David Alcaro: The CHieF

A bit of a tough day yesterday, couldn’t get Stopshoppingmaria to hold up and Grace Hall came up short and a couple of scratches made it a tough day, but not a total disaster. Hopefully will have a better day today. I am not going to bother with the first two races and jump right into the Breeders’ Cup races.

Race 3 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Interesting race to start the festivities. I am going to go with 1 Birdrun (7-2 ML) to win the opener, I like the breeding here and the connections. For place I am going with 9 Cease (6-1 ML) followed by 11 A.U. Miner (3-1 ML). I can’t support the Europeans, who are comfortable with the distance, but not with the dirt.

1-9-11

Race 4 Juvenile Turf Going to avoid the horses starting in the outside post positions. They had problems yesterday on the turf. So I am going with 4 Farraaj (15-1 ML), this horse has been bet heavy on betfair so don’t expect even double digit odds, but think it will win. To fill out the trifecta I am going to take 7 Caspar Netscher (6-1 ML) and 3 Shkspeare Shaliyah (15-1 ML), the only American horse here that I think will factor. I will throw in 5 Wrote (12-1 ML) to round out the superfecta.

4-7-3-5

Race 5 Sprint Going to go with my favorite jockey here John Velazquez who seems to have jumped on 6 Freeze Frame (10-1 ML) to win over 2 Giant Ryan (8-1 ML) and 1 Euroears (4-1 ML). All 3 of these horse ran together their last time out and think they make up the triple.

6-2-1

Race 6 Turf Sprint Again I am going to stay away from the horse starting from the outside and going to go with 8 Regally Ready (3-1 ML) to repeat over long shot 2 Holiday for Kitten (30-1 ML) and 7 Hoofit (15-1 ML). I’ll fill out the super with 10 Havelock (9-2 ML).

8-2-7-10

Race 7 Dirt Mile Probably my best bet of the day here with 5 Wilburn (4-1 ML) who will most likely go off a bit cheaper. Trainer Steve Asmussen has his rabbit in the race which will be a huge help in defeating 1 The Factor (7-2 ML) will hold on for 2nd and am going with a bomb for show in 4 Tres Borrachos (30-1 ML)

5-1-4

Race 8 Turf This is the easiest race to handicap as I am going to ignore the American horses and will narrow myself to the 5 Euros and narrow by one more and go with 4 Euro breds. Now the prices won’t be good so order here is key. I am going with 7 Sea Moon (4-1 ML) over 2 Sarafina (5-2 ML) over 9 Midday (4-1 ML) on top of 1 St Nicholas Abbey (9-2 ML).

7-2-9-1

Race 9 Juvenile I am going to go with the upset here and 9 Alpha (15-1 ML) to avenge his loss in the Champagne to beat 10 Union Rags (2-1 ML) with 5 Hansen (10-1 ML) and 4 Drill (8-1) filling out the top 4.

9-10-5-4

Race 10 Mile aka (the Goldikova race) Going to go up with another upset here and all Euros and 11 Strong Suit (10-1 ML). He is bet down heavy on betfair and could be good value here in the states who will be over betting 1 Goldikova (7-5 ML) who I think will get 2nd. I like 8 Byword (12-1 ML) for show and 2 Zoffany (20-1 ML) for 4th.

11-1-8-2

Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Classic Very tough race to handicap and I’m going to throw out the favorite because I don’t think Uncle Mo can make the distance and see no value. I am going to go with my New York bias and 2 Flat Out (6-1 ML) to beat another success in New York, Belmont Stakes winner 4 Ruler On Ice (30-1 ML) in what will be a very close race. I think the filly 10 Havre De Grace (3-1 ML) hits the board with 13 To Honor And Serve (12-1 ML) rounding out a juicy superfecta.

2-4-10-13

I’m going to stay away from the first two races of the day, allowance races that are difficult to handicap.  The next two races are low level stakes races.  I am going to give you a couple of tips I got from Bruno De Julio at Grade 1 Racing that seem promising. The 5 Glenwood Canyon (5-1 ML) in the 3rd race and the 10 Fast Bullet (5-1 ML) in the 4th race.  I think both of these horse’s odds will come in, but still would be good bets at 4-1 or 7/2 (especially Fast Bullet). Now on the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday, Ladies’ Day:

Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint Not truly Ladies’ Day as it is mostly colts (5 Shumoos is a filly, 7 Holdin Bullets a gelding) in this one with a clear cut favorite and probably the biggest favorite of the entire Breeders’ Cup in 6 Secret Circle (6-5 ML). I along with most everyone else likes this horse to dominate in this one and quite possibly get stretched out and be a Kentucky Derby contender next year.  Secret Circle is a legit single in exotics. 9 Vexor (5-1 ML) is my place horse here with 8 Jake Mo (20-1 ML) a good play in exotics.

6-9-8

Race 6 Juvenile Fillies Turf Large deep field in this one with many possible contenders.  I’m going to with 4 Stopshoppingmaria (8-1 ML), love the connections here with jockey Javier Castellano, trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole.  This horse’s name is in reference to Mike Repole’s wife Maria who has a propensity for shopping.  The horse also has solid form.  Another filly I like here is 12 Dear Lavinia (30-1 ML), with Christophe Lemaire in the irons, fresh off his Melbourne Cup victory.  This horse is already valued at $21 on Betfair, could be a nice opportunity for US on-track pool players.  Of the shorter priced horses in the field I like 14 Somali Lemonade (3-1 ML).

