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David Alcaro: The CHieF http://thechiefsports.com Thu, 20 Jul 2017 04:11:30 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.18 US Presidential Race Update http://thechiefsports.com/2016/11/us-presidential-race-update-41/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/11/us-presidential-race-update-41/#comments Thu, 24 Nov 2016 00:55:47 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6920 Hillary Clinton 70.2% +7.1%
Donald Trump 23.0% -7.1%
Bernie Sanders 3.5% +.2%
Joe Biden 1.8% -.7%

Democratic Party 74%/Republican Party 26% DEMS +7.0%

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 93.9% +.9%
Bernie Sanders 4.0% -.4%
Joe Biden 1.8% -.8%

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Pick for MNF http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/pick-for-mnf-116/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/pick-for-mnf-116/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2016 20:13:14 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=7038 Not a good day for the picks going 2-3 and losing my best bet.  Very disappointed as the late line moves only confirmed the Jacksonville Jaguars as they went out -2 from -1.5 with 75% of spread bets on the Oakland Raiders.  The Tennessee Titans were 4-point favorites (3.5 on Saturday) with 52% of spread bets on the Indianapolis Colts.  The most confounding of all are the New England Patriots who again cover as massive public favorites and yet again the line doesn’t move.  The Pats were -7 and didn’t budge in the face of 82% of the spread bets.  Since Tom Brady has returned the Pats have seen 82%, 76% and 82% of spread bets and have covered each of those games.  Though yesterday’s game was the toughest to swallow as the Steelers moved the ball just as well as New England, but couldn’t execute in the red zone while the Pats did.  The pool picks did much better going 5-2-1 with the Arizona Cardinals -1 a tough beat in the 6-6 tie against the Seattle Seahawks last night.

Tonight’s game is the weakest of suggestions.

Denver Broncos -7.5 over the Houston Texans  The line opened up 6, but quickly went out to 7 and as far out as 9/9.5 and now back into 7.5 and I would think might come in to 7.  It does seem surprisingly high considering the Texans are coming off a comeback win on primetime and the Broncos are off two bad losses.  62% of spread, 58% of moneyline and 72% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Broncos.  As 7.5-point favorites they are prime to be put in a 2-side teaser taking them down to -1.5 and then moving the total to take under 46.5 or over 34.5 (the latter being the more popular one).  I really should be taking the Texans, especially if the line comes in as this can’t be that “fishy” a line if the bets are coming in on the Broncos at this current rate.  There is not much else to go on, but I’ll go with my gut and take the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler will be returning to Denver and I’m sure they know his weaknesses.  That is very dangerous with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, Jr. lurking in the Broncos secondary.  As for the total it opened up 41.5 and is down to 40 with bets split right down the middle.  That would have me leaning towards the under, but weather should be fine and there is plenty of offensive talent on the field.

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Picks for NFL Week 7 http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/picks-for-nfl-week-7-9/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/picks-for-nfl-week-7-9/#comments Sat, 22 Oct 2016 18:08:36 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=7032 It didn’t start well with a loss on Thursday night as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense got right against the Chicago Bears.  I have 5 official selections and the rest of the games are all pool picks that I will list in rotation order.

Official Selections (In order of strength of opinion):

Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 over the Oakland Raiders  The best bet week is a huge public fade as 78% of spread, 74% of moneyline and 85% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Raiders.  The line has moved slightly towards the Jaguars as it opened up 1 and is now at 1.5.  This is a 10am body clock start for the west coast Raiders.

