Fantasy Sports Archives

Sep
2016
10

NFL Week 1 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS
SEA Seahawks MIA Dolphins 27.4
IND Colts DET Lions 27.1
NO Saints OAK Raiders 26.8
GB Pakcers JAX Jaguars 26.4
PIT Steelers WAS Redskins 26.4
ARI Cardinals NE Patriots 26.0
KC Chiefs SD Chargers 25.6
ATL Falcons TB Buccaneers 25.3
OAK Raiders NO Saints 25.0
HOU Texans CHI Bears 24.6
DET Lions IND Colts 23.9
BAL Ravens BUF Bills 23.8
WAS Redskins PIT Steelers 23.4
DAL Cowboys NY Giants 23.0
NY Giants DAL Cowboys 23.0
TB Buccaneers ATL Falcons 22.8
LA Rams SF 49ers 22.5
PHI Eagles CLE Browns 22.1
CIN Bengals NY Jets 22.1
JAX Jaguars GB Pakcers 21.6
MIN Vikings TEN Titans 21.5
BUF Bills BAL Ravens 20.5
SF 49ers LA Rams 20.0
NY Jets CIN Bengals 19.6
SD Chargers KC Chiefs 19.1
CHI Bears HOU Texans 19.1
NE Patriots ARI Cardinals 19.0
CLE Browns PHI Eagles 18.9
TEN Titans MIN Vikings 18.8
MIA Dolphins SEA Seahawks 17.1

 

As the only favorite over a touchdown in Week 1 the Seattle Seahawks are expected to score the most points this week and allow the least.

Jan
2016
02

NFL Week 17 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS
ATL Falcons NO Saints 29.0
PIT Steelers CLE Browns 28.6
NE Patriots MIA Dolphins 28.3
NY Giants PHI Eagles 28.3
CAR Panthers TB Buccaneers 28.1
ARI Cardinals SEA Seahawks 26.8
HOU Texans JAX Jaguars 26.0
CIN Bengals BAL Ravens 25.5
KC Chiefs OAK Raiders 25.4
DEN Broncos SD Chargers 25.3
GB Pakcers MIN Vikings 24.3
NO Saints ATL Falcons 23.5
DET Lions CHI Bears 23.1
PHI Eagles NY Giants 22.8
NY Jets BUF Bills 22.3
CHI Bears DET Lions 22.1
DAL Cowboys WAS Redskins 21.6
MIN Vikings GB Pakcers 21.3
IND Colts TEN Titans 20.5
STL Rams SF 49ers 20.5
SEA Seahawks ARI Cardinals 20.3
JAX Jaguars HOU Texans 19.5
BUF Bills NY Jets 19.3
MIA Dolphins NE Patriots 18.3
TB Buccaneers CAR Panthers 18.1
CLE Browns PIT Steelers 18.1
OAK Raiders KC Chiefs 18.1
WAS Redskins DAL Cowboys 17.6
TEN Titans IND Colts 17.5
SF 49ers STL Rams 17.0
SD Chargers DEN Broncos 16.3
BAL Ravens CIN Bengals 16.0

 

The Atlanta Falcons are the lucky team that gets to play the Saints this week as they top this week’s list.  Falcons’ players should provide great value in the final full week to play daily fantasy football.  After disappointing last week the Steelers are second and should provide more points this week.  The New York Giants and Houston Texans provide value as well.  I had to guess on the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans line as there still isn’t a line.  I made the Colts 3-point favorites with a total of 38.  The Bengals and Broncos DST’s are probably the best two plays of the week. 

Dec
2015
26

NFL Week 16 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS
PIT Steelers BAL Ravens 28.5
ARI Cardinals GB Pakcers 27.5
NO Saints JAX Jaguars 27.4
CAR Panthers ATL Falcons 27.0
DET Lions SF 49ers 26.5
KC Chiefs CLE Browns 26.5
SEA Seahawks STL Rams 26.3
MIN Vikings NY Giants 25.5
TB Buccaneers CHI Bears 24.5
BUF Bills DAL Cowboys 24.4
JAX Jaguars NO Saints 24.1
NE Patriots NY Jets 24.1
MIA Dolphins IND Colts 23.3
GB Pakcers ARI Cardinals 23.0
HOU Texans TEN Titans 22.4
DEN Broncos CIN Bengals 21.5
NY Jets NE Patriots 21.1
CHI Bears TB Buccaneers 21.0
IND Colts MIA Dolphins 20.8
ATL Falcons CAR Panthers 20.3
NY Giants MIN Vikings 19.0
TEN Titans HOU Texans 18.6
BAL Ravens PIT Steelers 18.5
CIN Bengals DEN Broncos 18.0
DAL Cowboys BUF Bills 17.9
SF 49ers DET Lions 16.5
CLE Browns KC Chiefs 16.0
STL Rams SEA Seahawks 14.3

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers top the list this week as they look to extend their franchise record six straight games with 30 or more points.  They certainly have many excellent fantasy choices this week.  The New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are all in the top-6 and can provide some solid value plays.  Again the Seattle Seahawks defense tops the list for least points expected to be allowed and are an excellent DST choice. Chiefs and the Lions defenses are also solid plays as well.

