Sep
2016
10

NFL Week 1 Preview

Here is a preview of all of the opening week’s matchups. The bet percentage numbers are from Sports Insights and trends are from Don Best.

Atlanta Falcons -2.5/48 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The first game in the rotation is a tasty division game with the Falcons less than 3-point favorites at home. I am surprised this line has come in from 3 where it opened and seemed perfect. I would figure these two teams are even. They each have the exact same expected win total (right between 7 and 7.5) and odds to win the NFC South (7-1). Falcons QB Matt Ryan had started his career nearly invincible at home going 26-4 in his first 30 starts with a 19-9-2 against the spread record. In the past 4 season the Falcons are just 14-17 (ATS) with Ryan starting at QB. 53% of spread and 57% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Falcons with 72% of moneyline bets on the Bucs. The betting public is as confused as I am. There is some concern about Falcons superstar wide receiver Julio Jones who has an ankle injury. He isn’t listed on the injury report and should be good to go, but it is a concern and may be why this line has come in. Trends are negative for both teams with Bucs struggling in week 1 (2-8 ATS in last 10 openers) and in September (2-7 ATS in last 9). The Falcons ended last season terribly going 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games. This will be a pool pick and a tough one to make at that. The total is virtually unchanged as many books still have it at 47.5 where it opened. 70% of the bets are on the over in this dome game. Both teams have a under trends with the under going 7-2 in the Bucs last 9 division games and 22-5-1 in Atlanta last 28 games overall. There is nothing interesting from a wagering perspective there. Last season the Bucs won both games and they both when under (23-20 and 23-19).

Minnesota Vikings -2.5/40 at Tennessee Titans This point spread opened up at 3 back on Tax Day (April 15th) and slowly moved out to 3.5 before the Vikings lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the season on August 30th. It reopened at Vikings -1, but has moved back out. It was helped by the fact Minnesota traded for veteran Sam Bradford to replace Bridgewater, but Bradford might not start. The Vikings have yet to name a starter, though I don’t think it matters all that much. Journeyman Shaun Hill is more likely to be under center and with a year in the system under his belt, he probably is better off than Bradford at this point. 57% of spread and 54% of multi bets are on the Vikings with 53% of moneyline bets on the home Titans. The money bet is pretty much split down the middle as well as the market is providing nothing to work with. When looking at trends there are some long term ones that are both in Minnesota’s favor. The Vikings are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall, while the Titans are 15-35-4 against the spread in their last 53 games. That is quite staggering, but I would look for a regression to the mean as I think Tennessee has a quarterback in Marcus Mariota. He will get an early test against a fierce Vikings defense. The over/under has dropped from 42.5 to 40 with the loss of Bridgewater as now Minnesota will have even more reason to give the rock to running back Adrian Peterson. 57% of the bets are on the under which is well below par. I like the over a bit with that being the case. The weather should be perfect for scoring and I think the Titans offense will be pretty effective this season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5/41 vs. Cleveland Browns This is a pretty ugly matchup as we have the worst team in the league (the Browns) taking on an Eagles team in complete flux. Both teams have new head coaches and quarterbacks. Philadelphia is starting rookie Carson Wentz who is making a huge jump in class from Division 1-AA (FCS) College Football and North Dakota State to Philadelphia and the NFL. The Browns are trying to salvage Robert Griffin III’s career, but have little around him for support. This line has crashed in after opening 7 due to the Eagles trading away Sam Bradford and going with the number two overall selection in this year’s draft at QB. 58% of spread and 56% of parlay and teaser bets are on the Eagles with 62% of moneyline bets on the underdog Browns. This total mixed bag is expected with Wentz’s performance being so unpredictable. Don Best has only one trend for either team, Cleveland is 2-8 against the spread in their last 8 games. That’s good as any trend the Eagles had can be thrown out as they are going to be a very different team after firing head coach Chip Kelly. The over/under dropped accordingly with the Bradford trade from 45 to 41. 54% of the bets are still on the over with 85% of the money on the under. I think you have to be on the money and not on the number of bets here and go with the under. I would expect the Eagles to play at a glacial pace compared to Kelly’s frantic style. The weather should be ok in Philly on Sunday, but there is some wind (10-15 MPH) in the forecast.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5/42 at New York Jets Here is another game where the gambling market isn’t providing any insight. The line opened up 1 and has moved out with 70% of spread and 63% of combination wagers on the Bengals and 62% of the moneyline bets on the Jets. There is not much else to work with as both teams have a couple of injury concerns and key players out due to suspension. Trends are positive in both directions with the Bengals 8-0 against the spread last season on the road and the Jets 8-3 (ATS) in their last 11 at home. This will be another pool pick for sure. The total is down slightly from its 42.5 opener with 55% of the bets on the under. Nothing there either with a very benign weather report aside from a little bit of wind. The under is 7-1 in the Bengals last 8 conference games.

