Presidential Politics Archives

Jun
2016
30

US Presidential Race Update

I have been remiss in not updating the Betfair market on the US Presidential election. There has been very little movement since my last update earlier this month.

Hillary Clinton 73.8% +3.6%
Donald Trump 22.0% -1.0%
Bernie Sanders 1.6% -1.9%
Joe Biden 1.3% -.5%

Democratic Party 76%/Republican Party 24% DEMS +2.0%

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 95.7% 1.8%
Joe Biden 2.8% +1.0%
Bernie Sanders 1.5% -2.5%

It has been a good month for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. Mrs. Clinton has a firmer grip on the nomination and her Party has added another 2% to make it 76%-24% in favor of the Democrats. She also had good news this week after a House Benghazi Report found no new evidence of wrong doing. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are still hanging on with Biden actually seeing his nomination chances increase, which makes little sense, but is worth noting. There has been a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton’s coughing fits. Could there be a last minute replacement at the Convention with Clinton’s health being the given reason?

Over the past 3 weeks there has been some significant volatility in Donald Trump’s odds. His odds peaked at 25% in the wake of the Orlando nightclub shooting on June 12th. Those gains were quickly lost once Trump opened his mouth. The Donald’s chances dipped to a low of 17.7% on June 21st after just having fired his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Then Trump saw another external event help him. There was the major upset in the “Brexit” vote. Betfair had it 77%-23% going in that the UK would vote to remain in the European Union. This was looked at very favorably for Trump as the supporters for Brexit were similar to Trump supporters: xenophobic and uneducated. You obviously can see my feelings on the subject. To give a more balanced view the Trump/Brexit supporters want the US first and not to beholden to poor treaties, agreements (like with Iran) and trade deals. It does seem like the Brexit vote is a failure of Democracy as the old and uneducated dictated to the young and educated by a 52%-48% margin. Either way Trump’s chances popped 4% (from 18.5% to 22.5%) after the Brexit vote on June 24th and now have settled in to 22% chance at the White House. Another reason for this surge was short covering as I’m sure many of the “punters”/market makers on Betfair lost money being short the UK leaving. Just as Hillary Clinton is ahead in the polls, so was “Stay in the EU”.

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 92.2
Jeb Bush 1.3%
Paul Ryan 1.1%
Field 5.4%

There also has been a lot of movement in Trump’s odds at winning the Republican Nomination. I didn’t even update them last time as they were unchanged from the previous post at 96.6%. However what seemed like a certainty actually saw major doubt. Trump’s low point on June 21st saw his chances at the nomination dip to 84.4%. There was a lot of buzz that the GOP #NeverTrump leaders were making a move to unseat the Billionaire. That seems to be shut down and his odds are back up to 92.2%. Oddly and probably because of shorts in the market Jeb Bush is the 2nd choice. Maybe the GOP has a last minute convention switcheroo? It is so strange that the website that converts Betfair odds into percentage (https://electionbettingodds.com/) for Americans doesn’t even have Bush listed. I will be contacting them via Twitter to rectify. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is the only other Republican with a 1% or better chance at the nomination.

Jun
2016
09

TV Spot on DML: Unfiltered

on Newsmax TV

Sorry this spot was back on May 25th, 2016, but I’m just posting it now.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth and I join Dennis discuss automation and what it will mean for the American economy.

Here is an article on robotics and white color jobs posted on June 5th on The Daily Beast.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/05/robots-are-taking-white-collar-jobs-too.html

Jun
2016
06

US Presidential Race Update

Here is an update of the Betfair market on the US Presidential election ahead of the California Primary tomorrow.

Hillary Clinton 70.2% +7.1%
Donald Trump 23.0% -7.1%
Bernie Sanders 3.5% +.2%
Joe Biden 1.8% -.7%

Democratic Party 74%/Republican Party 26% DEMS +7.0%

Since the last update 10 days ago, Hillary Clinton has seen her chances improve by 7.1% with Donald Trump’s likelihood dropping by that exact amount. In the “Winning Party” market the Democrats have jumped up 7% to 74%, but still the Democratic candidates odds combined are higher than that (75.5%). These past 10 days have produced a huge swing in momentum for Donald Trump. Looking at the chart, Trump “broke out” when his chances exceed 27% which was a “double top“. The old highs were in late February and early May. The Donald saw his chances reach a high of 31.8% in late May and now is down nearly 9% off those highs to 23.0% currently. That is a significant failure and it includes a huge spike in volume. In gambling terms Trump was down to as low as 3.2 or +220 or 2.2-1 or 11-5 he is now back up to a value of 4.35 or +335 or 3.35-1. That is a significant shift and shows that Trump is facing an uphill climb to win the White House. I know these charts are confusing because the X-Axis which is time (date) isn’t labeled.