Dec
2015
19

NFL Week 15 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS
NE Patriots TEN Titans 30.3
SEA Seahawks CLE Browns 28.9
ARI Cardinals PHI Eagles 27.3
NO Saints DET Lions 27.0
JAX Jaguars ATL Falcons 26.0
CAR Panthers NY Giants 26.0
PIT Steelers DEN Broncos 25.9
GB Pakcers OAK Raiders 25.8
DET Lions NO Saints 24.3
MIN Vikings CHI Bears 24.1
KC Chiefs BAL Ravens 23.9
PHI Eagles ARI Cardinals 23.8
SD Chargers DET Lions 23.5
CIN Bengals SF 49ers 23.1
ATL Falcons JAX Jaguars 23.0
BUF Bills WAS Redskins 23.0
DET Lions SD Chargers 22.5
OAK Raiders GB Pakcers 22.3
NY Giants CAR Panthers 22.0
IND Colts HOU Texans 21.9
WAS Redskins BUF Bills 21.0
HOU Texans IND Colts 19.9
DEN Broncos PIT Steelers 19.1
CHI Bears MIN Vikings 18.9
SF 49ers CIN Bengals 17.6
BAL Ravens KC Chiefs 17.1
TEN Titans NE Patriots 16.3
CLE Browns SEA Seahawks 13.9

 

There is a lot of cream on top with the Super Bowl winners and runner-ups holding the top two spots in that order.  Both the Patriots and Seahawks provide some prime daily fantasy opportunities and with injuries to starters some great value plays.  The Cardinals are weekly near the top of this list as they are second in the NFL in total points behind the Panthers.  The Saints on Monday Night will provide an opportunity for fantasy starters.  The Jaguars in the 5th spot also has some good value plays.  The Seahawks and Patriots defenses are one and two with the order flipped and both DST are solid starts.

 

Dec
2015
11

NFL Week 14 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS
KC Chiefs SD Chargers 27.6
TB Buccaneers NO Saints 27.5
CAR Panthers ATL Falcons 27.3
SEA Seahawks BAL Ravens 26.5
CIN Bengals PIT Steelers 26.4
NY Jets IND Colts 25.1
DEN Broncos OAK Raiders 25.0
GB Pakcers DAL Cowboys 24.5
NE Patriots HOU Texans 24.3
NY Giants MIA Dolphins 24.0
PHI Eagles BUF Bills 23.9
PIT Steelers CIN Bengals 23.6
CHI Bears WAS Redskins 23.5
NO Saints TB Buccaneers 23.0
JAX Jaguars IND Colts 23.0
IND Colts JAX Jaguars 23.0
BUF Bills PHI Eagles 22.9
MIA Dolphins NY Giants 22.5
DET Lions STL Rams 21.9
CLE Browns SF 49ers 21.4
HOU Texans NE Patriots 21.0
WAS Redskins CHI Bears 20.0
SF 49ers CLE Browns 19.6
ATL Falcons CAR Panthers 19.3
STL Rams DET Lions 19.1
OAK Raiders DEN Broncos 18.5
DAL Cowboys GB Pakcers 18.0
IND Colts NY Jets 17.9
SD Chargers KC Chiefs 17.1
BAL Ravens SEA Seahawks 14.0

 

I didn’t bother with the notes this week as I just published the preview and that has updated bet percentages.  There also were so few sides or totals I had strong opinions on so I feel this list can be trusted as is.  This really is just useful for fantasy or maybe proposition players.

Oddly the Chiefs and the Buccaneers top the list of most expected points scored in the NFL for week 14.  As you can see they are playing the Chargers and Saints respectively, two very poor defenses.  There should be some good value with KC and TB players this week in daily fantasy.  If you are like me and live in New York we have been give a stay will get to play DFS through the calendar year.  When setting your lineups I would avoid those teams on the bottom of this list.  As for picking a defense and special teams the Seahawks should be your primary selection.