New Orleans Saints -1.5/52 vs. Oakland Raiders This spread is in slightly after opening up 2 with 55% of spread bets on the Saints and 54% of moneyline and 58% of multi bets on the Raiders. Nothing to work with there and only one trend, but one I like a lot. Oakland is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games on FieldTurf. I think the Raiders are the faster more athletic team and will benefit from playing on the speedy carpet in the Superdome. The Saints looked terrible in the preseason losing all 4 games and giving up a total of 100 points, the second most of any team this preseason. The New Orleans defense was terrible last year and I don’t think it has improved even with former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen helming the D. The total is up from 50.5 to 52 with 75% of the bets on the over. It is hard not to agree with the public as this should be a shootout. The Saints are a team that can produce overs and the over is 6-2 in New Orleans last 8 games in September.

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5/44.5 vs. San Diego Chargers This spread is in a half-point after opening 7. The Chiefs will most likely be without running back Jamaal Charles who isn’t back to playing shape after injuring his knee last season. 58% of spread and 66% of combo bets are on Kansas City with 53% of moneyline bets taking the odds with Chargers. Nothing of note there, but the Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on grass and the Chargers are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games within the AFC West. This is another game where it will be extremely hard to make a pick. The over/under is up from 43 to 44.5 with just 54% of the bets on the over, but a whopping 96% of the money (sounds like one massive bet). I would follow that move up and go with the over. Last year the Chiefs won both games in this series 33-3 in San Diego and 10-3 at home. That game was in an awful rain storm, this year weather should be perfect for scoring.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5/44.5 vs. Buffalo Bills We finally have a market mover as the Ravens opened up 2.5-point favorites and now are almost -3.5. Most bookies aren’t there yet, but this line has momentum and it isn’t publically driven. 54% of spread and combination bets are on the Ravens with 69% of moneyline bets on the Bills. That isn’t enough to drive a line out and even though the Bills have some injury/suspension concerns this seems like a smart money move to me. Trends favor the Bills as the Ravens are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games while the Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 season openers. Unless something drastic changes in the market I will be on the Ravens and expect it to be an official selection. The total is up from 43 to 44.5 with 68% of the bets on the over. That is a very efficient marketplace and doesn’t indicate much. The weather is expected to be beneficial for the scoreboard.

Houston Texans -6/44 vs. Chicago Bears There has been some volatility in this point spread since it opened back in April. It opened up 5, went out to 6 then came back into 4 then back out to 6.5 and now is 6. With few games in the NFL ending in a 5-point differential it doesn’t take much cash to move through that number. Almost all of that movement had to do with the health of Texans defensive end, J.J. Watt, who many consider the best defensive player in the league. Obviously with the spread on the higher end of the range, Watt will be good to play. The Bears have a lot of players on the injury list already, almost all of the defensive side of the ball along with a pair of wide receivers. Finally a little conviction by the public with 67% of spread and 75% of parlay and teasers on Houston, but still 60% of the moneyline bets are on underdog Chicago (mmm Chicago dog). I’m sure I will be on the Bears, but I would expect it just to be a public fade pool pick. Although this isn’t very lopsided at all and the Chicago injury list is really long. The total is unchanged although 69% of the bets are on the under. Sportsinsights also is listing a money percentage that I have been quoting as well, 80% of the money is on the under. I’m confused about how the over/under is hanging in at 44, I am definitely leaning towards the over. The Texans have a very talented offense after adding quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller and I mentioned the Bears defensive woes. The Bears should have a productive offense as well though they need to get their receiving corps healthy.