4-12-14

Race 7 Filly and Mare Sprint I am going to hope the big favorite here gets beaten and go with the 2nd choice and 6 Switch (3-1 ML) to beat favorite 3 Turbulent Decent (6-5 ML), in a short priced exacta.  I will go with 11 Her Smile (15-1 ML) and Velazquez/Pletcher for show.

6-3-11

Race 8 Juvenile Fillies Probably the most interesting race of the day with the winner most likely the early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks here in May.  I am going to go with 5 Grace Hall (4-1 ML) over 4 Miss Netta (15-1 ML) with the English invader 1 Questing (20-1 ML) hitting the board on the dirt.  All of these horses are seeing significant support on Betfair.  Obviously there is local bias with Questing, but the breeding here suggests this Brit can do work on the dirt.

5-4-1

Race 9 Filly and Mare Turf Don’t see an American horse factoring in the race and having a hard time distinguishing my top 3.  I am going to go with 6 Announce (9-2 ML) over 2 Stacelita (2-1 ML) over 10 Misty for Me (10-1 ML).  I think 5 Nahrain also could factor and would think these 4 make up the superfecta.

6-2-10-5

Race 10 Ladies’ Classic  I attended the Breeders’ Cup Welcome Party tonight and the most impressive things I heard were about 6 Royal Delta (5-2 ML). You know I like to fade the public, but this wasn’t public, these were respected horsemen and women who were awed by this horse.  That is enough for me, I think the favorite 8 Plum Pretty (2-1 ML) comes in second while I like 1 Miss Match (10-1 ML) for show.

6-8-1

Overall I don’t for see too many big prices as there looks to be a couple of special short priced horses.  I do think money can be made in exotics both vertical and horizontal. Good luck!!!

We have seen some good racing at Pimlico.  Good prices, I think the rest of the day will be good as well.  Prices may come down as there are some big favorites coming and then the Preakness Stakes.  Just want to throw out two possible back wheels (shout out to Schultzie) in Race 9 take in an exacta All over Shared Account (6) put an extra bet with Desert Sage (7) on top.  There is another on in Race 11 take All over Paddy O’Prado (4) with an extra bet on Slews Answer (6) on top.

In the Preakness, Animal Kingdom (5/2 on Betfair) is strongly bet as is Dance City (11-1 on Betfair).   Sway Away was strongly bet in the Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Double and is bet well in head-to-head matchups against Midnight Interlude and Astrology.  Also well bet head to head is Animal Kingdom over Dialed In and Dance City over Shackleford.  I am sticking with my picks, but just some additional information.

The Kentucky Derby (Post time 6:24pm ET). Handicapping this race is just so hard. I am going to try to keep it simple and give my top 4 picks, well 5 actually. Some notes first, Uncle Mo (18) has been scratched due to a GI illness. Hope to see him later on in the 3-year old season. I haven’t been hearing very good things out of Dialed In (4). I have heard these words: lethargic, disinterested, not eating, took a couple of bad missteps, hates the slop. Not what you want to hear about 4-1 favorite. He is loaded with talented and the track and race fit his style, but cannot play him considering all the factors. Total throwout if track is sloppy. Calvin Borel and Twice the Appeal are over bet and anything less than 20-1, but should be more like 30-40 to 1. Another big early line move was Pants On Fire (7) bet from 20-1 Morning line to 8-1 overnight. I think that was a lot of Rosie Napravnik sentiment on Ladies’ Day. I would expect that to do back out big time and don’t think that any of the early speed (Pants On Fire (7), Comma to the Top (6), Decisive Moment (5)) will be able to hold on to what should be fast early fractions. I don’t think Soldat (17) even shows his speed, needs a major reverse in trend to be a contender.

Without further ado the official Chief’s Selections:

Win: Animal Kingdom (16)
Yes, I am taking a 30-1 morning line as the Derby winner. He was 26-1 when I left the track last night and would expect to see him around 20-1 at post time, though it may seem counterintuitive the shorter the better. At least in terms of confidence in this pick, not value. I am hearing excellent reports from such a wide range of sources it is incredible. I love the jockey change to John Velazquez who was without a mount after the scratching of Uncle Mo, replacing injured Robbie Albardo. I think this race sets up perfectly for his style.
Place: Midnight Interlude (15)
Trainer Bob Baffert comes just short of the Oaks-Derby double and another Kentucky Derby. The California contender is much more highly regarded since Santa Anita switched back to the conventional dirt surface. Distance could be a concern and jockey Victor Espinoza has to do his best to stay near the front without getting into a speed duel. Horse seems to be peaking at the right time, not surprising for a Baffert Derby horse.
Show: Mucho Macho Man (13)
Hard to leave this consistent performer out, hit the board in 7 out of 8 starts. All reports are that he is ready for this race and should be very solid.
4th/5th Nehro (19) Archarcharch (1)
Really like both of these horses and really can’t distinguish between the two, but both have difficult post draws. Probably would have put them both up ahead of Mucho Macho Man and probably even with Midnight Interlude with better post draws. This shouldn’t be a huge problem as these horses should be near the back of the field. So I think they could still factor in the Superfecta or Hi-5 (which you should NEVER bet at the Derby, the pool is entirely too small and it is near impossible to hit) Archarcharch draws the dreaded 1 post with jockey Jon Court who at 50 years old (and 29,000+ mounts) will be riding his first derby. Court will need to show a lot of patience. Nehro and Corey Nakatani draw the 19th post with the fear there that he could get could with a wide and extra long trip. Could cost him a place or two.
Chief’s Selection 16-15-13-19-1