7- Bodemeister (8-5)
8- Daddy Nose Best (12-1)
11- Cozzetti (30-1)
9- I’ll Have Another (5-2)

I think Bodemeister is clearly the most talented horse in the field and I expect another huge performance. I think Mike Smith will have a much better effort on him and keep him under control. I am going with the Derby “wise guy” horse Daddy Nose Best for second. I don’t think he ever got a good chance to run in the Derby and think he will run a strong race in the much smaller field at Pimlico. Cozzetti is the “new shooter” that I am looking to hit the board and juice up the exotics. I like looking at the head-to-head matchups that the sportsbooks make. Cozzetti is favored in in his two matchups. I think I’ll Have Another will run a strong race but come up just short of hitting the board.

Race 1
2- Atigun (7-5)
5- Politicallycorrect (6-1)
6- Slamit (8-1)

Atigun’s owners were hoping to be in the derby, but they will have to settle with a Derby Day win, clearly the class of the field. I would throw out Politicallycorrect’s last race on synthetic, he has shown solid grass form.

Race 2
7- Speargun (4-1)
2- Big Ring (9-2)
5- Easy Vice (8-1)

Speargun has had by far the most experience and thinks he gets his win here. Big Ring was close first time out, adds Leparoux for this one. Easy Vice gets lasix after hitting the board in his first time out.

Race 3
10- Windsurfer (4-1)
7- Z Dager (4-1)
5- Golden Ticket (3-1)

Strong group here, hard to distinguish between the top 3, I am going with Velazquez/Pletcher on top.

Race 4
10- Crimson China (4-1)
4- Silver Rock (10-1)
5- Vertiformer (8-1)
9- Derby Kitten (5-1)

Love that Velazquez seemingly picked Crimson China to ride. Silver Rock comes off a long layoff, seems set up for a big run. Vertformer is in his 2nd start after a very long layoff, I think he will have a solid run.

Race 5
3- Mile High Magic (9-5)
10- Macho Macho (10-1)
5- Big Blue Nation (6-1)
1- Seven Lively Sins (10-1)

Have to keep riding the Pegram/Baffert/Garcia magic (maybe Blanks and Cossie will be in another winner’s circle photo) with Mile High Magic. Macho Macho has excellent Beyer’s and Asmussen training for the 1st time. Need to stick with the football theme with Big Blue Nation (Velazquez/Pletcher has a win at Churchill). I like Seven Lively Sins as well, but post hurts him.

Race 6
4- Bridgetown (6-5)
2- Great Attack ((8-1)
10- Great Mills (5-1)
7- Speight the Halo (30-1)

Hard not to go with the big fave here, has monster numbers and I will think Pletcher will have him ready off the long layoff. Great Attack has solid Beyer’s as well, think he will return to his solid form after one bad outing. Speight the Halo has a trainer who has brought a few smokies home.

Race 7
6- Amazombie (5-2)
3- Apriority (8-1)
7- Gantry (20-1)

Amazombie, I think is the class of the field has standout numbers, Apriority nearly won this race last year. Gantry has solid numbers and 4 straight wins, even if it is against lesser competition.

Race 8
3- Marketing Mix (5-2)
10- Hungry Island (6-1)
5-Daisy Devine (5-1)

Marketing Mix is just a solid performer and should take this one, Hungry Island has Velazquez who seemingly had a choice. Daisy Devine has won 4 in a row and should definitely factor. Again hard to distinguish between these three, but prefer them to the other shorter priced horses.

Race 9
8- Musical Romance (4-1)
7- Switch (2-1)
6- Groupie Doll (5-2)

Sorry so chalky, but these 3 seem clearly better than the rest. Musical Romance is alternating quality races and his due for big one off the synthetic. I see the same exacta as we saw in November here in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint. Groupie Doll can have blazing performances and think she will have another here, but come up short to the top pair.

Race 10
2- Turralure (5-2)
4- Get Stormy (6-1)
7- Data Link (4-1)
5- Slim Shadey (20-1)

Turralure is a special one and should take home this stacked race with lots of solid contenders. Get Stormy won this race last year and is very consistent. Data Link edged Turallure last time out. Slim Shadey has made improvement each race since coming across the pond to race in America. See another improvement and is a factor in the exotics.

Race 11- The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby
4- Union Rags (9-2)
10- Daddy Nose Best (15-1)
15- Gemologist (6-1)
18- Sabercat (30-1)
11- Alpha (15-1)

Note: If the track is sloppy, Bodemeister and El Padrino have big edges and should probably be played. Sabercat and Daddy Nose Best would be the ones to take out. Follow me on twitter (which updates on the main page as well).

I am nowhere near as confident with these picks as I was last year. There is so much quality at the top of the race I would not be surprised if any what I consider the top 4 contenders (Union Rags, Bodemeister, Gemologist, Dullahan) win impressively with a big effort. Of this group I am most confident in Union Rags. I think he is set up to run a massive race here and is the most talented of the bunch. Bodemeister has the most impressive run of any horse in the race (or probably of any Derby contender in years), but I feel the early pace could be too tough for him and I think there has to be a little bit of a drop off after the Arkansas Derby. The only thing that is scary is if there is a sloppy track, early speed could hold up and Bodemeister could run away with it (on top of his solid Tomlinson numbers). I have to play Gemologist as he is undefeated has such solid performances and think will hit the board, but just will come up a bit short. Dullahan is talented but I don’t think will like the Churchill dirt.