Dec
2015
05

NFL Week 13 Expected Points

Team Opponent EPS Notes
NE Patriots PHI Eagles 28.8 70% on NE, 49% on OV, Line in 2, Total up 1
CAR Panthers NO Saints 28.3 73% on CAR, 59% on OV, Line out .5, Total up .5
PIT Steelers IND Colts 27.8 50% on PIT, 81% on OV, Line out .5, Total up 2
CIN Bengals CLE Browns 26.4 72% on CIN, 61% on OV, Line in 3, Total unch
CHI Bears SF 49ers 25.1 63% on CHI, 43% on OV, Line unch, Total up 1
NY Jets NY Giants 24.4 38% on NYJ, 77% on OV, Line out 2.5, Total up 1.5
ARI Cardinals STL Rams 23.6 78% on ARI, 52% on OV, Line in 2, Total down 1.5
DEN Broncos SD Chargers 23.5 74% on DEN, 59% on OV, Line in 1, Total unch
KC Chiefs OAK Raiders 23.5 65% on KC, 81% on OV, Line unch, Total up .5
TB Buccaneers ATL Falcons 23.3 39% on TB, 56% on OV, Line unch, Total up 1
MIA Dolphins BAL Ravens 23.0 42% on MIA, 54% on OV, Line unch, Total down 1
WAS Redskins DAL Cowboys 23.0 63% on WAS, 68% on OV, Line in 1, Total unch
TEN Titans JAX Jaguars 22.8 52% on TEN, 59% on OV, Line unch, Total up .5
ATL Falcons TB Buccaneers 22.8 Market fair, Over 46 looks good, Use in fantasy, Some wind
BUF Bills HOU Texans 22.6 39% on BUF, 57% on OV, Line unch, Total down 1
SEA Seahawks MIN Vikings 22.3 59% on SEA, 64% on OV, Line out 2, Total up 1.5
NY Giants NY Jets 22.1 NYJ is the pick, O/U market fair, Use in fantasy, Perfect weather
NO Saints CAR Panthers 21.8 Key CAR players 2nd most EPS this week, Perfect weather
JAX Jaguars TEN Titans 20.8 Market fair, Use in fantasy sparingly, Perfect weather
OAK Raiders KC Chiefs 20.8 Under is the fade, Avoid in fantasy, Probably be a wet field
MIN Vikings SEA Seahawks 20.3 SEA and OV taking money, Sprinkle in SEA players, Great weather
PHI Eagles NE Patriots 20.3 PHI and OV are bet, Can use players from both teams, Great weather
IND Colts PIT Steelers 20.3 Market fair, Key PIT players, Perfect weather
SD Chargers DEN Broncos 19.8 SD is the pick, Avoid in fantasy, Some wind
BAL Ravens MIA Dolphins 19.5 MIA and UN are leans, Avoid in fantasy, 50% chance of T-Storm
STL Rams ARI Cardinals 19.4 STL is the pick, UN is a lean, Avoid in fantasy
HOU Texans BUF Bills 19.1 Market fair, UN is a lean, Avoid in fantasy, Some wind
DAL Cowboys WAS Redskins 19.0 DAL and UN are leans, Avoid in fantasy, Perfect weather
SF 49ers CHI Bears 18.1 Market fair, OV is a lean, Use CHI players and DST
CLE Browns CIN Bengals 17.4 CLE is the pick, Total fair, Use but limit CIN players and DST, Perfect weather

All bet percentages are via Sportsinsights.com, Line and total info via Donbest.com

Nov
2015
28

NFL Week 12 Fantasy Preview

Houston Texans 25.8 – New Orleans Saints 22.5 You have to like Houston players tomorrow, but with quarterback Brian Hoyer not 100%, I wouldn’t risk him in daily fantasy lineups. I don’t like the running back situation for the Texans and they don’t really have a lot of other options. That makes wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins a must start even with his extremely high “salary” in DFS. New Orleans gave up huge games to number one wide receivers earlier this season. With the Saints off their bye week and with a new defensive coordinator they play a little better than expected. On the offensive side New Orleans players are definitely usable, but QB Drew Brees is a little pricy and the Texans D has been stout since their bye. Still running back Mark Ingram needs to be considered due to his high floor.

Atlanta Falcons 23.3 – Minnesota Vikings 22.3 Even those expected numbers aren’t the sexiest this is a game I’m going to key as there is excellent divergence indicating the over. The total opened up 44 and is up to 45.5 with 54% of the bets on the under, well below par. Last week at home the Vikings gave up 7 scores (5 FGs, 2 TDs) and I think their defense may continue to slump. QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones is a stack along with RB Tevin Coleman as a value play with starting RB Devonta Freeman out with a concussion. The Vikings also provide some viable fantasy players, led by RB Adrian Peterson. QB Teddy Bridewater, WR Stefon Diggs and TE Kyle Rudolph also can be mixed in. With questionable weather in many venues this week that’s more of a reason to use players from this dome game.

Cincinnati Bengals 25.8 -St. Louis Rams 16.5 Even with the Bengals tied for 2nd on this week’s expected points list, I don’t love their offensive players this week. There is rain in the forecast and the Rams defense at its core is still solid. The Cincy RB situation is tough as Giovanni Bernard has been great catching passes and Jeremy Hill picked up a pair of TDs last week. QB Andy Dalton is more of a season long start as is WR A.J. Green and even TE Tyler Eifert might be better used in future weeks in DFS. I do really like the Bengals DST in this game as Rams starting QB Nick Foles is back in replacing injured Case Keenum, but his confidence has to be shaken. I don’t love RB Todd Gurley this week as he is slumping as teams are keying on the run game.

Indianapolis Colts 24.5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.8 I don’t like the Bucs players this week as I think the Colts defense is playing good football and CB Vontae Davis will shut down Bucs WR Mike Evans. TB RB Doug Martin is going to be overplayed after his 200+ yard game last week. Even though he has been excellent on the road this year, rookie QB Jameis Winston isn’t a good start this week. I do think you can use Colts RB Frank Gore as he should get plenty of touches tomorrow.