Green Bay Packers -5/48 at Jacksonville Jaguars Finally we have best bet potential as this currently is an 80-20 game. 80% of the spread and 82% of multi bets are on the always popular Packers. Even 69% of the moneyline bets are willing to lay the odds with Green Bay. So this line must have opened up at Packers by 3 or less, right? No, 4.5 and many sportsbooks still have it there. If this point spread starts coming in then you have my exact dream scenario and the Jaguars will be on the best bets all season. Jacksonville defense should be much improved with a couple of huge free agent additions, using the 5th pick in the draft on a cornerback and the 36th pick on a linebacker. They also will see the debut of Dante Fowler Jr. on Sunday the 3rd overall pick in the 2015 draft. Fowler missed all of last season with an injury. The Jags offense is also improved with the addition of running back Chris Ivory and starting the season with a healthy group of weapons for improving quarterback Blake Bortles. Jacksonville are also has the healthier team. The Packers are the current favorites to win Super Bowl 51 on Betfair (8-1, I would sell that!), but I think they have some question marks. They get wide receiver Jordy Nelson back after missing all of last season with a knee injury, but I doubt he is 100%. They didn’t add much at all in the offseason and cut Pro Bowl guard Jose Sitton and lost former Pro Bowl defensive tackle B.J. Raji to retirement/hiatus. It is all pointed towards Jacksonville including a 12-5 record ATS in Week 1 the last 17 years. I do hope that their 10-21-1 against the spread record in their last 32 home games is ancient history and the Jaguars will be back on the upswing. The weather should be an edge for Jacksonville as it is expected to be around 90F degrees and with high humidity and sun it will feel like 100F. The total is up from 47 to 48 with 75% of the bets on the over. This might be another chance to fade the public as I would think the improved Jaguars defense will slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Seattle Seahawks -10.5/44.5 vs. Miami Dolphins There has been a big move in this line as it opened up 7 and is now out to 10.5. Injuries/suspensions account for a lot of that as the Dolphins will be missing a few key players. Most importantly their center Mike Pouncey’s hip will keep him out, that is a huge problem going into Seattle and dealing with that crowd and defense. 58% of spread and 68% of combination bets are on the Seahawks with 56% of moneyline bets on the Dolphins. It seems like there is some smart money that has helped push this point spread out along with who will be missing for Miami. The Dolphins are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games. A lot here is pointing to the Seahawks. This is clearly the best option for “Survivor/Knock Out” pools and if I had 3 picks I would use 2 on them. The over/under opened up at 44 and is either their or a half-point higher. 53% of the bets are on the under and money is split. If anything I like the over here as I could see the Seattle offense make a statement and their defense contribute to the scoring as well. Weather will be fine for scoring and at 65F definitely much more comfortable than the 80F+ you see in the Northeast.

Dallas Cowboys PK/46 vs. New York Giants Big line move here as the Cowboys opened 4-point favorites, but the loss of quarterback Tony Romo has them starting a rookie in 4th round pick Dak Prescott. They will also be starting a rookie running back in odds on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott looked terrific in preseason, but starting an all rookie backfield is a scary proposition. The Giants spent a ton of money in free agency on their defense which was a total sieve last season. The public doubts the Cowboys as 69% of spread, 70% of moneyline and 62% of parlay and teasers are all of the new look Giants. I might have to fade that and considering how poor the Giants first team played in the preseason it isn’t very hard to do. The Cowboys are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games. The total is down on Romo’s injury from 49 to 46 or 46.5. Still 2/3rds of the bets are on the over as many expect the Giants offense to make plays and the Prescott/Elliott duo to be dynamic. I’m not so sure about that and I think the under is probably the better side. The Cowboys under Jason Garrett have a history of being very deliberate and use a lot of the play clock. They should run the ball a lot and keep that clock moving. The Giants defense will almost certainly be improved with the talent influx as well. There are a lot of over trends in this series and for both teams. The under is due as the last 7 matchups between these two teams have gone over.