There is a group of 10 (Horse numbers 1, 3, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 18, 19) that I could see winning and wouldn’t be shocked. Of those that stand out are Daddy Nose Best who is this year’s “wise guy” horse and is training really well here at Churchill. He seems to be getting better under Steve Asmussen’s training. Another one to consider is late running Sabercat. Early speed could exhaust the top half of the field and he could charge in and hit the board or possibly win. I like Alpha to round out the High 5 (which you should never play, the pools are never large enough to merit trying to hit a nearly impossible bet, the superfecta it is hard enough. El Padrino has one dominant performance in the slop and has a strong Tomlinson number.

One key to last years pick of Animal Kingdom was the heavy money being bet in the UK on Betfair. There is such incredible information to gleam from a two-sided marketplace (back or lay) as opposed to pari-mutual odds from the biased Churchill crowd (Pants on Fire and Borel last year for example were way over bet, the smart money of betfair laid both those horses big). Well this year I do not have that information as Betfair has suspended wagering on the Kentucky Derby.

Race 12
2- Bet the Power (5-1)
3- Shrill (9-2)
10- Goodtimehadbyall (12-1)

Race 13
5- Parabellum (4-1)
1- Dynamical/Moon Traveler (7-2)
4- Z Camelot (4-1)

Race 1
6-Wine Princess (3-1)
1-Holiday’s Jewel (5-2)
4-Haylie Brae (8-1)

Not much to say here, some trainers stats stood out here especially Mark Casse’s (who is excellent in Maiden’s 2nd start) trainer of Haylie Brae and who gets John Velazquez on the saddle. Wine Princess’ pedigree is exceptional.

Race 2
10-Lord Tarzan (5-2)
1-Awesome Life (4-1)
9- Lockout (6-1)

Madris will be bet down from his 8-1 morning line seems to have a lot of backing in Racing Form and the tout sheets. I trust the line maker here and will stay away. Julien Leparoux has been on 3 different horses in the race, but has chosen Awesome Life.

Race 3
6- Ice Cream Silence (3-1)
4- Young and Lovely (6-1)
5- Queen Teuta (6-1)

Young and Lovely trained by Larry Jones and now with Rosie Napravnik up jumps is a great combination, won’t get 6-1, but like for top 2. I think Ice Cream Silence just a bit better.

Race 4
6- Funny Proposition (6-1)
1- Crespano (9-2)
9- Daddy’s Rose (10-1)

As you can see I am backing trainer Mark Casse today, as I like his filly in this race as well. Crespano seems like a board hitter with the Velazquez/Pletcher connections. Daddy’s Rose has Calvin Borel on board, love him here at Churchill.

Race 5
4- Sassy’s Dream (4-1)
6- Vera Belle (8-1)
5- Zapparation (5-1)

This is another one with the program, form, touts all liking the 10 Dancinginherdreams at 10-1, I am fading her along with the other popular picks Frontside and Bouquet Booth.

Race 6
4- Plum Pretty (4-5)
6- Absinthe Minded (6-1)
1- Afleeting Lady (8-1)

Plum Pretty is the class of the race. Could be a decent back wheel play here (exacta, all over Plum Pretty) if you think one of the long shots will run big. Also could be a good hedge against singling her in vertical exotics.

Race 7
7- Contested (2-1)
4- Xunlei (6-1)
2- Small Kitchen (7-2)

Baffert seems to have Contested in perfect position for a graded stakes win.

Race 8
1- More Than Love (6-1)
3- Stephanie’s Kitten (2-1)
12- Dame Marie (8-1)
13- Welcome Dance (12-1)

Had a hard time distinguishing between these horses. Obviously Stephanie’s Kitten has the best past performances. I like welcome dance with Leparoux aboard, he has been on a bunch on this race too. Box these ponies up.

Race 9
2- Successful Dan (3-1)
1- Nates Mineshaft (5-1)
4- Mucho Macho Man (2-1)

I think Successful Dan is the best of these 3, but tough to distinguish.

Race 10
11- Flashy Dresser (6-1)
14- Howe Great (6-1)
8- Finnegans Wake (20-1)
13- Silver Max (7-2)

This is an exciting race and we should definitely see nice prices on all the exotics. I am following Leparoux again and his owner/trainer Seitz with Flashy Dresser. Howe Great hasn’t lost on turf. Last race out for Finnegans Wake was in a Derby prep, he is more suited for this race and think he will hit the board, but you can’t blame the owner for trying.