New York Giants 24.8 – Washington Redskins 22.3 I like Washington and the under here fading the public. That will allow me as a contrarian to avoid Giants players and hope that they are overused in competitor’s lineups. The Giants have major injuries to the offensive line and are missing their number one tight end. New York’s defense is much healthier and I think that unit will be the better group. I don’t like many of Washington’s players either even though QB Kirk Cousins has been strong at home. WR DeSean Jackson is more of a season long pick as Giants CB Prince Amukamara is expected back. Tight end Jordan Reed is a solid option for the Skins, their running backs share the ball too much. There will be a wet field for sure and it potentially still will be raining.

Oakland Raiders 22.8 – Tennessee Titans 21.5 Tennessee and the under is the pick here going against the public and due to the fact that the field should be very wet and heavy rains could come down during the game. The Raiders have four very popular daily fantasy players in their QB, RB, and top 2 WRs. I am hoping to see a lot of Oakland players in other peoples DraftKings lineups. It also isn’t the best time to play Tennessee players as well with the messy field. I do like Titans TE Delanie Walker who leads all NFL tight ends in receptions.

Kansas Chiefs 23.9 – Buffalo Bills 17.9 I think we could see another Chiefs blowout as they have had the propensity to pull off of late. The Bills still have a good defense and it probably isn’t the best matchup, but there is one potential value play. Running back Spencer Ware is likely to be the workhorse for KC with Charcandrick West doubtful. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is questionable to play. I like the Chiefs DST again this week as they have been getting a large number of sacks and are expected to give up the 3rd least amount of points in Week 12.

New York Jets 23.3 – Miami Dolphins 19.5 This game is producing a fair market and I would expect few fireworks. This is a low total and has dropped. There are a lot of injuries to the Dolphins linebackers, Jets RB Chris Ivory could be a decent start. I don’t like much else from their offense. On the other side of the ball New York CB Darrelle Revis is out which should allow Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry to produce even though he isn’t 100%. Miami RB Lamar Miller is usually a strong option, but the Jets have a strong rush defense and young Jay Ajayi cutting into his action.

Jacksonville Jaguars 25.6 – San Diego Chargers 21.1 Jacksonville is going to be an official selection and I really like a lot of their players this week on DraftKings including their defense and special teams as a sleeper. The Chargers are really hurt, especially on the offensive line and playing a 10am PT game. I like QB Blake Bortles with RB T.J. Yeldon and WR Allen Robinson. You could also consider number 2 WR Allen Hurns and TE Julius Thomas. I am definitely going to use that group as a backbone for a few lineups. I am avoiding all Chargers players.

Arizona Cardinals 27.5 – San Francisco 49ers 17.3 Being the biggest favorite of the day has the Cardinals expected to score the most points of week 12 by 1.7 points over second place. At the same time they are also expected to give up the 2nd least number of points. That makes this games fantasy prospects pretty easy. You can use Cardinals players and their DST freely, while avoiding San Fran players at all cost. QB Carson Palmer should put up big numbers and seemingly is a lock to throw 2 TDs+. He has a bunch of quality receivers, but there are some injuries to the group. I feel that it will be same duo that excelled last week that will perform tomorrow. Larry Fitzgerald will get a lot of targets and should have bunch of grabs. I also think the Cards get the ball in the hands of rookie J.J. Nelson as he is healthy and insanely fast.

Seattle Seahawks 24.8 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21.3 The Steelers are off their bye week and should have a better defensive effort, but I still think they will give up their share of points. Seattle RB Thomas Rawls should get a lot of touches again and I would think is still very effective. I also like QB Russell Wilson and TE Jimmy Graham this week as the Seahawks should score. I would think the Steelers keep up and the “Legion of Boom” Seattle secondary isn’t nearly on the level they have been at and Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is a suitable starter along with his top two receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. I would just sprinkle them in, but there is a chance that this game is a shootout.

New England Patriots 23.1 – Denver Broncos 20.4 The Patriots are usually up on top of the expected points list, but the injuries have caught up with them. They are also on the road playing a top defense. WR Danny Amendola is added to the injury list as he will be out and QB Tom Brady is down to just a couple of viable options. I would avoid all Patriots, especially at their exceedingly high salaries. I would include TE Rob Gronkowski in the avoid list as CB Aqib Talib has shut him down in the past. The Pats O-line is healthier, but I don’t think the lack of skill position players makes the whole team avoidable. I don’t like the Broncos offensive players at all in this game either.

Cleveland Browns 22.0 – Baltimore Ravens 19.0 With a total of only 41 points this is probably a game to avoid. I do however like each of these two team’s tight ends. Browns TE Gary Barnidge has had a big season and seems to work better with QB Josh McCown. Ravens TE Crockett Gilmore I think also is a viable starter in DFS as new Ravens QB Matt Schaub has a history of utilizing the tight end. Ravens RB Javorius Allen may also provide some solid value as he is the clear cut number one in Baltimore.