trumpchartjun6

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 93.9% +.9%
Bernie Sanders 4.0% -.4%
Joe Biden 1.8% -.8%

There has been very little change in Hillary Clinton’s chances at the Democratic nomination. Mrs. Clinton is a 73%-27% chance to win the California Primary tomorrow. There is no quit in Bernie Sanders so win or lose I would expect him to continue his campaign. That is why I am so surprised that Vice President Joe Biden still has so much support. I have realized that there IS NOT an arbitrage opportunity with laying Biden in the odds to win the Presidential election and backing him to win the Democratic nomination. The winner of the nomination will payout after the Democratic Convention certifies a winner the July 25-28th in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Therefore Hillary Clinton could win the nomination, but if something were to happen with her health or scandal/indictment, Joe Biden could be the one to replace her on the ticket. Though I would think the Bernie Sanders supporters would have a hard time swallowing that. It still is a possibility and one that isn’t worth trying to bet won’t happen at miniscule odds.

May
2016
27

US Presidential Race Update

Here is a quick update on the Betfair market for the 2016 Race for the White House.

Hillary Clinton 63.1% -.4%
Donald Trump 30.1% +.2%
Bernie Sanders 3.3% -.2%
Joe Biden 2.5% -.3%

Democratic Party 67%/Republican Party 33% GOP +1.0%

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 93.0% +1.7%
Bernie Sanders 4.4 +.9%
Joe Biden 2.6% -1.6%

There still is significant interest in Vice President Joe Biden winning the 2016 Presidential Election although there isn’t the same support for him to win the Democratic nomination. Nonetheless this is newsworthy as the market believes the Veep could replace Hillary Clinton on the ticket if one of her scandals finally catches up to her. It is hard to believe that Biden would supplant Bernie Sanders, especially considering how well Sanders is doing in head to head polls versus Donald Trump. A month ago we were having this same discussion about Speaker of the House Paul Ryan being the GOP nominee. This is certainly an historic election cycle. The Republicans picked up another percentage point in the head-to-head market though the three Democratic candidate’s odds equal 68.9%.

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 96.6% +1.8%
The Field 3.4% -1.8

Donald Trump has reached the magic 1237 delegate mark and will almost certainly be the Republican nominee. There still is that small chance that between now and the GOP Convention on July 18-21 that Trump does something so stupid that he has to withdraw from the race.

May
2016
25

US Presidential Race Update

Here is a very very long overdue update on the Betfair market on the US Presidential Election. Net change is from a little less than a month ago.

Hillary Clinton 63.5% -10.9%
Donald Trump 29.9% +13.2%
Bernie Sanders 3.5% +1.7%
Joe Biden 2.8% +2.1%

Democratic Party 68%/Republican Party 32% GOP +6.5%

I am sorry I have not written anything about the election as I had to go through all of the stages of grief and now I have finally accepted the fact that these three men or one woman are almost certainly going to be the next President of this country I love. What is most shocking and is just a recent development is the support that current Vice President Joe Biden is getting. He just traded at 25-1 to win the Presidency which equates to a 4% chance to move into the Oval Office! The current market is a very wide 22-1/47-1 with the midpoint producing that 2.8%. He has surged to the second choice vaulting ahead of Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, though it is very fluid.

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 91.3% -3.7%
Joe Biden 4.2% +2.7%
Bernie Sanders 3.5 +1.0%

Actually as I am writing this the markets on the Democrats are flipping and flopping and there is money to made trading it. Either way the news is clearly negative for Hillary Clinton. Check out Election Betting Odds for live updates

bernbiden

The biggest shift in the market and corresponding media story over the past month is how the Democrats are now the Party that is fractured and beyond repair. Initially the Republicans were being accused of thwarting democracy and ignoring the will of the people, but now the script has flipped. The GOP has picked up 6.5% in the “Winning Party” over the past month and Donald Trump has surged as many in the Party that were in the “Never Trump” camp now are reluctantly on board the Trump Train. I am not one of those, but as a #NeverHillary and #NeverTrump American who is a staunch capitalist I’m at a loss of what to do. Either way I need to continue to report the facts and provide updates on what the markets are predicting.

