.

San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over the New Orleans Saints This is my best bet of the weekend as I like the 49ers to win outright. If you have read my picks before you know how often I have supported the 49ers and how I am consistently picking against the Saints (how ever I did have them last week where the public wasn’t all over them). 64% of the public is on the Saints this week as the line is approaching 3 in some places. The 49ers have that excellent defense and offensive line and I think the home field advantage will be a big factor for the 49ers.

Saints/49ers Under 47 Not too confident on this pick, public is only 57% on the over with San Fran being a very low total team. The 49ers are a field goal making team and have a shut down defense. They aren’t going to completely shut down the Saints and I do expect the Niners to win so I think they will find the end zone a few times today. I really expect the score to be right around this total. I would still take the under as I expect the 49ers to work the clock and force Drew Brees and the Saints to punt. The O/U opened 47.5 and is approaching 46.5 in some places another reason to lean toward the under.

New England Patriots -13.5 over the Denver Broncos This is a tough one to take because as I have said Tim Tebow has made the Broncos the hardest team to handicap. I amazed last week at the Broncos ability to score on the Steelers defense, I don’t expect the same today against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. They played earlier this year with the Pats winning 41-23 and holding the Broncos to only seven 2nd half points. Public is split down the middle, I always like the favorite in this case. Line has come in a half since opening 14 another reason I am not as excited about this selection.

Broncos/Patriots Under 50 Public is 65% on the over after the Broncos exploded past last week’s low total (which I actually had right because I faded my own opinion) and every one remembering that 64 point total score in Denver. I think this will be a much lower scoring game. I talked about the Pats and Belichick ability to game plan against Tebow and this week I expect Denver shut down. It will be a cold and windy night and I don’t see Tebow connecting on the deep ball. I expect the Patriots to run the ball, run the clock and tire the Broncos defense. Total opened 51 and is approaching 49.5, when people start to see the weather conditions before game time I think you could see this total drop. I would take it ASAP.

Two very difficult games to handicap today. I really don’t have much of an opinion on either on both the side or the total. This happens in the playoffs when there are so few games. I am going to give out a bunch of suggestions, but I have very little confidence in any of them.

Atlanta Falcons +3 over the New York Giants Not much to go on here public is 60/40 on the favorite Giants and the line hasn’t moved. The Giants are an inconsistent team and you never know the effort you are going to get. They have played 2 strong games in row and this playoff game could actually be a let down after beating two huge rivals in the Jets and the Cowboys. Atlanta might have the slightly better overall team, but playing outdoors on the road in the playoffs could be tough for them. The Giants have the edge at QB and could see another 4th quarter comeback. I expect a very close game and I think the 3 points could be a factor with these teams so even.

Falcons/Giants Under 47.5 I have been getting burned with NFL unders, even though this seems like one that lines up pretty well. Total opened 49 and has dropped yet 73% of the public is on the over. I would expect the Falcons to try to run the ball a lot and that should work the clock a bit. The Giants defense has played a lot better and they have been getting their pass rush going. The weather conditions should be pretty good, so there isn’t support for the under there. Also the way these games are being played no under is safe, we saw that last night the Lions/Saints game after a slow start big plays are prevalent in this era of the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 over the Denver Broncos I have been going back and forth on this game all week. The Steelers injuries are really curbing any enthusiasm for the this pick. I just don’t see how the Broncos are going to score points against the Steelers defense. Just seems to be a perfect match up for them even without safety Ryan Clark. Again no info gleamed from line moves or the public as the line hasn’t moved off 8 and public is 56% on the favorite. I do fear the Broncos pass rush and worry about the health of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger as he is going to get pressured with a makeshift offensive line in front of him.

Steelers/Broncos over 33.5 I really don’t want to pick this one and I am actually fading my own thoughts as just obvious public opinion. Total has dropped from 35.5 to 33.5, but it is the public dropping it as it just seems so obvious this will be an extremely low scoring game. I suggestion a 13-3 score earlier, but something tells me there will be some surprise scoring. I think the defenses will get TDs and good field position as the game will feature a lot of turnovers. Weather is going to be cold, but no wind or precipitation. I think that maybe Tim Tebow will connect on a long bomb for a TD as will Roethlisberger with his talented wideouts. Also if Denver is trailing in this post-season game they will try to throw suggesting points for the Steelers D, similar to the Buffalo Bills in that 40-14 loss.