Indianapolis Colts -3/50.5 vs. Detroit Lions This line has come in from its 4.5 opener and even after pushing past 5 and approaching 5.5. Not sure what has brought this on, but the Lions seem like a smart money play. There are some significant injuries on the Indy side, but I don’t think that accounts for this big a move. 63% of spread and 70% of parlay bets are on the Colts with 66% of the moneyline bets on the Lions. The big money bets are on the Lions as 80% of the spread money and 89% of the outright money is on Detroit. I think the Colts have some major deficiencies on their offensive and defensive lines, while the Lions are pretty stout in the trenches. The Lions will almost certainly be an official selection. The total is up from 49 to 50.5 with 59% of the bets on the over, but 75% of the money. I will go with the line move and the money and likely go over here. The Indianapolis defense is one of the worst in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -7/45 vs. New England Patriots The biggest line move in week 1 as Tom Brady will be suspended for the first 4 games of the season. This was a pick’em game back in April and moved to Cards by 5.5 on the Brady news. It has pushed out further as defensive stalwart Rob Ninkovich has also been suspended for the first quarter of the season and now to a full touchdown with tight end Rob Gronkowski listed as doubtful. This is a shocking turn of events as the Pats without Brady and Gronk are shockingly limited. As you would think 71% of spread and 60% of combination bets are on the Cardinals, though 65% of moneyline bets are on the Patriots. I will probably be on the Cards, but not with a lot of conviction. Both teams have struggled on grass with Arizona 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on the real stuff. The Patriots are even worse as they don’t regularly play on it and are 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 on grass. I remember mentioning this as one of the many reason I liked the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game last season. The over/under dropped obviously as well from 51 to 45 with the Brady and now Gronk news. 52% of the bets are on the under with 97% of the money (???) and that seems like the smart side. I would expect New England to try to shorten the game as much as possible and the Pats defense is still very strong.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3/50 at Washington Redskins (MNF) The line is unchanged here with 67% of spread and 77% of multi bets on the Steelers, 55% of moneyline bets are on Washington. Still that is a nice fade and I never need a reason to take a small home dog, especially on primetime. Pittsburgh is definitely the more injured team and don’t have their running back Le’Veon Bell for the first 3 games. This over/under is down from 50.5 with 2/3rds of the bets on the over. I have no opinion on this total as the market is giving a slight under suggestion, but I don’t trust it with these offenses and perfect weather expected for Monday night.

Los Angeles Rams -2.5/42.5 at San Francisco 49ers (MNF) Another small home dog on Monday night and I’m sure I will be on them again here. The line is unchanged with 71% of spread and 77% of combination bets on Los Angeles (that is odd to type). 56% of moneyline bets are on the Niners, but that obviously doesn’t offset all that Rams action. I think San Fran will be improved with new head coach Chip Kelly and the Rams now being in Los Angeles doesn’t mean much when opening on the road. The Rams have struggled in week 1 going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 openers. San Francisco opened up last season with a dominant performance against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night. The 49ers are 24-6 against the spread in their last 30 games on MNF. Last season the home team won each of the matchups. The total has dropped from 46 to 42.5 as seemingly everyone is on the under here. 80% of the spread bets and 92% of the money bet are on the under. All trends point to under including both games last year going under, 38-17-1 of the last 56 Rams road games have gone under and under is 35-17 in last 52 on grass. On the San Fran side under is 8-2 in last 10 division games and 18-5 in the last 23 home games. All of those trends and all of these bets are ignoring the fact that Chip Kelly is now the 49ers head coach and they should play at a very fast pace on offense. When Kelly was HC of the Philadelphia Eagles he excelled at producing huge plays and points in the special teams. There is no way I would take the under in this game.

Sep
2016
09

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

Definitely the longest I have been on radio consecutively without a break, I hope the guys were able to get all the ads in. Feel like I covered just about everything aside from Major League Baseball which is right now in its home stretch (except for the New York Mets signing Tim Tebow to a minor league contract !?!). I started with NFL and last night’s opener and few picks for Sunday. I then moved on to the Tebow signing, then Ryan Lochte’s suspension for being an idiot in Rio followed by some U.S. Open tennis. We discussed the business end of the PGA tour season as the FedEx Cup is up for grabs. Then we had a surprisingly a pretty comprehensive discussion on the 2016-17 NBA season. Then I was totally shocked when ice hockey became the topic of discussion, both the NHL and the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. Then my favorite part of any show answering some SMS questions which were expectedly about the NFL. I thoroughly enjoyed that, just wish we had more time!

Sep
2016
09

Recap of NFL Opening Night

Denver Broncos 21 – Carolina Panthers 20 Although it wasn’t the best played game the opener of the NFL season came right down to the wire and was won by the slimmest of margins. I wasn’t enthused by this matchup, but it ended up being an entertaining game. Although they seemingly had control of the game the Panthers were unable to avenge their loss in Super Bowl 50. Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian overcame a couple of first half mistakes and looked very capable in leading Denver’s comeback. The Broncos aren’t going to let go of their title easily as they have an extremely talented and balanced team. They have some of the NFL best at many positions and their line play was very solid. If Siemian plays at a similar level the rest of the season the Broncos are going to win a lot of games. The Panthers will certainly take a step back after their 15-1 season last year, but their offense should still be as dynamic. Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last season due to injury, was impactful with 6 catches for 92 and a touchdown. The Panthers defense wasn’t nearly as stout against the run, which I think says more about the Broncos offensive line and running back C.J. Anderson. Their pass defense was strong, but the loss of cornerback Josh Norman will be more evident when going against better quarterbacks, especially the 3 in their division (Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston). I highly doubt that the Panthers will be back in the Super Bowl and it wouldn’t shock me if their 3-year run as NFC South champs comes to an end.