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 94.8% +15.7%
The Field 5.2%

Betfair has the odds of Trump being the GOP nominee at 1.05/1.06, the midpoint converts to that 94.8% chance. No other candidate has a 1% chance or better. The usual suspects of Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and yes even Jeb Bush provide most of the “The Field”. Their is nobody in market willing to bet that the Republican Convention will be contested or brokered so it should be clear sailing for Donald Trump.

Apr
2016
27

US Presidential Race Update

The results went exactly to form in the “Acela Primaries” with Donald Trump sweeping all 5 states and Hillary Clinton winning 4 of 5 as Bernie Sanders took Rhode Island. Here is an update on the Betfair market.

Hillary Clinton 74.4% +1.7%
Donald Trump 17.7% +.9%
Ted Cruz 2.4% -.8%
Bernie Sanders 1.8% -1.0%

Democratic Party 74.5%/Republican Party 25.5% DEMS +.5%

It was an exceeding big night for Donald Trump who blew past “the ceiling” that I and professional pundits thought he had. He received 54%, 57%, 58%, 61% and 64% in the 5 states that voted yesterday. I’m in total shock. I had thought that the combination of John Kasich and Ted Cruz would have been able to get at least half of the votes in these states. It was a terrible night for Senator Cruz who was 3rd in 4 out of the 5 states with his only 2nd place finish coming in Pennsylvania. Governor Kasich was the runner-up in 4 states, but didn’t get the traction I thought he would. I had thought that Donald Trump would struggle in the Northeast with smarter urban populations, but I was very wrong. I am very sad to report that John Kasich odds are now 160-270 in UK terms. That means he is 159-1 if you want to back him or 1-269 if you want to bet against him winning. That equates to a value of just 0.47% at being the next Commander-in-Chief. So now there are just four candidates left that have a 1% or more likelihood of winning the election in November.

clintontrump

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 79.1% +6.4%
Ted Cruz 14.2% -3.8%
John Kasich 1.9% -1.5%

Chance for a Republican Contested Convention (no candidate reaches 1237 delegages) 57%-43% “NO” Flipped 17.0%

Chance for a Republican Brokered Convention (no nominee gets a majority in the first round of voting) 80%-20% “NO” Up 15%

It was such a big night for Trump it is now favored by 57% that he will crack the 1237 delegate mark before the convention. Indiana which is a winner take all state is Trump’s last major hurdle to hit that magic number. He is 70% likely to take the Hoosier State. Ted Cruz is his only competitor and John Kasich has to make it clear to his supporters in Indiana that they need to vote for Cruz. It is now just a 20% chance that the GOP convention goes past a first vote. Just a couple of weeks ago it was looking like the convention in Cleveland was going to be the highest of drama now it most likely will be a coronation of Donald Trump, Republican Nominee for President. Pain shot through my fingers typing that.

Hillary Clinton’s stranglehold is even tighter as she has hit a new high point as nearly a 3 out 4 chance to be the first woman President of the USA. She is 96% to be the Democratic nominee with Bernie Sanders down to just 2.5% and Joe Biden at 1.5%.

Ted Cruz today in what is probably a “Hail Mary” to try to win Indiana has named former Republican Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina as his running mate. I’m not sure what they both will be running for as Donald Trump is running away from Cruz and Kasich for the nomination. Speaking of potential running mates on the Democratic side there has been a clear cut favorite in Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro. Castro is listed first and has been the favorite the entire time as he is the perfect complement to Hillary Clinton. He is young, male, Latino and hasn’t committed any felonies that anyone knows of. Secretary Castro has odds that make him 27% likely to be on the bottom of the Democratic ticket. On the Republican side John Kasich is favored at 14% to be the VP, but that doesn’t make him the favorite to be Trump’s running mate. A Cruz/Kasich deal at the convention is possible with the Ohio Governor on the bottom of the ticket. There isn’t a clear cut running mate for Trump, but that will be a fascinating announcement.

Apr
2016
26

US Presidential Race Update

Here is an update on the Betfair market for the 2016 Race for the White House ahead of the results “Acela Primary Day”. Today votes will be cast along the Northeast corridor in Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland.