The regular season is over. I will write up a recap later, but now I will talk about the two playoff games today. I will pick every playoff game with side and total with an indicator of confidence as well. Good luck!

Houston Texans -4 over the Cincinnati Bengals I really like this one a lot, a bunch of factors combining to make for a solid selection. Line opened up 3 and has moved to 4, yet the public is on the underdog Bengals (slightly). Houston has known their playoff fate as the 3rd seed for a few weeks and have taken it easy to end the season. I liked their effort last week in losing to the Titans and think they will be primed for the franchise’s first playoff game. I think Houston has the slightly better defense and the departure of Jonathan Joseph from the Bengals to the Texans will be a big factor. I think Andre Johnson makes a play or 2 down field while A.J. Green struggles. On top of the Texans having an advantage on D, they also have the better running game with superstar Arian Foster. Both teams start rookie QBs and Andy Dalton is the more experienced, having been the starter all season, and very experienced in college. but so was T.J. Yates. He seems like a capable place holder that get them through this first game, but probably not further.

Bengals/Texans Under 38 I like this one as well, not as much as the Texans because the public is split on the total. About 60% on the over is par, so usually I like to go over when it is 50-50, but not here. I think that both coaches will be very conservative with rookie QBs and will run the ball a lot and defenses will key on that. Both teams have excellent defenses and I see a lot of punting and field goals. With two young teams with limit postseason experience, I do fear some mistakes resulting in defensive or special teams TDs.

New Orleans Saints -10.5 over the Detroit Lions I don’t like this one as much, but you still have a scenario where the line has moved from 9.5 to 10.5 yet only 59% are on the favored Saints (about par). I think the Saints are virtually unstoppable offensively at home as Drew Brees is on top of his game. I think that their playoff experience, especially losing in this round last year will be a big advantage. I could see the Lions being a bit nervous in their first playoff game in a decade in the craziness of the Superdome. Having played their earlier this year and playing in a lot of domes does lessen that a bit. I think the Saints defense will make some plays and the Saints will win the turnover battle. I think the Saints advantage with the running game will be a factor as well.

Lions/Saints Under 59.5 Total opened 58 and is climbing, would think you will see 60+ by game time. 80% of the public is on the over and I think a lot of the “wise guys” are sitting this one out on the under. It is hard to believe these teams won’t put up a lot of points, but I am still going to wait until game time and go under. I think in the playoffs you could see some early nerves and maybe a slow start. I think the Saints will run the ball well and will work the clock down a bit. This is a scary one, and betting unders in these teams games have been ugly of late, but I think you could get some value taking a NFL playoff game under 60.

One note on props. The odds for players to score 1st touchdown, I like taking QBs, so if you can get good odds (20-1 or more) on T.J Yates, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford go for it. I think especially in playoff games QBs trust themselves around the goal line to get that first score.

Happy New Year! Full slate of 16 games today the final day of the regular season. Tough group of games to handicap and as I said in the video, the 4 picks I made are of equal strength and I don’t feel that strongly about any of them. The picks I made today don’t evoke too much confidence either. Tread lightly and wait for the playoffs. Good luck!

Miami Dolphins -3 over the New York Jets Line has moved from 2 to 3 yet the public is on the underdog Jets. Jets need to win this game while it is “meaningless” for the Dolphins. I am going with the bookmakers here who are expecting a big effort from Miami against their division rivals.

Arizona Cardinals -3 over the Seattle Seahawks 77% of the public is on the underdog which is extremely rare even with the point spread this low. Cardinals have played well with John Skelton under center.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers Public heavy on the Steelers, line has moved to 7 which scares me a bit. I have been on the Browns a lot and they have disappointed, I’m looking for a big effort in this rivalry game.

St Louis Rams +10.5 over the San Francisco 49ers Straight public fade here, hoping the Rams can have one good performance in front of their home crowd and in support of their head coach Steve Spagnuolo who is on the hot seat.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 over the Atlanta Falcons Why not? I’m taking one more shot with the Bucs, the line has moved from 10.5 to 10 so I’m not the only “wise” guy taking them again. Public is obviously on Atlanta.