Race 11- 138th Running of the Kentucky Oaks
6- Broadway’s Alibi (4-1)
8- Jemima’s Pearl (10-1)
5- Hard Not to Like (20-1)
10- And Why Not (15-1)

Threw out my sentimental pick of Grace Hall (I am a small partner in another horse with owner Mike Dubb), in hopes of doing Dubb a favor. Actually the low Beyer number scares me. I am not a huge Beyer figure fan, I do think it is important for the Derby and this is the “Filly’s Derby”. Broadway’s Alibi has a monster Beyer on her resume and the Velazquez/Pletcher combination is a strong one. Early speed does scare me, but think he can hold on. Really like Bob Baffert’s Jemima’s Pearl, she made huge improvement off his 2nd turf race could see another big pump. Hard Not to Like is well… (sorry), but she never has run on turf. I could see this being a horse that does take to it well, she has strong dirt pedigree and made a nice jump racing on the synthetic. And Why Not for 4th because… (These names are clever)

Race 12
8- That’s Me (5-2)
2- Totally Tucker (5-1)
3- Devine Dispatch (12-1)
5- Dreamy Diva (15-1)

That’s Me should be better in her second start, was off slow, but still almost managed to win. Totally Tucker also was nearly not in this MSW, as she lost by a neck in her first start, Larry Jones should have her right up there again. Both double D’s Devine Dispatch and Dreamy Diva have trainers with good success with 1st time starters.

Good luck!

Unfortunately if you know I analyze games I won’t be picking the Giants to win. I also will be taking the over, along with a bunch of props that follow along those same lines. Here they are. Go G-Men, bring that trophy home.

New England Patriots -3 (Even) over the New York Giants It is astonishing to me just how much support from every element of the public the Giants have in this game. I know I am in New York and their is a lot of local bias, but so much of the national media is in support of the Giants. The bet percentages are only 60-40 in favor of the underdog, but that is a significant about considering how big the Super Bowl is bet. The line has trickled in a bit from -3 to -3 even money, -120 if you take the Giants +3. I do think that casinos and sportsbooks are going to be rooting very heavily for the Pats. It also surprises me how many people think the Giants should be favored in this game and would take the Giants if the line were pick ‘em. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady with two weeks to prepare against a defense that has shown major vulnerabilities is very scary. The Patriots having lost earlier this year to the Giants and in Super Bowl 42 I think makes them even more dangerous. Tom Brady coming off a subpar game last week and motivated by the Giants defense talking all week also does not bode well either. As for the Rob Gronkowski injury, I think he will play and be somewhat effective, but mostly as a decoy. I think that Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch will all have big games attacking the middle of the Giants defense with a short quick passing game designed to neutralize the Giants pass rush. I think that the Patriots will also spread the field and attack that same soft middle using their running backs with draws and screens. I also think that there will be some creativity in the red zone that will result in touchdowns for the Pats and not field goals. On the other side of the ball I expect the Giants to move the ball well and score too, expect some turnovers. The Giants haven’t been turning the ball over, but again this where I think Bill Belichick excels. With two weeks to prepare I fear him using coverages that will confuse Eli Manning and force a mistake or two. I also think that the Patriots have an advantage in the special teams as well.

Giants/Patriots Over 54 Again fading the public here, who actually is backing the under. Not usual to see that especially in a Super Bowl where the public usually likes taking overs. When you here all of those media score prediction almost none of them have the winner breaking 30 points. I think there is a chance that both teams exceed 30 points. I think both teams have excellent offenses and weaker defenses. As well as the Giants defense has been playing I think the Pats will pick them apart. In 2008 both teams moved the ball well, but there were no big plays. I would expect to see both teams make big plays down field with the passing game. I think both teams will be efficient in the read zone and I think that there will be some turnovers creating points and short fields. The total has come down from 56 to 54 which isn’t the best sign, but still the number is “high” for most of the square bettors.

As for prop bets, I have a few general thoughts. First it seems the Giants will have the ball first. When the Giants win the coin toss they usually take the ball. They took it 30 times in row until they didn’t in week 17 and then again last week in NFC championship game. If the Pats win the coin toss they almost certainly will defer. That could be useful information in some props (Giants to score first, Giants first in red zone, etc.). I also like the over and a lot of the over props: Brady’s passing, Welker and Herndandez receiving. I think taking the under in the Gronkowski props are a good play as well with him hurting and a lot of concerns of his second half play. Here are some other plays.

New York Giants Score First -115 I think the Giants will get the ball and have a successful first drive with their script and at least pick up a field goal. Another good bet is team to score first loses at +140.

Tom Brady 20-1 and Eli Manning 25-1 to score the first TD of the game I always like taking the QBs to score the first touchdown in big games. I think that they trust themselves more than any of their teammates to score such an important TD in an important game. Tom Brady is more likely being a QB sneak master.

Aaron Hernandez longest reception over 19.5 yards I like all of the overs in Hernandez, but this one especially. I see him making a few big plays down the field with this speed and the weak Giants defensive middle.

Wes Welker Over Recpetions 7 I think with the Gronkowski injury Wes Welker becomes the main target for Tom Brady and he will have a lot of short receptions that will move the chains for the Pats.

Victor Cruz longest reception Under 28 yards I think the Patriots defense will not allow Victor Cruz to break any long plays. I think he has a decent game but most of his stuff comes short.

Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.

Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.

Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.