Sep
2016
08

Pick for NFL Opening Night

After a relaxing summer of leisure I reluctantly have to accept it is “Back to School” time. No I’m not going back to college like the hilarious Rodney Dangerfield, but I do have to get back to doing these “homework” assignments. I know that might sound odd as so many of you are excited at the thought of the NFL returning to action and would assume I would have the same or even higher level of enthusiasm. By action of course I mean wagering, tipping competitions, “survivor/knock-out” pools and of course fantasy both season long and daily/weekly leagues. I am happy to report that the ban on New York State residents that went into effect in March has been lifted just in time for the NFL season to kickoff. Every season it takes until Sunday at 1pm on that opening day for me to get excited and until then writing about football feels like a chore. I am not sure exactly how the format will look for this season, but I definitely will have a full Week 1 preview of all games out tomorrow along with a bunch of other features.

Tonight’s opening game doesn’t cut it for me. I agree with Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera and think the NFC Champion Panthers should get to host week 1. I don’t see why the NFL would think we would want to see a rematch of such an underwhelming game. Even if the Panthers were to get “revenge”, the Denver Broncos players who were on the field in February know they won the game that really mattered. As I did last year I will be picking all 256 NFL games this season with the spread. I again will designate the selections as best bets, official picks and pool picks.

Denver Broncos +3 over the Carolina Panthers This is just a pool pick on the opening night even though the market is once again suggesting the Broncos are the pick. Just as was the case in Super Bowl 50 the betting public is on the favored Panthers. Three-quarters of spread and parlay bets are on Carolina along with 60% of the moneyline bets. As with all point spreads in Week 1 we have nearly 5 months of history as many sportsbooks posted lines in mid-April. The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites, but quickly flipped to underdogs as their search to replace Peyton Manning at quarterback came up empty. It pushed out to Panthers by 2.5 when it seemed Mark Sanchez would be the starter under center for Denver. When it became clear it would be Trevor Siemian, who last year in his rookie year took one snap and a knelt down, would start the Panthers neared 3.5-point favoritism. Over the past 24 hours the Panthers have gone from -3 (-125 or 1.80) to -3 (Even) with the Broncos going from +3 (+105) to +3 (-120 or 1.83). I think this is significant and in conflict with the bets coming in on the Panthers. Even with this I cannot make this an official selection as I don’t know what can be expected of Siemian tonight. Obviously being home will help, but this is still a huge spot to be making your NFL debut. I also don’t think you can disregard the revenge factor as the Panthers should be highly motivated while most of the Broncos have that ring in their back pocket.

As for tonight’s over/under it has dropped after opening 43.5 to 40.5 with the entirety of that move occurring in the past ten days. It seems like the smart money and public are both on the under with 60% of bets going that way. That is well under par for a national TV game where 60-40 over would be the norm. If I had to do anything I would side with bookies and go with the over. The Super Bowl was 24-10 and I could see this being a slightly higher scoring affair. Maybe two defensive or special teams not just the one we saw in Santa Clara in February.

Jul
2016
13

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

Start off with a quick recap of Euro 2016 then a question on UFC 200 that I was able to somewhat answer. We then talked a little golf both Olympic and the British Open. Then on the NBA Summer League and Thon Maker and Ben Simmons performances. We continue to chat NBA and the major free agency moves and Tim Duncan retiring. Finally a recap of the Major League Baseball All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby.

Starts at the 36:30 mark!

Jul
2016
13

Picks for the British Open

Again sorry for the very late post, but there is still time this evening to get a bet on before they tee off just after midnight here in the East.
All odds are from the Betfair Exchange.

Rory McIlroy (11.5-1): I picked him in the first two majors of the season and I will stick with him. He is holding up very well in his 3 matchups against the other members of the current Big 4 (D. Johnson, Day and Spieth). Wind doesn’t look to be a big factor and the winner should go very low which both fit McIlroy’s pattern for Major victories. These aren’t the best odds, but of the top 4 favorites, McIlroy is my pick.

Here are a few smokies that could definitely factor and are very useful in pools.

Andy Sullivan (94-1):
Scott Piercy (109-1)
Nicolas Colsaerts (169-1)

Jun
2016
30

US Presidential Race Update

I have been remiss in not updating the Betfair market on the US Presidential election. There has been very little movement since my last update earlier this month.