Hillary Clinton 72.7% +4.9%
Donald Trump 16.8% +3.8%
Ted Cruz 3.2% -3.0%
Bernie Sanders 2.8% -2.8%
John Kasich 1.1% -1.3%

Democratic Party 74%/Republican Party 26% DEMS +1.5%

It is Hillary Clinton’s election to lose as she has hit an all-time high in her chances at the Presidency and is 95% likely to win the nomination. She is likely to be victorious in all but Rhode Island today as Bernie Sanders is down to just a 4% chance at being the nominee (VP Joe Biden is still at 1%).

acela

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 72.7% +17.1%
Ted Cruz 18.0% -11.2%
John Kasich 3.4% -4.0%
Paul Ryan 1.0% -.2%

Chance for a Republican Contested Convention (no candidate reaches 1237 delegages) 60%-40% “YES” -18.0%

Chance for a Republican Brokered Convention (no nominee gets a majority in the first round of voting) 65%-35% “NO” Up 10%

Donald Trump has regained his grip on the Republican side and is looking at a clean sweep today. It is up to a 40% chance from 22% that he gets to 1237 delegates before the Convention in July. It is also 10% less likely that the GOP will require a second vote to pick their nominee. The Ted Cruz/John Kasich pact isn’t working and the market has responded in kind.

There is not much to add as the depression from this nightmare scenario for the United States is sinking in. Clinton versus Trump is going to happen and Hillary Clinton will win and I think the central part of this country is going to be very very angry.

Apr
2016
20

TV Spot on DML: Unfiltered

on Newsmax TV

I join Dennis along with a pair of economists to discuss the raising of the minimum wage. At the end there is an obligatory question about Donald Trump.

Apr
2016
15

US Presidential Race Update

Sorry for the delay since the last update. I hadn’t seen much movement in the market and without any votes cast, but in the past couple of days there has been some significant action on Betfair ahead of the New York Primary.

Hillary Clinton 67.8% +2.9%
Donald Trump 13.0% +1.4%
Ted Cruz 6.2% +.6%
Bernie Sanders 5.6% -2.2%
John Kasich 2.4% -1.5%

Democratic Party 72.5%/Republican Party 27.5% DEMS +1.0%

The first thing you will notice is that just the 5 candidates that are actually currently running for President have a 1% or better chance at winning the election in November. Paul Ryan made it clear that he is not looking to run and I believe him as does the market. He is a young man and to jump into the race now is not a good political move. He is already 3rd in line to become President as the Speaker of the House and has a bright future. Also finally off the list (for now) is Vice President Joe Biden as it looks like all of the skeletons are out of Hillary Clinton’s closet and she showed last night to have plenty of energy and be in good health. The former Senator from the state of New York, (even though a carpetbagger) Clinton is 90.5% to win the Empire State and 90.5% to win the Democratic nomination (identical 1.10/1.11 markets). Bernie Sanders has just a 9.5% chance to win his neighboring state of New York and 8.5% likely of being the nominee. (Biden still has a 1% chance at the nomination) The Democrats picked up 1% in the “Winning Party” market and are up to 72.5%. That advantage still is probably higher as Clinton plus Sanders equals 73.4% while the GOP trio equals just 21.6%. That means the market gives “the field” a 5% or 20-1 chance which seems right on.

clintontrump

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 55.6% +5.7%
Ted Cruz 29.2% +4.3%
John Kasich 7.4% -3.6%
Paul Ryan 1.2% -5.3%

Chance for a Republican Contested Convention (no candidate reaches 1237 delegages) 78%-22% “YES” +3.0%

Chance for a Republican Brokered Convention (no nominee gets a majority in the first round of voting) 55%-45% “NO” FLIPPED 10%

Donald Trump has had a pretty quiet (by his standards) 10 days and for the most part has stayed out of trouble. The family Town Hall was very good for him as his kids shined. He and Ted Cruz haven’t slung a lot of mud which has been a plus for both candidates. It is good for them as they have seen their individual chances at winning the nomination improve, but haven’t seen much of a pop to win the White House. John Kasich has taken a hit as the market is favoring that either Trump or Cruz win in the first vote. It was 55% likely that it would be a brokered convention, now that number is down to 45%. Trump is a lock to win his home state of New York (though anyone who eats pizza with a knife and fork isn’t a real New Yorker). Nate Silver’s 538.com projects Trump to have 1100 delegates out of the 1237 required. If he is that close he probably will win the nomination and the market is starting to reflect that.

Apr
2016
13

Spot on the BS Show with Bob Sansevere

bsshow

All Presidential election talk as I update the Betfair market.

Brought to you by Liquid Ice Energy Drink!

Starts at the 12 minute mark!

CLICK HERE!!!!!