David Alcaro: The CHieF

These two series are extremely hard to handicap I will start with the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston Bruins (3) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (5) Both teams took similar paths to the Conference Finals, both faced adversity in the First Round.  Boston was down 0-2 to the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay down 1-3 to the Pittsburgh Penguins before they both prevailed in 7 games.  They both swept their 2nd Round opponent the Bruins over the Philadelphia Flyers and the Lightning over the Washington Capitals and completed this feat as underdogs (the Lightning significant underdogs).  For the series the Bruins are slight favorites (-135) and the line hasn’t moved much at all, the public action is just a bit more on the Bruins, so there are no real indicators there. This series feels like a coin toss with Bruins slightly favored because of the home ice.  If I had to lean one way or another I would take the Tampa Bay Lightning.  I have been more impressed with their all around play.  They have an fantastic group of role players to go along with a fire power edge they have over the Bruins.  You could argue the 3 most offensively skilled players are all on Tampa Bay (Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lecavalier) and quite possibly a 4th with Simon Gagne expected to play for TB.  The Bruins have a perceived edge between the pipes with Tim Thomas most likely winning the Vezina trophy for the leagues top goaltender.  However Lightning net minder 41-year old Dwayne Roloson has been just as good as Thomas with nearly identical post season stats.  Although I am rooting for the Bruins here, I will have to take the Tampa Bay Lightning to win in 6 games.  I don’t feel very strongly about this at all, both teams seem to have some magic going.  I feel the Bruins have a bit more as they look follow the Chicago Blackhawks and be another Original 6 NHL team to end a long Stanley Cup drought.  However, the Lightning have just a little more talent.  I especially like the odds in Game 1 tonight with the Lightning (+120), this line has come in from the opener and the public is on the Bruins.  I think Game 1’s don’t necessarily favor the home teams like game 7s do.  Take the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1.

Western Conference Finals

Vancouver Canucks (1) vs. San Jose Sharks (2) The two best teams in the West advance in the Conference Finals in what should be a fantastic series.  Again both of these teams have taken similar paths, both winning one series in 6 games.  The Canucks in Round 2 over the Nashville Predators and and the Sharks in Round 1 over the Los Angeles Kings.  In their other series both teams nearly blew 3-0 series leads before finally closing out at home in game 7.  In the 1st Round the Canucks almost were upset by the Chicago Blackhawks and in the 2nd Round the Sharks nearly collapsed to the Detroit Red Wings.  So we have another series of two teams playing similar hockey that both seem to have destiny on their side.  The Canucks are favored in the series (-170) which is out from the opener (-150). The Canucks are seeing more of the public action as well so I don’t feel this is necessarily smart money moving this line.  Vancouver was the best team in the NHL all year, 12 points better than San Jose and won 3 of 4 against the Sharks.  Canuck Ryan Kesler is probably the Conn Smythe favorite at this point and is the hottest player in the playoffs.  Add the home ice advantage and the series line is very fair.  I don’t see value in either side.  I think Vancouver will win this series, but in the NHL with how close these games and series can be it is hard to lay -170.  I will make the prediction of Vancouver Canucks in 7 Games, but don’t suggest a bet due to lack of value. One possibility would be to wait and hope that the Sharks steal Game 1 and then you could get the Canucks as a slight underdog.