New York Jets -2 over the Baltimore Ravens  Very nice market divergence as 74%/76%/85% of spread/moneyline/combo bets are on the Ravens (really betting against the Jets and QB Geno Smith), yet this line has gone from pick’em to Jets by 2.  I think the quarterback switch for the Jets to Smith from Ryan Fitzpatrick will give New York a one week spark.  There a lot of injuries to the Baltimore defense and the wind will we require Smith to use his legs.  I don’t think the Ravens will have much success against the Jets defense in the high winds as it is their secondary where they are weak.  Jets get linebacker David Harris back whose loss was evident on Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 over the Indianapolis Colts  Line has gone from 2 to 3.5, but it isn’t public driven.  Injuries seem like a bit of the factor, but this move into “fishy” territory feels like “wise guys”.  Not much else to go on, but the market.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 over the Minnesota Vikings  I don’t like going against teams that are off bye weeks, like the Vikings, but I think the week off could slow down their momentum.  The public loves the purple with 76% of spread, 58% of moneline and 88% of multi bets on Minnesota.  The line has edged out from 2.5 to 3 which I don’t like to see, but happy to get that half-point.  It should be a low-scoring game as high winds are expected in Philly.  This is a tough bet to make as the Vikings are on a great run of winning against the spread.  The Eagles know QB Sam Bradford’s weaknesses and the Philly crowd should make him feel very uncomfortable in the “City of Brotherly Love”.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over the New England Patriots  Another very very hard bet and a massive public fade as 88%/77%/87% of SPD/ML/PRLY bets are on the popular Pats and against Pittsburgh QB Landry Jones.  Ben Roethlisberger is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  Jones doesn’t excite me, but the Steelers are creative and they have an excellent running back and a special wide receiver in Antonio Brown.  New England struggles on grass going just 5-12 against the spread in the last 17 games on natural stuff.  The Heinz Stadium field is usually a mess which should frustrate the Pats and favor the home squad.

Pool Picks (In rotation order):

New York Giants -2.5 over the Los Angeles Rams  Could go either way with this game, the spread hasn’t moved as it is between 2.5 and 3 and bets are split.  I will go the closer team in the Giants as Los Angeles has a really long trip to London.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 over the New Orleans Saints  Andy Reid extended his record to 16-2 after bye weeks last week and I think he keeps the roll going.  Bets are split and line is in a half-point, nothing interesting in the market.  Though I’m not feeling very confident and weather should be perfect for the dome Saints.  Bad feeling this will be a Chiefs win, but no cover.

Detroit Lions -1 over the Washington Redskins  The Redskins are seeing a little more of the action with the line not having moved at all.  I will side with the home team, but there really is nothing to go one with this game.

Cleveland Browns +10 over the Cincinnati Bengals  The Browns have been competitive and I think they try not to embarrass the city as Indians and Cavaliers have made them so proud.  I think Cleveland keeps it close against the rival Bengals, who are struggling team.  The line is unchanged with the Cincy seeing more of the action.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 over the Buffalo Bills  Line hasn’t moved with the red hot Bills seeing a small edge in wagers.  I will go with the home team with some heat and humidity in the forecast.  It’s not as last week, but the Bills are shorthanded and their star running back LeSean McCoy doubtful.

San Diego Chargers +6 over the Atlanta Falcons  The market is providing nothing as the line is unchanged and bets are split.  I’ll with the Chargers who are good on the road against the Falcons who have struggled recently against the spread at home.  This is a 4pm ET time game which should make the Chargers feel comfortable.  The Falcons have to be exhausted after trips to Denver and Seattle.  The week after playing the Seahawks is usually very tough for teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over the San Francisco 49ers  I am going against the market here Tampa Bay is seeing a little bit more action, yet the line has moved from Bucs by 2.5 to Niners by 1.  I really should be tipping the Niners, but I feel the Bucs off their bye week will take advantage of the poor Niners defense.

Arizona Cardinals -1 over the Seattle Seahawks  This line opened up Cards by 2.5, but the move in seems publicly driven.  I feel that Arizona has got the ship righted and should win this huge rivalry game at home.  Though as the odds suggest this should be a battle.

 

 

 

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Pick for TNF http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/pick-for-tnf-106/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/10/pick-for-tnf-106/#comments Thu, 20 Oct 2016 20:43:40 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=7028 I promised on Twitter to make picks this week and I will start off with a pretty strong suggestion for Thursday night.

Chicago Bears +7.5 over the Green Bay Packers  The line opened up 9 and is into 7.5 with 68% of spread, 69% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets on the Packers.  The line move in is mainly due to the injuries on the Packers side.  They are without their top two running backs and are extremely thin in the secondary.  The injury news on the Bears side is a little bit better, but as is usual in Thursday night games Chicago will be missing some key players.  The fact that Jay Cutler will be out again is probably a plus as Brian Hoyer isn’t as mistake prone.  Trends are terrible here for the Bears as the Packers usually are great against the spread at home and in October while the Bears have a terrible ATS run in the division.  The favorite is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups in this series (which is also Green Bay’s record).  This is a different Green Bay Packers team and very different looking Aaron Rodgers.  He doesn’t have the same confidence and is making terrible mistakes turning over the football.  The fact he is going to be without running backs he is comfortable with makes me think tonight might not be the night he gets right.  I rarely like road teams on Thursday night’s but this is such a short trip for the Bears.  As for the total it is down from 47 to 46/46.5 with 54% of the bets on the over.  The market isn’t indicating anything with trends leaning towards the under.  I would stay away my instinct would be to take the under, but the Packers lacking a running game while having a good rush defense and poor pass defense means both teams will be looking to throw the ball.