Hillary Clinton 73.8% +3.6%
Donald Trump 22.0% -1.0%
Bernie Sanders 1.6% -1.9%
Joe Biden 1.3% -.5%

Democratic Party 76%/Republican Party 24% DEMS +2.0%

Odds for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton 95.7% 1.8%
Joe Biden 2.8% +1.0%
Bernie Sanders 1.5% -2.5%

It has been a good month for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. Mrs. Clinton has a firmer grip on the nomination and her Party has added another 2% to make it 76%-24% in favor of the Democrats. She also had good news this week after a House Benghazi Report found no new evidence of wrong doing. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are still hanging on with Biden actually seeing his nomination chances increase, which makes little sense, but is worth noting. There has been a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton’s coughing fits. Could there be a last minute replacement at the Convention with Clinton’s health being the given reason?

Over the past 3 weeks there has been some significant volatility in Donald Trump’s odds. His odds peaked at 25% in the wake of the Orlando nightclub shooting on June 12th. Those gains were quickly lost once Trump opened his mouth. The Donald’s chances dipped to a low of 17.7% on June 21st after just having fired his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Then Trump saw another external event help him. There was the major upset in the “Brexit” vote. Betfair had it 77%-23% going in that the UK would vote to remain in the European Union. This was looked at very favorably for Trump as the supporters for Brexit were similar to Trump supporters: xenophobic and uneducated. You obviously can see my feelings on the subject. To give a more balanced view the Trump/Brexit supporters want the US first and not to beholden to poor treaties, agreements (like with Iran) and trade deals. It does seem like the Brexit vote is a failure of Democracy as the old and uneducated dictated to the young and educated by a 52%-48% margin. Either way Trump’s chances popped 4% (from 18.5% to 22.5%) after the Brexit vote on June 24th and now have settled in to 22% chance at the White House. Another reason for this surge was short covering as I’m sure many of the “punters”/market makers on Betfair lost money being short the UK leaving. Just as Hillary Clinton is ahead in the polls, so was “Stay in the EU”.

Odds for the Republican Nomination

Donald Trump 92.2
Jeb Bush 1.3%
Paul Ryan 1.1%
Field 5.4%

There also has been a lot of movement in Trump’s odds at winning the Republican Nomination. I didn’t even update them last time as they were unchanged from the previous post at 96.6%. However what seemed like a certainty actually saw major doubt. Trump’s low point on June 21st saw his chances at the nomination dip to 84.4%. There was a lot of buzz that the GOP #NeverTrump leaders were making a move to unseat the Billionaire. That seems to be shut down and his odds are back up to 92.2%. Oddly and probably because of shorts in the market Jeb Bush is the 2nd choice. Maybe the GOP has a last minute convention switcheroo? It is so strange that the website that converts Betfair odds into percentage (https://electionbettingodds.com/) for Americans doesn’t even have Bush listed. I will be contacting them via Twitter to rectify. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is the only other Republican with a 1% or better chance at the nomination.

Jun
2016
15

Picks for the 2016 US Open

Here are four golfers that I would pick to win the U.S. Open and/or use in office pools.
(Betfair odds listed)

Rory McIlroy (8.2-1): He was my pick in the Masters and I will stick with him for the second major of the year. He has been playing excellent golf and he is also being supported in the head-to-head markets. It does seem a bit short with such a big field and a difficult course, if you want bang for your buck the next three golfers are more your speed.

Matt Kuchar (43-1): Seemingly every time I at the PGA leaderboards this spring, Kuchar is in the mix. I think he will play well in what should be very difficult conditions at Oakmont Country Club.

Paul Casey (89-1): He is getting backed in his one matchup and buzz around him is very good.

Brendan Steele (229-1): He is getting bet down on Betfair and has support in the head-to-head markets.

Sorry so brief, this tournament snuck up on me!

Jun
2016
11

Spot on the All Night Appetite with Scotty

on SEN 1116 in Melbourne, Australia

NBA Finals into NHL Finals then some Copa America.

Starts at the 27:00 mark!

Jun
2016
09

TV Spot on DML: Unfiltered

on Newsmax TV

Sorry this spot was back on May 25th, 2016, but I’m just posting it now.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth and I join Dennis discuss automation and what it will mean for the American economy.

Here is an article on robotics and white color jobs posted on June 5th on The Daily Beast.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/05/robots-are-taking-white-collar-jobs-too.html