Nov
2015
28

NFL Week 12 Expected Points Chart

Team Opponent EPS Notes
ARI Cardinals SF 49ers 27.5 68% on ARI, Total split, No movement on either
HOU Texans NO Saints 25.8 61% on HOU, 67% on OV, Total down .5
CIN Bengals STL Rams 25.8 55% on CIN, 45% on OV, No movement on either
JAX Jaguars SD Chargers 25.6 38% on JAX, 59% on OV, Line out 1, Total down 1
NY Giants WAS Redskins 24.8 77% on NYG and OV, Line out 1.5, Total unch
SEA Seahawks PIT Steelers 24.8 31% on SEA,  63% on OV, Line in 1, Total up 2
IND Colts TB Buccaneers 24.5 36% on IND, 74% on OV, Line unch, Total down 1
KC Chiefs BUF Bills 23.9 55% on KC, 39% on OV, Line out .5, Total down 1
ATL Falcons MIN Vikings 23.3 30% on ATL, 48% on OV, Line in 1, Total up 1.5
NY Jets MIA Dolphins 23.3 48% on NYJ, 55% on OV, Line out .5, Total down .5
NE Patriots DEN Broncos 23.1 69% on NE, 32% on OV, Line unch, Total down 1
OAK Raiders TEN Titans 22.8 72% on OAK, 67% on OV, Line in 1, Total down 1
NO Saints HOU Texans 22.5 Market fair, lean towards UN, use HOU players
MIN Vikings ATL Falcons 22.3 Market fair, strong signal on OV, Game to key on
WAS Redskins NY Giants 22.3 WAS and UN is public fade, use players sparingly, wet field
CLE Browns BAL Ravens 22.0 74% on CLE, 44% on OV, Line out 3, Total down .5
TB Buccaneers IND Colts 21.8 IND and UN is public fade, Avoid TB players, can use IND
TEN Titans OAK Raiders 21.5 TEN and UN is public fade, Avoid OAK players, Soaked field
PIT Steelers SEA Seahawks 21.3 Market fair, Smart money on OV, good weather, game to key
SD Chargers JAX Jaguars 21.1 JAX is a play, Use their players and DST is sleeper, key JAX
DEN Broncos NE Patriots 20.4 NE middle of pack is fair, No value in NE players, DEN too
MIA Dolphins NY Jets 19.5 Fair markets, Low total, Avoid in fantasy football
BAL Ravens CLE Browns 19.0 Fair markets, Low total, Avoid in fantasy football
BUF Bills KC Chiefs 17.9 Fair markets, Use KC players and DST, Avoid BUF players
SF 49ers ARI Cardinals 17.3 Fair markets, Key ARI players and DST, Avoid SF players
STL Rams CIN Bengals 16.5 Fair markets, Use CIN players, Key DST, Avoid STL players, Rainy

All bet percentages are via Sportsinsights.com, Line and total info via Donbest.com

Nov
2015
27

NFL Week 11 Fantasy Recap

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Tennessee Titans 13 It was a quiet game for the majority of players on both sides as this game was a scoring dud with only two touchdowns in the game. The standouts were each team’s number one targets. For Jacksonville wide receiver Allen Robinson caught 5 balls for 113 yards. On the Tennessee side tight end Delanie Walker went for 8 catches and 109 yards and his 53 catches (on just 66 targets) on the season lead all tight ends.

Carolina Panthers 44 – Washington Redskins 16 The Panthers went off, but I unfortunately like the Redskins and the under in this game so I used their 3 big stars lightly. QB Cam Newton threw for 246 yards and 5 TDs with 16 more rushing yards and no turnovers. He is not just a NFL MVP candidate, but a very strong fantasy football player as well. Running back Jonathan Stewart (21-102 and 1-12, TD in the air) continues to produce consistently and tight end Greg Olsen (3-54, TD) had a solid day. The other 3 TD catches were split up as no other Panthers skill position player as emerged into startablity. The Panthers D was strong with 5 forced turnovers and 5 sacks. On the Washington side the only standout was WR DeSean Jackson who is finally healthy as he had 5 grabs for 87 yards with one going for 56-yard TD.

Detroit Lions 18 – Oakland Raiders 13 This 31-point game was very disappointing as I expected this game to be right around that 50-point total and I keyed this game on DraftKings. Detroit had a couple of long drives in terms of time and yardage that resulted in just 3 points. Matthew Stafford threw for 282 yards and ran for 31 more and a TD. WR Calvin Johnson (5-88), RB Theo Riddick (6-14, 5-72 in the air) and WR Golden Tate (8-73) all had decent games, but the lack of TDs were limiting. It was pretty much a whitewash on the Raiders side as the usually explosive offense provided little to nothing.