Minnesota Vikings -2 over the Chicago Bears Line has moved from Bears favored by 1 to now Vikings favored yet public not pushing it. Going to go with the home dome team in the season finale for both teams.

Two suggestions for tonight.

Atlanta Falcons +7 over the New Orleans Saints Line is moving from 6.5 towards 7.5 as the Falcons have clinched a playoff berth and seem locked into a wild card spot, while the Saints are battling for a first round bye. I still like the Falcons though, I think they are the better overall team. New Orleans has the advantage at QB, but Matt Ryan has been hot and he is good in the dome. The Saints also have the advantage in coaching and I have experienced that dome first hand on a Monday night and it is a tough place to play. Public is on the Saints, but not overwhelmingly.

Falcons/Saints Under 53 You know I am going this way, everyone is heavy on the over. Total hasn’t moved off 53 (though probably will go up, I don’t think too much smart money will come in to offset the public barrage on the over. Saints haven’t been the best in the red zone and they are without Mark Ingram and maybe Lance Moore. I expect the Falcons to try to run the ball with their talented running backs.

Merry Christmas Eve! What a wonderful gift we have in the NFL as we enter the penultimate week of the 2011 season. Sorry no video this week, wasn’t able to get it done with all of the holiday craziness. However I will give out 8 picks for today. They are listed in order of strength. I like my top pick (Seahawks) significantly more than the others, then the next 4 (Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Bucs) are top picks while the final 3 (Bills, Jags and Cards) are lesser picks, but still official selections.

Seattle Seahawks +1 over the San Francisco 49ers Nice trifecta of scenarios here with the 49ers coming off a Monday night win combined with a line move from 3 to 1 and 73% of the public on the Niners. I love taking home dogs less than 3 points and the Seahawks at home. Clear cut best bet.

Cleveland Browns +12 over the Baltimore Ravens On my scrappy Browns again with their solid defense and low scoring games. Really should have had an outright win last week in Arizona. I like them better with Seneca Wallace under center and Patrick Willis in the lineup. Line opened 13.5 while 70% are on the Ravens.

New York Jets -3 over the New York Giants Jets favored by 3 here yet it is pretty much a neutral site game and public is 67% on the Giants. The Giants defense is in shambles and their injuries are just too much to over come. I think the Giants will have a very hard time scoring on the solid Jets corners.

Miami Dolphins +9 over the New England Patriots Another nice combination of line move from 10.5 with public 65% on the Pats. I like the Dolphins on the road. Patriots are coming off big win in Denver and I still think their defense is very weak and the loss of their best pass rusher Andre Carter is big.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 over the Carolina Panthers You wouldn’t think that most popular percentage play by the public would be the Panthers, but it is at 81%. However this is more of a bet against the disgusting Bucs who have lost 8 in a row. Line going the wrong way from 7 to 7.5, but I like that extra half here could come into play.

Buffalo Bills +3 (-120) over the Denver Broncos Line has inched in a bit moving from +3 to +3-120 while 72% are on the now popular Broncos. I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos after that hyped Pats game at home. They have done well as road dogs, but I can see them losing as road favorites.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 over the Tennessee Titans Line opened 7.5 68% of the public is on the Titans. Not much to say about this game. I just see this as a value play that I think hits at around a 55% rate. I think these are the games that make NFL betting.

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals Cards are hot with John Skelton at QB line opened 5.5, 62% is on the Bengals. I think this is another solid value play.

Two suggestions tonight on the NFL game (I do like Arizona State tonight +14 over Boise State, I would take the money line as well (+450 or 9/2 or 5.5).

Indianapolis Colts +7 over the Houston Texans Public is on the Texans pretty heavy here (79%) yet line has only moved from 6.5 to 7. Colts off a win could continue that momentum. T.J. Yates doesn’t look like he is ready to be an starting NFL quarterback just yet. Texans seem like they are going to be locked into that 3rd seed so might not play too hard.

Over 40.5 Colts/Texans Public is not on the over in this nationally televised game, but it is on NFL network which a lot of cable viewers do not get, so the public might just be willing to go under because they won’t be watching. I still like the over in Colts games their offense scores points and their defense is bad. I could see special teams and defenses scoring tonight on that fast track in the dome.