David Alcaro: The CHieF

The Open Championship, Royal St. George’s Golf Club.  Rory McIlroy is the favorite as his odds dropped from 15-1 to 6-1 during his 4-day romp over the US Open field.  They have settled back to 8-1, but I don’t think this is a very good bet.  The Open Championship has brought us many surprises and I think we can see another one again.  Of the top players in the field I am going to take Nick Watney (37-1).   This tournament has been very good to Americans and has been the place for a lot of first time major winners.  I think that Watney will benefit from his experience in failing with a big lead in last year’s PGA Championship.   However I do think we have a good shot a complete outsider as we have seen plenty of times in recent year’s in The Open Championship.  If you can find a sportsbook that offers a nice field bet, it could work well here.  Some of those possible field players to watch are Nicolas Colsaerts (190-1),  Webb Simpson (200-1), Thomas Aiken (270-1),  Gary Woodland (330-1),  and Kyle Stanley (450-1).

The US Open is upon us from Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Maryland just outside our nation’s capital.  This is a wide open tournament that could definitely bring an unexpected winner.  Tiger Woods will not be in the field, but I still think this event will draw plenty of interest.  We can only hope for another mad dash to the finish that the year’s first major brought us, the highlight being the birdie-birdie-birdie-birdie finish by Charl Schartzel at the Masters.

When looking at the odds at Betfair, I have a hard time suggesting backing golfers with odds inside 30-1.  I just think that this tournament has been so unpredictable I would rather take a group of golfers outside of the top bunch.  Here are the best of that group in order of what I consider best value.

David Toms 75-1 Has been playing good golf again after some lean years and he has won a major championship. Toms is nearly pick ‘em head to head with K.J. Choi.  Choi, who is always one of my favorites, should be good in this tournament and is coming off a win at the TPC and is 34-1 on Betfair.  Toms is also a big favorite with a line move head to head against defending champ Graeme McDowell.  He is 3rd in the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, and 2nd in greens in regulation, always a premium at USGA events.

Paul Casey 75-1 Another golfer who is getting a lot of action head to head, both over Ian Poulter and Padraig Harrington.  Casey has also seen a lot of action on Betfair in England.

Rickie Fowler 75-1 Common theme, looking for golfer’s who are taking action in Las Vegas and and in London. Both the case here with Fowler.

Webb Simpson 150-1 Always seems like a solid sleeper pick.  He always gets a lot of support in the betting markets and seems to be a consistent performer.  The type of surprise I’m looking for.

Kevin Na 330-1 He is a 1/2 favorite head to head over Ryo Ishikawa.  He handled shooting a 16 (at the Valero Texas Open) better than anyone could imagine.

As for the top golfers I like Luke Donald the best, all things being equal would take him to win.  I think he is a much better pick than Lee Westwood or Phil Mickelson.  I like Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar in that next group over the likes of Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan, Dustin Johnson and Martin Kaymer.  Nick Watney is garnering support and is loaded with talent, but his meltdown on Sunday at last year’s PGA makes him hard to back at 34-1.

Golfers to avoid in matchups, pools or could be bet against: Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell, Erine Els, Geoff Ogilvy, Padraig Harrington, Anthony Kim and Ryo Ishikawa.