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Miami Dolphins 14 This game was disappointing as well, but the late total drop and the thunderstorm had me limit the use of players in this game. Cowboys’ veteran RB Darren McFadden continues to be a workhorse (29-129, 3-20 receiving). QB Tony Romo had a solid game with 227 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. No Dallas receiver caught more than 4 balls. The Miami side was very sad as there wasn’t a strong game in the bunch.

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Atlanta Falcons 21 There was an in game injury that hurt a lot of fantasy players and Falcons backers as starting RB Devonta Freeman went out with a concussion. He only got to carry the ball 3 times, but one of those runs went for 39 yards and Freeman had 43 yards on those 3 carries. His backup rookie Tevin Coleman lost a fumble and wasn’t good with 48 yards on 17 carries (2.8 ypc) and a long run of just 10 yards. Falcons WR Julio Jones was a monster with 9 catches for 160 yards on 15 targets as he leads the NFL in receiving yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw 3 TDs, but also threw 3 picks along with 280 yards. On the Colts side I was expecting more from RB Frank Gore (14-34, 5-46 receiving), but he had two short TD receptions poached by backup Ahmad Bradshaw. Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck spread his 213 yards around and added 2 INTs to those 2 TD passes to Bradshaw.

Baltimore Ravens 16 – St. Louis Rams 13 This was a game to avoid to begin with and the one star Rams rookie RB Todd Gurley had just 66 yards on 25 carries with a 1-yard TD run, but didn’t have one target from QB Case Keenum. The Ravens lost their starting running back Justin Forsett after just 4 carries and he is out for the year. Rookie 4th round pick Javorius Allen (22-67, 5-48) now gets a chance and could provide solid value on DK. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is out for the year and will be replaced with Matt Schaub.

Houston Texans 24 – New York Jets 17 Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins continues to show that he is among the league’s elite as he was able to make a couple of plays against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. He was target 12 times by QB T.J. Yates and connected just 5 times, but for 118 yards and 2 TDs (61, 20). On DraftKings and other bonus leagues Hopkins had one of the best days in a very low scoring week. On the Jets side running back Chris Ivory was very quiet and their top two WR’s were solid but underwhelming.

Green Bay Packers 30 – Minnesota Vikings 13 Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had a better real game than fantasy one with 212 yards and 2 TDs with no turnovers. His big receiver was James Jones who caught 6 balls for 109 yards and a big 4th quarter TD. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy broke out of nowhere with a 100 yard game on 22 carries after being demoted a couple of weeks ago. Packers PK Mason Crosby kicked 5 field goals I was expecting a bigger game out of Vikings RB Adrian Peterson but he just had 13 carries for 45 yards with a TD and just 2 grabs for 16 yards. QB Teddy Bridgwater nearly hit the 300-yard mark with 296 and a TD and 43 more rushing. His number one target was TE Kyle Rudolph (6-106) who had a 47-yard TD reception and was targeted 9 times.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45 – Philadelphia Eagles 17 The Philadelphia Eagles defense completely got shredded as a couple of the biggest games of the day came from Tampa Bay. I thought that it would be Philly that would have the big game as they went out 7-point favorites and I used their players liberally on DK.com. I had the wrong team as Bucs QB Jameis Winston tied a rookie record with 5 TD passes. He threw for 246 yards as well and split up the yards and the TDs. TB RB Doug Martin had a massive game with 235 yards on 27 carries. Eagles players disappointed across the board as the best game was out of 2nd TE Brent Celek (7-79 on 10 targets).

Denver Broncos 17 – Chicago Bears 15 This very low score was about what I and the market was expecting, but there was a lot more yardage gained than you would think considering the score. Each team had a goal line stand after long drives. Broncos QB Brock Osweiler looked very capable going 20-27 for 250 yards with 2 TDs and 0 turnovers. Denver finally got the running game going with Ronnie Hillman (21-102, 1-2) the clear number one over C.J. Anderson (12-59, 2-13). Newly acquired tight end Vernon Davis had 6 catches on 6 targets for 68 yards. TE Owen Daniels (4-69) outgained him by 1-yard. The Bears big game was Marquess Wilson (4-102) as he was the number one target with Alshon Jeffery out.

Arizona Cardinals 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 31 It didn’t start out well for Cardinals QB Carson Palmer with 2 interceptions on the first 3 drives. Palmer blew up in the 3rd quarter with 3 TD passes and he finished the night with 317 yards and 4 TDs and just those two picks. WR J.J. Nelson came out of nowhere with 4 catches for 142 yards and a TD. Nelson just made his first 3 NFL catches the week prior. Arizona’s 5th round pick is a real burner and adds another element to an already explosive offense. Veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald (8-90) had 13 targets twice more than the next Cardinals receiver. Bengals QB Andy Dalton had a strong game with 315 yards and 2 TDs. Cincy’s number one receiver was running back Giovani Bernard with 8 catches for 128 yards (he rushed for 18 more). TE Tyler Eifert (3-22) added 2 more receiving touchdowns to tie for the league lead with 11 total TDs. Bengals RB Jeremy Hill (13-45) scored the other 2 TDs.

