Unfortunately if you know I analyze games I won’t be picking the Giants to win. I also will be taking the over, along with a bunch of props that follow along those same lines. Here they are. Go G-Men, bring that trophy home.

New England Patriots -3 (Even) over the New York Giants It is astonishing to me just how much support from every element of the public the Giants have in this game. I know I am in New York and their is a lot of local bias, but so much of the national media is in support of the Giants. The bet percentages are only 60-40 in favor of the underdog, but that is a significant about considering how big the Super Bowl is bet. The line has trickled in a bit from -3 to -3 even money, -120 if you take the Giants +3. I do think that casinos and sportsbooks are going to be rooting very heavily for the Pats. It also surprises me how many people think the Giants should be favored in this game and would take the Giants if the line were pick ‘em. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady with two weeks to prepare against a defense that has shown major vulnerabilities is very scary. The Patriots having lost earlier this year to the Giants and in Super Bowl 42 I think makes them even more dangerous. Tom Brady coming off a subpar game last week and motivated by the Giants defense talking all week also does not bode well either. As for the Rob Gronkowski injury, I think he will play and be somewhat effective, but mostly as a decoy. I think that Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch will all have big games attacking the middle of the Giants defense with a short quick passing game designed to neutralize the Giants pass rush. I think that the Patriots will also spread the field and attack that same soft middle using their running backs with draws and screens. I also think that there will be some creativity in the red zone that will result in touchdowns for the Pats and not field goals. On the other side of the ball I expect the Giants to move the ball well and score too, expect some turnovers. The Giants haven’t been turning the ball over, but again this where I think Bill Belichick excels. With two weeks to prepare I fear him using coverages that will confuse Eli Manning and force a mistake or two. I also think that the Patriots have an advantage in the special teams as well.

Giants/Patriots Over 54 Again fading the public here, who actually is backing the under. Not usual to see that especially in a Super Bowl where the public usually likes taking overs. When you here all of those media score prediction almost none of them have the winner breaking 30 points. I think there is a chance that both teams exceed 30 points. I think both teams have excellent offenses and weaker defenses. As well as the Giants defense has been playing I think the Pats will pick them apart. In 2008 both teams moved the ball well, but there were no big plays. I would expect to see both teams make big plays down field with the passing game. I think both teams will be efficient in the read zone and I think that there will be some turnovers creating points and short fields. The total has come down from 56 to 54 which isn’t the best sign, but still the number is “high” for most of the square bettors.

As for prop bets, I have a few general thoughts. First it seems the Giants will have the ball first. When the Giants win the coin toss they usually take the ball. They took it 30 times in row until they didn’t in week 17 and then again last week in NFC championship game. If the Pats win the coin toss they almost certainly will defer. That could be useful information in some props (Giants to score first, Giants first in red zone, etc.). I also like the over and a lot of the over props: Brady’s passing, Welker and Herndandez receiving. I think taking the under in the Gronkowski props are a good play as well with him hurting and a lot of concerns of his second half play. Here are some other plays.

New York Giants Score First -115 I think the Giants will get the ball and have a successful first drive with their script and at least pick up a field goal. Another good bet is team to score first loses at +140.

Tom Brady 20-1 and Eli Manning 25-1 to score the first TD of the game I always like taking the QBs to score the first touchdown in big games. I think that they trust themselves more than any of their teammates to score such an important TD in an important game. Tom Brady is more likely being a QB sneak master.

Aaron Hernandez longest reception over 19.5 yards I like all of the overs in Hernandez, but this one especially. I see him making a few big plays down the field with this speed and the weak Giants defensive middle.

Wes Welker Over Recpetions 7 I think with the Gronkowski injury Wes Welker becomes the main target for Tom Brady and he will have a lot of short receptions that will move the chains for the Pats.

Victor Cruz longest reception Under 28 yards I think the Patriots defense will not allow Victor Cruz to break any long plays. I think he has a decent game but most of his stuff comes short.

Baltimore Ravens +7 over the New England Patriots This is a tough one, as I think the Patriots will find a way to win the game and I never like taking underdogs that I don’t think will win outright. However, I expect a close game that should go right down to the wire with Tom Brady giving a slight edge to the Pats, but I will take the Ravens and the 7 points. Two-thirds of the public are on the Pats here, while the line hasn’t moved off 7 after opening 6.5 then going to 7.5 before settling at 7. I think Ravens will be able to the move the ball and score with the Patriots as the Pats defense is very porous. I expect Ray Rice to have a big game after a quiet outing last week against a very good Texans defense.

Ravens/Patriots over 50 I like the over/under here much more than I like the side. Total opened up 48 and has gone up to 50 yet the public is split in half. Public is usually around 60% on the over, so this is showing that smart money is moving up this O/U. The weather conditions should be optimal for scoring in Foxboro. A bit cold obviously, but little wind and lots of sunshine. As good as the Ravens defense is, no team can stop that Pats offense right now. The Ravens defense didn’t look all that good against the Texans and were lucky they were facing a rookie QB. On the other side of the ball I expect the Ravens to have no problem scoring as I think Joe Flacco will have an excellent game to complement the rushing attack.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over the New York Giants I unfortunately (as a Giants fan) like this pick quite a bit as I think the Niners have been underrated all year and I’m surprised the public is still on the Giants even with this small line. I think the public is underestimating the home field advantage here (it was really loud last week at the ’stick against Saints) and all of the Giants travel. The weather will also help the 49ers who have the better run game, offensive line and defense, especially rush defense. They are expecting a near monsoon, with rain and high winds. As great as Eli Manning has been all year, I think he has a very difficult time with the weather, his illness this week and the San Fran defense, especially the pass rush and the Smith “brothers” (Justin and Aldon) as bookends. 65% of the public action is on the Giants yet the line has barely moved from 2.5 to 2.

Giants/49ers Under 41.5 Total opened 44 and has dropped with the weather reports. The public either doesn’t trust the weathermen (I have been burned in the past with changing weather) or thinks that it won’t be a big enough factor to keep this score low as 65% are still on the over. I do fear sometimes bad weather can lead to mistakes, short fields and defensive or special teams TDs, but I love going under with high winds. Neither quarterback throws a tight spiral which will make down field passing difficult allowing defenses to key on the run making for lots of punts and few touchdowns.

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