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Pick for MNF http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/pick-for-mnf-114/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/pick-for-mnf-114/#comments Mon, 19 Sep 2016 19:57:24 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6997 I still am not sure about the future of the website.  I am going to at least finish up Week 2 with my 5th official selection which will determine whether the week is positive or negative (2-2).

Chicago Bears -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles

This line opened  up at 1 and it is out to 3 with 53% of spread, 62% of moneyline and 59% of parlay and teaser bets on the Eagles.  It will be the 2nd career start for Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz.  He looked good in his first start, but that was at home against the lowly Cleveland Browns.  It won’t be as easy in Soldier Field for the Bears home opener at night.

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Picks for NFL Week 2 http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-nfl-week-2-9/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-nfl-week-2-9/#comments Sun, 18 Sep 2016 13:02:00 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6992 I don’t know if I will be making picks after this week.  I have picks for today, but with little explanation.

Official Selections (In order of opinion strength):

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 over the Green Bay Packers  Today’s best bet as linover e is in from 2.5 to 1.5 with 80% of bets on the Packers.  It is the first game at U.S. Bank Stadium.  Sam Bradford will be getting the start for the Vikings at QB.

Washington Redskins -3 over the Dallas Cowboys  Line edging out with public on the underdog.

Los Angeles Rams +6 over the Seattle Seahawks  Line is in a half-point with 3/4ers of the bets on Seattle.  First NFL game in Los Angeles since 1994.

New York Giants -4 over the New Orleans Saints  Bets split with line out from 3.5 to 4.  Looked better last night when Giants were 5-point favorites.

 

Clear Cut Pool Picks (In order of opinion strength):  

Denver Broncos -6 over the Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions -6 over the Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans -1 over the Kansas City Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 over the Arizona Cardinals

 

Coin Toss Pool Pick (In rotation order):  

Miami Dolphins +6.5 over the New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns +5 over the Baltimore Ravens 

Cincinnati Bengals +3 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers -13 over the San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta Falcons +4 over the Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers +3 over the Jacksonville Jaguars

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Pick for TNF http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/pick-for-tnf-104/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/pick-for-tnf-104/#comments Thu, 15 Sep 2016 20:03:38 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6986 Tonight’s pick is just a suggestion and a weak one at that.

Buffalo Bills -1 over the New York Jets  This is a straight public fade as 74% of spread, 75% of moneyline and 77% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Jets.  The point spread has moved accordingly as it opened up at 2.5 and is into 1 with many books having it at pick’em.  Both teams have injury concerns as will always be the case on these awful Thursday night games.  The Jets have important defensive players banged up and the Bills have a lot of question marks and a suspension on their offense.  The Bills have won 5 straight and 6 of 7 in this series both outright and against the spread.  Not much more to say on this game as it truly is a tossup.  I do prefer the home team on Thursday’s although homeys are just around 50% on these TNF games.  As for the total it opened up at 42.5 and is down to 40.5 with 72% of the bets on the over.  That is really a big move in contrary with the public and it seems like the sharps are taking on the squares.  I don’t understand why this total has dropped so much as SportsInsights sportsbooks are reporting that 86% of the money bet is on the over.  The weather should be perfect and the injuries seem like a wash as they are to Bills offensive players and Jets defensive players.  The last 3 matchups have been unders, but just barely 39, 39 and 41 points were scored with totals of 41, 42 and 42.  The market is telling you to take the under, but the value was getting it at 42.5, 42 and 41.5.

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Picks for MNF Week 1 http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-mnf-week-1/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-mnf-week-1/#comments Mon, 12 Sep 2016 18:20:59 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6982 Just the first of the two Monday Night Football games will be an official selection.  There is a high level of confidence in the pick and the in the second game the “pool pick” is clear cut.

