David Alcaro: The CHieF

Here is a repost of my 2010 NFL Bye Report.  First week of teams off bye weeks:

On the road: Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins

At home: Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens

If you read my NFL selections you will see that I really like teams that are coming off their bye week, especially if they are playing at home.  I feel that the fact that a team is playing after a bye week is factored into the point spread, but it is not fully valued, especially by the public.  Average public betters underrate the importance of both having an extra week of rest (the NFL is a grueling sport especially in the middle of the season) and the coaching staff having an extra week to prepare.  Also rarely factored are that teams like to bring back players from injury after a bye week. This gives a bettor value in backing these teams with that extra week to rest and prepare.

For the 2010 NFL season I picked half (16 of 32) of the teams coming off their bye week.  Of those games, 13 of those teams were playing at home.  I never officially picked against a team coming off their bye (I suggested picking the New York Jets in that MNF game against the Minnesota Vikings who were on the road coming off their bye, the Jets won and covered).  I am very happy to report that those selections produced a record of 9-5-1 (64.3%), in home games the record was 8-4 (66.7%) and in road games 1-1-1.  As for the entire league, I did not include the 2 games that matched up 2 teams both coming off their bye (Houston at Indianapolis and St. Louis at San Francisco, the home team both won outright, split against the spread).  Here’s how the totals break down, the home team was 12-5 (70.6%) outright and 9-7-1 (56.3%) ATS.  For road teams the record was 6-5 (54.5%) outright, 6-4-1 (60%) ATS.  The total outcome regardless whether the team was at home or on the road was 18-10 (64.3%) outright and 15-11-2 (57.7%) against the spread.

Those are very solid numbers all around.  I continue to think that NFL bettors will continue to undervalue teams playing off bye weeks and this factor should be considered heavily when making selections in the NFL. Unfortunately you will need to wait to use this information next season (if there is one), but be aware that things could change as line makers and the public could more properly (in my opinion) value byes.  Tread lightly early in the season (where byes have less importance anyway) and always monitor lines, line moves and public opinion.

If you want to look at extra rest/preparation as a factor consider whether a team has played the previous Monday night, especially if they won the game.  That one day is a factor not so much for rest purposes, but players focus and preparation and coaches prep time.  For the season to this point those stats aren’t very good.  Teams off a Monday night win are 5-4 (44.4%) against the spread (that is bad you are betting against that team) and off a Monday night loss are 5-5 ATS.