Oct
2011
24

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

telegraph.co.uk

telegraph.co.uk

The Texas Rangers tie up the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at 2 games a piece.  Today, I discuss the pitching choices of each team and my expectations for the games to come.  Plus, the NFL International Series pitted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Chicago Bears in an exciting game at Wembley Stadium, London.  Listen to today’s show for an in depth NFL and MLB World Series rundown and news on the NBA Lockout!

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Oct
2011
22

NFL Picks Video Week 7

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Oct
2011
15

NFL Picks Video Week 6

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Oct
2011
14

Repost of the 2010 NFL Bye Report

Here is a repost of my 2010 NFL Bye Report.  First week of teams off bye weeks:

On the road: Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins

At home: Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens

If you read my NFL selections you will see that I really like teams that are coming off their bye week, especially if they are playing at home.  I feel that the fact that a team is playing after a bye week is factored into the point spread, but it is not fully valued, especially by the public.  Average public betters underrate the importance of both having an extra week of rest (the NFL is a grueling sport especially in the middle of the season) and the coaching staff having an extra week to prepare.  Also rarely factored are that teams like to bring back players from injury after a bye week. This gives a bettor value in backing these teams with that extra week to rest and prepare.

For the 2010 NFL season I picked half (16 of 32) of the teams coming off their bye week.  Of those games, 13 of those teams were playing at home.  I never officially picked against a team coming off their bye (I suggested picking the New York Jets in that MNF game against the Minnesota Vikings who were on the road coming off their bye, the Jets won and covered).  I am very happy to report that those selections produced a record of 9-5-1 (64.3%), in home games the record was 8-4 (66.7%) and in road games 1-1-1.  As for the entire league, I did not include the 2 games that matched up 2 teams both coming off their bye (Houston at Indianapolis and St. Louis at San Francisco, the home team both won outright, split against the spread).  Here’s how the totals break down, the home team was 12-5 (70.6%) outright and 9-7-1 (56.3%) ATS.  For road teams the record was 6-5 (54.5%) outright, 6-4-1 (60%) ATS.  The total outcome regardless whether the team was at home or on the road was 18-10 (64.3%) outright and 15-11-2 (57.7%) against the spread.

Those are very solid numbers all around.  I continue to think that NFL bettors will continue to undervalue teams playing off bye weeks and this factor should be considered heavily when making selections in the NFL. Unfortunately you will need to wait to use this information next season (if there is one), but be aware that things could change as line makers and the public could more properly (in my opinion) value byes.  Tread lightly early in the season (where byes have less importance anyway) and always monitor lines, line moves and public opinion.

If you want to look at extra rest/preparation as a factor consider whether a team has played the previous Monday night, especially if they won the game.  That one day is a factor not so much for rest purposes, but players focus and preparation and coaches prep time.  For the season to this point those stats aren’t very good.  Teams off a Monday night win are 5-4 (44.4%) against the spread (that is bad you are betting against that team) and off a Monday night loss are 5-5 ATS.

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Oct
2011
10

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

bettor.com

bettor.com

Today, the NBA has announced that the first two weeks of the regular NBA season will be cancelled due to the Players vs. Owners labor dispute. I discuss what this means for fans and why a deal seems far off. Listen to today’s show for in depth NFL and MLB playoff coverage, NHL updates, and more!

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Oct
2011
09

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

trb.com

trb.com

The MLB championship series have begun!  Today, I discuss my picks for this year’s NL and AL Championship series, and why I think the Milwaukee Brewers will take the whole thing!  In the NFL, with the Indianapolis Colts suffering an 0-4 season, and Peyton Manning seen eyeing the sidelines, does this mean he will return?  Find out what I think on tonight’s show, and listen to hear more in depth NFL coverage.

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Oct
2011
09

NFL Picks Video Week 5

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Oct
2011
07

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

fromthedugout.com

fromthedugout.com

The MLB playoffs have produced earth shattering results for New York Yankees fans!  Today, I discuss the Yankees’ loss and what to expect from the rest of the playoff series.  And in the NBA negotiations seem very far apart for the Players and the Owners.  Plus in the NFL, I discuss what is happening with Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys.  Listen to today’s show for in depth NFL coverage and picks, NBA updates, and MLB playoff coverage!

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Oct
2011
05

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

sbnation.com

sbnation.com

Today, with the MLB regular season coming to an end I discuss the possibilities and rumors of what went wrong with the Boston Red Sox.  Plus, the NBA Lockout is heating up with Kobe Bryant training in Italy.  Find out what all this could mean for the NBA and hear an in depth NFL analysis on today’s show!

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Oct
2011
03

All Night Appetite (SEN 1116)

everyjoe.com

everyjoe.com

The Australian Baseball team loses to Cuba in the World Cup, however all American eyes were on the MLB Playoffs.  Today, I discuss, in depth, the playoffs so far, and the repercussions in Boston for the Red Sox end of season unravelling.  Plus, in the NFL I answer why teams would forfeit their season for Andrew Luck. Listen to today’s show for MLB, NBA, and NFL updates.

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