Seattle Seahawks 29 – San Francisco 49ers 13 Seattle undrafted rookie RB Thomas Rawls had the game of the week and on the best of the year with 209 yards rushing on 30 carries and a TD with 3 catches for 46 and another TD. Rawls will be the man for the next month with Marshawn Lynch out. Another rookie, wide receiver Tyler Lockett scored the other two Seahawks TDs on 4 catches for 48 yards. QB Russell Wilson had a strong game with 260 yards passing, 3 TDs and 30 more yards on the ground. On the San Fran side QB Blaine Gabbert was alright with 264 yards passing and a TD with 22 more on the ground. Gabbert has the job the rest of the year and might actually be viable one week. WR Anquan Boldin (5-93) is healthy and effective again. RB Shaun Draughn (12-37, 8-40) also had a solid game in PPR leagues. The Seahawks DST was a dud with zero turnovers, just 2 sacks and those 13 points allowed.

Kansas City Chiefs 33 – San Diego Chargers 3 The Chiefs defense was the star again this week with just those 3 points allowed 2 turnovers, 3 sacks and an interception return for a TD. Their first touchdown of the game was also scored by a defensive player, 346-pound defensive lineman Dontari Poe. Starting RB Charcandrick West was injured mid-game, but was only marginally effective. His backup Spencer Ware excelled in garbage time and sealed the game with a pair of touchdowns and 96 yards on just 11 carries. The Chargers offense is a mess with a shaky offensive line and their 1st and 2nd receivers out.

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 13 The Patriots offense isn’t anywhere close to where it was early in the year as injuries continue to limit their potency. Tom Brady is hanging in, but at 20-39 for 277 yards with a TD and an INT he is way overpriced in Daily Fantasy. Wide receiver Danny Amendola (9-117 on 12 carries) replaced Julian Edelman before he got hurt and is questionable this week. Running back James White scored both of the Pats TDs on just 4 touches. TE Rob Gronkowski had just 2 catches for 37 yards on 7 targets. The Bills got a nice performance from running back LeSean McCoy (20-82, TD and 6-41) and that is it as the Pats defense played a strong game.

Nov
2015
21

NFL Week 11 Fantasy Preview

After a very low scoring week in both reality and fantasy in the NFL, this week more low scoring games are expected. With the Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers all on byes some of the worst pass defenses in the league aren’t playing. The public is on a lot of unders this week which has me actually expecting more points in those games than expected.

Carolina Panthers 26.0 – Washington Redskins 18.8 With Carolina expected to put up the 4th most points of any team this week their big 3 are starts in all formats. Quaterback Cam Newton, running back Jonathan Stewart and tight end Greg Olsen are all top 5 players this week at their positions. The being said this total has dropped and I like the Redskins +7. I will include these Panthers in daily lineups, but conservatively. Both Carolina wide receivers veteran Ted Ginn, Jr. and rookie Devin Funchess are legitimate bye week replacements in season long leagues. There are a lot of top receivers off this week. The rookie Funchess is seeing a lot more snaps and is a big play receiver, but probably won’t get enough targets to be a good DFS start. The Redskins are expected to score the 3rd least number of points and we saw last week the Panthers shut down the Titans on the road. I would avoid Washington players this week in daily fantasy and limit their use in season-long leagues.

Detroit Lions 25.4 – Oakland Raiders 24.4 Now at 50 points this is expected to be the highest scoring game on the board. It has gone up with 2/3rds of the bets on the over. No opinion on the total, but it should be close to this number making this is the prime game for daily fantasy. This game will be played inside on turf and there is a lot of speed on both offenses. There could be some really good value with some of the Lions especially WR Golden Tate, TE Eric Ebron and rookie running back Ameer Abdullah. I think this is the week for Raiders WR Michael Crabtree after a bust week last week in the wind. I would team him up with QB Derek Carr not that rookie WR Amari Cooper should be ignored. Raiders RB Latavius Murray is also a good start this week.

Dallas Cowboys 23.8 Miami Dolphins 22.8 Only 41% of the bets are on the over and this total is around unchanged at 46/46.5. With this expected to be a close game these teams are 10th and 11th on this week’s list. Though keep an eye on this total and the weather as thunderstorms are still in the forecast. If the public is wrong and this goes over that would make for this to be a good fantasy game. I think you could try to stack either starting QB with their top receivers. Cowboys QB Tony Romo to WR Dez Bryant or Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill to WR Jarvis Landry is worth a shot. I don’t love the running backs in this game as Cowboys RB Darren McFadden is probable. Miami running back Lamar Miller has been excellent, but Jay Ajayi has been cutting into his action.

Atlanta Falcons 26.3 – Indianapolis Colts 21.0 I like Atlanta and the over here as the public is on neither and the line is unchanged and the total is up. I will look to key their players, especially running back Devonta Freeman. QB Matt Ryan to WR Julio Jones is going to be a popular stack, but Jones will be going up against an excellent cornerback in Vontae Davis. Off their bye week I could see the Falcons work in different receivers and tight ends and Ryan really spread the ball out. On the Colts side it is hard to get too excited with their passing game with Matt Hasselbeck at QB. Though WR T.Y. Hilton is probably still worth a flier in daily leagues along with running back Frank Gore. To get the over the Colts will have to score some points too. As the weather starts to turn it is nice using fantasy players playing indoors.