Washington Redskins +2 over the Pittsburgh Steelers  This spread has come in a huge point from when I first previewed the game Friday.  It is not surprising and it’s not the public as 71% of spread and 74% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Steelers.  52% of the moneyline bets are on the Steelers as well, but with this new line, I would expect that to flip.  The Redskins are getting no respect by the squares, but the sharps love the defending NFC Champions.  Washington added superstar cornerback Josh Norman who was instrumental in the Carolina Panthers 15-1 record last year.  The Steelers are without star running back Le’Veon Bell for 3 games with suspension.  They also have a new tight end and will be without number two wide receiver Markus Wheaton.  This is after losing big play receiver Martavis Bryant for the season with a suspension.  The Redskins are expecting their number one running back Matt Jones will play as the injury report is very lopsided in Washington’s favor.  This pick would rank second in strength of opinion for the week.  As for the total , the under is also looking good as the total has dropped from 50 to 49 with some 48.5’s popping up with 70% of the bets on the over.  Along with the lack of weapons the Steelers offense everything is pointing to the under except the weather, which should be absolutely perfect.

San Francisco 49ers +3 over the Los Angeles Rams  I thought the Niners could have been an official selection, but with this line pushing towards 3 the smart money doesn’t seem to be on board.  In almost a mirror image of the early game 70% of spread and 71% of combination bets are on Los Angeles (I had already typed St. Louis) with 54% of the moneyline bets on the Niners.  The big difference is this line is moving out while the Steelers/Skins line is moving in.  This simply could be due to the fact there was positive injury news for the Redskins while the 49ers haven’t received the same.  San Fran is definitely the more banged up side which is another reason this is just a suggestion.  The 49ers opened up last season with a dominant win at home on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings.  After San Fran won that opener 20-3, they went 4-11 the rest of the season while the Vikings went 11-4.  New 49ers head coach Chip Kelly won his debut with the Philadelphia Eagles in a division game back in 2013.  The total is up a half-point from Friday to 43 with 68% of the bets on the under.  I would lean towards the over as Kelly’s frantic fast paced offense should lead to points.  Chip Kelly’s Eagles also were able to produce a lot of points from the special teams and defense and I would expect similar results in San Francisco.   There will be some wind to start the game, but the weather shouldn’t be a factor at all.

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Picks for NFL Week 1 http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-nfl-week-1-9/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/picks-for-nfl-week-1-9/#comments Sun, 11 Sep 2016 01:04:03 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6976 I only have 3 official selections, but will add at least one if not two more on Monday night.  I do have the one “best bet” that was teased yesterday.  The other 10 games tomorrow are broken up with 4 “clear cut” pool picks and 6 “coin toss” pool picks.  Good luck!

Official Selections (In order of opinion strength):

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 over the Green Bay Packers  The point spread has come in a half-point in the last 24 hours, yet still 80% of the spread bets are on the Packers.  This scenario is exactly what I’m looking for in a game and for all the reasons I mentioned in the preview this was easily the best bet of the week.  I think the Jaguars win this game outright.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over the Buffalo Bills  At just a couple hours before midnight this spread is Ravens -3 (-125 or 1.80).  By morning when most of you read this I expect Baltimore to be 3.5-point favorites.  I would take them at this handicap as I think they will have an easy win at home to open the season.  I think this is a smart money piggyback.

Detroit Lions +3 over the Indianapolis Colts  This is another pick where I believe I am joining the sharps.  Even with Andrew Luck back at quarterback for the Colts who has a great career against the spread record, his team isn’t nearly as talented as Detroit.

Clear Cut Pool Picks (In order of opinion strength):  

Chicago Bears +4.5 over the Houston Texans  This is the big line move in the last 24 hours as the Texans were 6-point favorites last night.  I knew I was going to be on the Bears because of the public fade, but this line move solidified it.  I still am very concerned with the injuries to Chicago.  The Texans are starting an all new backfield with Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, that should be a boost this season, but they may be a learning curve.

Dallas Cowboys Pick’em over the New York Giants  A pretty strong public fade as the Giants are seeing a lot more of the action on all bet types.  There was a lot of turnover on the G-Men roster and they didn’t gel in the preseason.  The Cowboys still have a top offensive line and should be able to run the ball with rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott.

