David Alcaro: The CHieF

A bit of a tough day yesterday, couldn’t get Stopshoppingmaria to hold up and Grace Hall came up short and a couple of scratches made it a tough day, but not a total disaster. Hopefully will have a better day today. I am not going to bother with the first two races and jump right into the Breeders’ Cup races.

Race 3 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Interesting race to start the festivities. I am going to go with 1 Birdrun (7-2 ML) to win the opener, I like the breeding here and the connections. For place I am going with 9 Cease (6-1 ML) followed by 11 A.U. Miner (3-1 ML). I can’t support the Europeans, who are comfortable with the distance, but not with the dirt.

1-9-11

Race 4 Juvenile Turf Going to avoid the horses starting in the outside post positions. They had problems yesterday on the turf. So I am going with 4 Farraaj (15-1 ML), this horse has been bet heavy on betfair so don’t expect even double digit odds, but think it will win. To fill out the trifecta I am going to take 7 Caspar Netscher (6-1 ML) and 3 Shkspeare Shaliyah (15-1 ML), the only American horse here that I think will factor. I will throw in 5 Wrote (12-1 ML) to round out the superfecta.

4-7-3-5

Race 5 Sprint Going to go with my favorite jockey here John Velazquez who seems to have jumped on 6 Freeze Frame (10-1 ML) to win over 2 Giant Ryan (8-1 ML) and 1 Euroears (4-1 ML). All 3 of these horse ran together their last time out and think they make up the triple.

6-2-1

Race 6 Turf Sprint Again I am going to stay away from the horse starting from the outside and going to go with 8 Regally Ready (3-1 ML) to repeat over long shot 2 Holiday for Kitten (30-1 ML) and 7 Hoofit (15-1 ML). I’ll fill out the super with 10 Havelock (9-2 ML).

8-2-7-10

Race 7 Dirt Mile Probably my best bet of the day here with 5 Wilburn (4-1 ML) who will most likely go off a bit cheaper. Trainer Steve Asmussen has his rabbit in the race which will be a huge help in defeating 1 The Factor (7-2 ML) will hold on for 2nd and am going with a bomb for show in 4 Tres Borrachos (30-1 ML)

5-1-4

Race 8 Turf This is the easiest race to handicap as I am going to ignore the American horses and will narrow myself to the 5 Euros and narrow by one more and go with 4 Euro breds. Now the prices won’t be good so order here is key. I am going with 7 Sea Moon (4-1 ML) over 2 Sarafina (5-2 ML) over 9 Midday (4-1 ML) on top of 1 St Nicholas Abbey (9-2 ML).

7-2-9-1

Race 9 Juvenile I am going to go with the upset here and 9 Alpha (15-1 ML) to avenge his loss in the Champagne to beat 10 Union Rags (2-1 ML) with 5 Hansen (10-1 ML) and 4 Drill (8-1) filling out the top 4.

9-10-5-4

Race 10 Mile aka (the Goldikova race) Going to go up with another upset here and all Euros and 11 Strong Suit (10-1 ML). He is bet down heavy on betfair and could be good value here in the states who will be over betting 1 Goldikova (7-5 ML) who I think will get 2nd. I like 8 Byword (12-1 ML) for show and 2 Zoffany (20-1 ML) for 4th.

11-1-8-2

Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Classic Very tough race to handicap and I’m going to throw out the favorite because I don’t think Uncle Mo can make the distance and see no value. I am going to go with my New York bias and 2 Flat Out (6-1 ML) to beat another success in New York, Belmont Stakes winner 4 Ruler On Ice (30-1 ML) in what will be a very close race. I think the filly 10 Havre De Grace (3-1 ML) hits the board with 13 To Honor And Serve (12-1 ML) rounding out a juicy superfecta.

2-4-10-13