Baltimore Ravens 22.1 – St. Louis Rams 19.4 At 41.5/42 this is a very low total and there should be some wind tomorrow in Baltimore. That would have me avoiding this game aside from Rams RB Todd Gurley. He might be a little overpriced this week, but still is a very solid play as he is guaranteed a lot of touches. Obviously you have to stay away from the St. Louis passing game with Case Keenum under center. For the Ravens QB Joe Flacco is more of a bye week replacement. The Rams defense was terrible last week, I would expect a little better effort, especially against the run, Ravens’ Justin Forsett isn’t a great DFS start.

New York Jets 21.8 – Houston Texans 18.5 At around 40 this is another extremely low total and another game to avoid. I wouldn’t play any offensive player in this game in daily fantasy and limit if possible in season long. The Jets defense though could be a good start.

Minnesota Vikings 22.8 – Green Bay Packers 21.5 It is expected to be cold and windy and this total is drifting lower. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is the standout player in this game as I would expect a lot of touches for their best player. Considering the player’s salaries the only value I see on Green Bay is wide receiver Davante Adams who had 21 targets last week. I would wait on playing Packers until a much better matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles 25.4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19.6 Philadelphia and the over are both unpopular which has me looking to key Eagles in DFS. I don’t know what receiver it will be some I’m going to combine QB Mark Sanchez with RB DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterbacks tend to have good chemistry with 3rd and 4th string wide receivers and 2nd and 3rd string tight ends. Last week number one WR Jordan Matthews had a quiet day. It was 2nd TE Brent Celek that had the most yards. With number two RB Ryan Mathews expected to miss, Murray should get extra touches along with Darren Sproles. Sproles catching balls could help Sanchez’s numbers. Even though they are expected to score less than 20 points, I like some Bucs tomorrow. WR Mike Evans is a must start in all formats including one-week leagues. RB Doug Martin also should get plenty of touches.

Denver Broncos 20.9 – Chicago Bears 19.9 This is another really low total and a cold and breezy day in Chicago and a fantasy game to avoid. I think either team’s DST could be a play. The Broncos defense should play better this week and they can be a great fantasy D getting sacks and turnovers galore. The Bears defense though inexperienced is facing Broncos QB Brock Osweiler who is making his first NFL start. I don’t know what to expect from him, but it has the potential to be ugly. The Broncos offensive line is very poor.

Arizona Cardinals 26.5 – Cincinnati Bengals 22.0 This total has popped from 47 to 48.5 with 69% of the bets on the over. No opinion as a bet, but that number makes this a very viable fantasy game. That being said there will be points and yards, but I don’t love this game. I would think more on the Cardinals side where QB Carson Palmer continues to produce massive numbers. I don’t think he provides the best value and he has injury concerns to his receivers. Bengals number one WR A.J. Green should probably not be in your DraftKings lineup going against the Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson. I personally am going to stay away and let other competitors try to figure this game out.

Seattle Seahawks 26.0 – hosting the San Francisco 49ers 13.5 With this massive point spread the Seahawks are expected to be the 5th highest scoring team this week and the 49ers the lowest. At 13.5 the 49ers are 5 points below the 2nd to last team, the Houston Texans. That is off a bye week with QB Blaine Gabbert who actually was somewhat effective a couple of weeks ago. That was at home against the Atlanta Falcons this is at the 12th Man against the “Legion of Boom”. The Seahawks defense needs to be in Daily Fantasy lineups. Their offensive players should be considered as well, though Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Doug Baldwin aren’t a 100%. QB Russell Wilson should have a strong game.

Kansas City Chiefs 24.0 – San Diego Chargers 20.8 The Chargers have been in a lot of great fantasy games and their QB Philip Rivers has had some monsters. He has very few weapons with his top two receivers out. This is not the week to play Rivers in DFS. The Chiefs are a strong defense and San Diego is in the bottom bunch of teams this week on the EPS list. I do think the Chiefs could provide some decent games against a shaky Chargers defense, but they are off their bye and should be improved. I like both Chiefs RB Charcandrick West and TE Travis Kelce in all formats. QB Alex Smith is a good bye week replacement in season-long leagues.

New England Patriots 27.5 – Buffalo Bills 20.5 Amazingly with their number one receiver and pass catching running back out and injuries to the offensive the line the Patriots are still expected to score the most points this week. That is against the strong Buffalo Bills defense and head coach Rex Ryan. I highly doubt New England will score the most points this week. However with the injury to Julian Edelman there should be some excellent value with WR Danny Amendola and WR Brandon LaFell (to a lesser extent). I don’t love the Bills offense this week. They are more season long options. I am starting Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins at QB, RB and WR in one season long league that I’m 6-4 in. I will not use any of them in DFS.