Tennessee Titans +2.5 over the Minnesota Vikings  Currently you won’t have to pay juice with Tennessee +2.5.  I would take the +3 at (-115 or 1.87) if possible.  I like small home dogs and I think the Titans will be improved under the leadership of 2nd year QB Marcus Mariota.  The addition veteran running back DeMarco Murray gives Mariota another security blanket to go along with tight end Delanie Walker.

Oakland Raiders +2 over the New Orleans Saints  As I stated in the preview this pick is not at all based on any market considerations, but just my opinion that the Raiders are the better team.  I think they are faster and will benefit from playing on the turf in the dome.  I also believe the Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Coin Toss Pool Pick (In rotation order):  

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Even though I think this line is fishy, I’m going with the host Falcons.  I think these are dead even teams and I’ll take a win if the home team wins by a field goal when you would only expect a push.

Cleveland Browns +3.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles  This is a true toss up and I figure I should get used to supporting the Browns as I figure I will on them often this year.  I would be surprised to see Carson Wentz go from North Dakota State to the NFL and not have a lot of growing pains.

New York Jets +2 over the Cincinnati Bengals  The Jets have such a difficult schedule to start the season that this is actually one of the easy games.  They really need to win this opener and I think they get it done against a shorthanded Bengals squad.  This is another chance to take a small home dog.

San Diego Chargers +6.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs  A true “coin toss” pick and my coin is biased to take underdogs.  That is especially the case getting nearly a touchdown in a division game.  If I had to make a wager in this game it would be on the over 44.5.

Seattle Seahawks -10.5 over the Miami Dolphins  The one place where I never mind laying big numbers is with the Seahawks at home.  They are 61-40 (60.4%) against the spread in their last 101 regular season home games.  When laying 10 or more points they are 15-9 (62.5%) ATS.  The rest of the NFL is 155-181 (46.1%) ATS since SportsInsights BetLabs has data (2003 sesaon).  These team couldn’t be further apart in geography and there is a very good chance that the score line has a similarly large gap.

Arizona Cardinals -7 over the New England Patriots  In what many are thinking could be a Super Bowl 51 preview the Patriots will be playing extremely shorthanded.  QB Tom Brady and LB Rob Ninkovinch are suspended and now tight end Rob Gronkowski is out.  I don’t see how the Patriots can compete with one of the best the NFL has to offer and pretty much full strength.  The fact that 71% of the spread bets are on the favorite will not allow me to make this any more than a pool pick.

 

 

 

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NFL Week 1 Expected Points http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/nfl-week-1-expected-points/ http://thechiefsports.com/2016/09/nfl-week-1-expected-points/#comments Sat, 10 Sep 2016 18:36:16 +0000 http://thechiefsports.com/?p=6970 Team Opponent EPS SEA Seahawks MIA Dolphins 27.4 IND Colts DET Lions 27.1 NO Saints OAK Raiders 26.8 GB Pakcers JAX Jaguars 26.4 PIT Steelers WAS Redskins 26.4 ARI Cardinals NE Patriots 26.0 KC Chiefs SD Chargers 25.6 ATL Falcons TB Buccaneers 25.3 OAK Raiders NO Saints 25.0 HOU Texans CHI Bears 24.6 DET Lions IND Colts 23.9 BAL Ravens BUF Bills 23.8 WAS Redskins PIT Steelers 23.4 DAL Cowboys NY Giants 23.0 NY Giants DAL Cowboys 23.0 TB Buccaneers ATL Falcons 22.8 LA Rams SF 49ers 22.5 PHI Eagles CLE Browns 22.1 CIN Bengals NY Jets 22.1 JAX Jaguars GB Pakcers 21.6 MIN Vikings TEN Titans 21.5 BUF Bills BAL Ravens 20.5 SF 49ers LA Rams 20.0 NY Jets CIN Bengals 19.6 SD Chargers KC Chiefs 19.1 CHI Bears HOU Texans 19.1 NE Patriots ARI Cardinals 19.0 CLE Browns PHI Eagles 18.9 TEN Titans MIN Vikings 18.8 MIA Dolphins SEA Seahawks 17.1

 

As the only favorite over a touchdown in Week 1 the Seattle Seahawks are expected to score the most points this week and allow the least.

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